Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis
The presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris has been decided, but there are still several downballot races where the winner isn't yet apparent. Control of the House of Representatives is still up in the air, and while ABC News has projected that Republicans will win the Senate, the size of their majority is still TBD. Needless to say, both of these things will have major implications for how easy it will be for Trump to enact his second-term agenda.
However, it could be a while before we know who won these races. Many of them are in states like California, Arizona and Nevada that take days to count all their ballots. So we at 538 are settling in for the long haul with this live blog dedicated to all the outstanding races of the 2024 election. Join us for live updates, analysis and commentary until the last major race is decided.
Latest Developments
Nov 7, 3:54 PM
Alaska's state House flips from bipartisan control to ... bipartisan control?
As I wrote last week, Alaska's state House is currently controlled by a bipartisan coalition led by and made up of mostly Republicans. That coalitions seems to have lost enough members to relegate it to the minority, while the current minority coalition — which is primarily made up of Democrats — seems set to take its place.
While there are still some uncalled races left, the current minority coalition appears to have picked up at least four seats, according to the Alaska Beacon. Democrats flipped two seats, one in North Slope and one in Anchorage, while a coalition-aligned Republican and independent also won races in Anchorage. That Republican, Chuck Kopp, has already been announced as the new majority leader in the House. Two more districts currently held by members of the majority coalition, one in Southwest Alaska and another in Anchorage, could also see flips to the new primarily Democratic coalition.
Meanwhile, the current Republican-led majority coalition has only flipped two seats so far, one in Ketchikan currently held by an independent and one in Mat-Su currently held by Republican, Dan Eastman, a hardline conservative who was not a member of the majority coalition.
In the state Senate, another bipartisan coalition made up of almost every member of the chamber seems set to maintain control. Democrats currently have one more member in that coalition than Republicans, though the Senate president is a Republican.
Nov 7, 3:22 PM
A record number of women will serve as governors
Currently, 12 women serve as their state's governor, a record that will be broken with Republican Kelly Ayotte's win in New Hampshire's governors race. Of the 13 women who will be governor after Ayotte is inaugurated, just four are Republican.
Nov 7, 2:25 PM
In North Carolina, Democrats hold key congressional seat
ABC News reports that Democratic Rep. Don Davis is projected to win his race in North Carolina's 1st District. With 91% of the expected vote in, Davis narrowly leads his Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout, 49% to 48%.
Notably, Buckhout had already conceded on Wednesday afternoon. "While Don and I have different visions, it is obvious to everyone he cares about this district," she wrote in a recent social media post. Given this, it's unlikely she'll request a recount — as she was once considering doing.
Democrats have held this seat since the 1890s. But the party's slim voting margin might be reason to worry — as it's likely the GOP will target this seat in future races. Even ahead of Tuesday, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report said that the district was a "toss-up," and 538's forecast had it listed as "likely Democrat."
Nov 7, 2:19 PM
Gonzalez ekes out win in Texas's 34th District
ABC News is reporting that in Texas's 34th District, Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez is projected to retain control. With 99% of the expected vote reporting, Gonzalez eked out a win against Republican Mayra Flores, 51% to 49%.
Despite a Democratic win here, though, South Texas's overall political shift is incredibly fascinating. Take this example: In Hidalgo County, the most populous in the Rio Grande Valley, Trump beat Harris by 3 percentage points. Compare this to 2020, when Biden won the county by nearly 17 points. Gonzalez might've survived to see another two years in the House, but given the political realignment of Latinos in South Texas, it's likely that Democrats will have to fight even harder for these seats in future elections.
Nov 7, 2:15 PM
Democrats will keep Nevada's 4th District
ABC News reports that Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford is projected to win in Nevada's 4th Congressional District. The district, which stretches from North Las Vegas almost to Reno, was one of the three Democratic-held seats in the state that Republicans hoped to flip. The other two were the 1st, which Democrats are also expected to hold, and the 3rd, in which a winner hasn't been projected and which is very close. The Senate and presidential races in the state are still undecided as well.
Nov 7, 1:50 PM
The size of Republicans' Senate majority is very important
We already know Republicans are going to control the Senate next year — so why are we still tracking any races there? Because the exact number of seats Republicans win is super important.
So far, the GOP has clinched at least 52 Senate seats. By recent standards, that's a downright huge majority (remember, the Senate was tied 50-50 in 2021-22 and Democrats had just a 51-49 majority in 2023-24), but Trump and whoever the next Senate majority leader is would probably prefer more of a cushion. That's because there are a number of Republican senators — namely, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Todd Young and Bill Cassidy — who are no fans of Trump and might not be an automatic vote for his agenda or appointees. If Republicans only win 52 seats, that bloc could serve as a check on Trump if they choose to. However, if Republicans get up to 54 seats, bills could still pass even if all four of those senators defect (thanks to Vice President JD Vance's tie-breaking vote).
The size of Republicans' majority also makes a huge difference to the battle for Senate control in 2026. Democrats don't have a ton of pickup opportunities on the 2026 Senate map: Maine and North Carolina are probably the best ones, but Ohio, Texas and Iowa could be competitive as well. If Republicans stay at 52 seats, then Democrats have a plausible path to winning back the chamber by flipping the first two and maybe picking off one of the others too. But if Republicans get up to 54 seats, Democrats would have to win all five of those seats (and not lose any of their own). That's a tall order.
Nov 7, 12:37 PM
Ranked-choice ballots in Alaska could decide House control
Republicans currently lead the race for House control, 208 seats to 193 for the Democrats, according to projections reported by ABC News. There are 34 outstanding House seats. The GOP need to win 10 more of those (a total of 218) to win a majority in the chamber.
Republicans currently lead vote counts in 13 seats: 1 remaining Solid Republican seats 3 Likely Republican seats, and 4 Lean Republicans. They lead in 3 Toss-up seats and 2 Lean Democrat seats. If Republicans win all of these seats, they would win 221 seats in the House, one seat fewer than the party won in the 2022 midterms.
However, it's likely that Republicans do not win all the seats they currently lead in. The race for the House is still firmly up in the air. But it will take some time for us to know the results. That's because there will likely be a recount in IA-01, where the Republican candidate leads by 0.1 percentage points. And five of the remaining Republican-advantage seats are in California, where will take a few days in most races, and a few weeks in some, to finish counting enough ballots to know whether one candidate has an insurmountable lead.
Then, there's Alaska's At-Large district. Per the Alaska secretary of state, the Last Frontier is done reporting any new votes until Nov. 12. Additional ballots will be counted through Nov. 15. The race there is currently way too close to identify a leader. With 71 percent of the vote reporting, the Republican candidate, Nick Begich, currently leads with 49.8% percent of the vote. But that would not be enough to win the seat; Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, so the results you’ll see through Nov. 15 will reflect voters’ first choices only. If no candidate receives a majority of first-place votes, we won’t know the winner until Nov. 20, when the state runs its ranked-choice tabulations.
That means if the race for control of the House is comes down to one or two seats, we may not know who wins until the 20th. And no matter what happens, if the Republicans do win, at this rate, they'll have a very tenuous majority in which it will be tough to get anything done.
Nov 7, 12:22 PM
Who's on track to win Arizona?
Arizona is one of two states in which we still don't know who won the presidential election and one of four where the Senate winner is still uncertain.
With 70% of the expected vote reporting in the presidential race, Trump currently has 52% and Harris has 47%. If you do the math, Harris would need to win about 56% of the outstanding vote in order to take the lead.
But with 70% of the expected vote reporting in the U.S. Senate race, Gallego is at 50% and Lake is at 48%. Lake would need to win at least about 52% of the uncounted ballots to emerge victorious.
Nov 7, 11:36 AM
The Maine Event
Hi everyone! Now that my time on ABC News’s House Decision Desk has come to a close, I’ll be chiming in here over the next few days as we get final results in outstanding races across the country.
First up is in Maine, where ABC News reports that Harris is projected to win statewide. She currently leads, 53% to 45%. But Maine is one of the two states that allocates electoral votes by congressional district, and Trump carried the 2nd District, so the state’s electoral votes actually split 3 for Harris and 1 for Trump.
If you’re wondering why there’s no projection in the Senate race despite Sen. Angus King currently running 18 points ahead of his nearest opponent, that’s because King has 52 percent of the vote, and will need to finish with above 50 percent to avoid heading to a ranked choice voting instant runoff against his two opponents, Republican Demi Kouzounas and Democrat David Costello. King would be highly favored in an instant runoff as well.
Nov 7, 11:34 AM
Brown doesn't need much to catch up
As Geoff mentioned, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is carrying a slight lead over Republican challenger Sam Brown, but with 7% of the expected vote still outstanding, Brown needs to win only about 57% of the remaining expected vote to catch up. If the county partisanship holds up in the way Geoff just described, Brown winning 57% of the remaining expected vote is possible.
