Disturbance near Bahamas may strengthen into tropical storm. What the forecast says
As the National Hurricane Center stopped monitoring Tropical Storm Tammy, forecasters say one of the two remaining systems in the Atlantic Ocean may strengthen into a tropical storm or depression.
If and when it forms into a storm, the disturbance closest to Florida would be called Tropical Storm Vince.
Here’s what’s happening with the two remaining tropical systems, according to the latest hurricane center updates:
Disturbance near Bahamas
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft on Sunday afternoon was investigating a broad area of low pressure, AL96, located a couple of hundred miles east of the central Bahamas, the hurricane center said in its 2 p.m. advisory.
“Early indications from the plane and satellite data are that the system does not have a well-defined surface circulation,” the hurricane center said. “Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for development, though a short-lived tropical depression or storm could still form during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward.”
By Tuesday, however, the hurricane center said that strong upper-level winds and dry air should end the chances of further development while it turns northward,
Formation chance through 48 hours: 60%, down from 70% at the Sunday 8 a.m. advisory.
Formation chance through seven days: 60%, down from 70% at the Sunday 8 a.m. advisory.
Will AL96 impact South Florida?
It’s unlikely that AL96, the system near Bahamas, will have any major impact in South Florida, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.
“The only impact it would have in South Florida would be increased moisture over the local waters,” weather service meteorologist Jennifer Simmons told the Miami Herald on Sunday afternoon.
Simmons said that a trough, an elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure, is expected to keep the disturbance away from the state.
What’s happening with the other disturbance?
A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days over the central or southwestern Caribbean Sea, the hurricane center said in its 2 p.m. Sunday advisory.
“Gradual development thereafter is possible while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph,” the hurricane center said.
Formation chance through 48 hours: near 0%, the same as the 8 a.m. Sunday advisory.
Formation chance through seven days: 20%,the same as the 8 a.m. Sunday advisory.
