US says Russia could invade 'any day now'; Ukraine formally asks about troop buildup: What we know

·10 min read

WASHINGTON – President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke Sunday about the potential of a Russian invasion of the eastern European country.

Biden reiterated during the 50-minute call that the U.S. would “respond swiftly and decisively” should Russian President Vladimir Putin send Russian forces into Ukraine, a White House statement said. The two also agreed they’d continue “pursuing diplomacy and deterrence in response to Russia’s military buildup.”

On Sunday, Ukraine’s top diplomat, Dmytro Kuleba, said Russia had given no response to a request Ukraine had filed Friday for Russia to explain its troop buildup on their shared border.

The Ukrainian government filed the formal request through the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, a forum for countries to discuss international security. Ukraine’s request came after the Baltic states filed a similar request to Belarus, which also did not respond.

“If Russia is serious when it talks about the indivisibility of security,” Kuleba wrote in a tweet, “it must fulfill its commitment to military transparency in order to de-escalate tensions and enhance security for all.”

Zelenskyy, who has warned that the Biden administration’s broadcasting of an imminent invasion is "provoking panic” around the world, asked Biden to visit Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, to show calm, Ukrainian officials told CNN. Biden is unlikely to make such a trip, White House aides have said.

Sullivan: Russia has capacity to invade Ukraine 'this week'

Biden's top national security aide warned again Sunday that the Russian military has the capacity to invade Ukraine "this week" under the pretext of a "false flag" operation portraying Ukrainians as the aggressors.

"The way they have built up their forces, the way they have maneuvered things in place, makes it a distinct possibility there will be major military action very soon," national security adviser Jake Sullivan said during an interview on CNN's "State of the Union."

Biden spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday morning from Camp David. The president reiterated the response of the U.S. and its allies to Russian aggression in Ukraine would be quick and decisive, according to a White House statement. Biden and Zelenskyy reaffirmed "the importance of continuing to pursue diplomacy and deterrence."

The Biden administration has warned Americans in Ukraine to leave the country because of the threat of invasion.

"This is the time, if you are an American in Ukraine, you should be making your way out," Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told "Fox News Sunday."

Sullivan did not offer any specifics of a potential Russian operation, though he stressed that the U.S. has shared its intelligence with NATO allies and Ukraine. He cautioned that a Russian invasion would lead to severe human suffering on both sides and a high civilian toll.

A Russian invasion would "begin with a significant barrage of missiles and bomb attacks" followed by "an onslaught of a ground force moving across the Ukrainian frontier. Again, where innocent civilians could get caught in the crossfire or get trapped in places they could not move from," Sullivan said.

More: The spark for a wider war? Why Americans should care about Russia's aggression against Ukraine

Why might Russia want to invade Ukraine?

At the core of the current crisis between Russia and Ukraine is the Kremlin's fear of creeping liberal democracy near its border threatening Putin's rule and a desire to reassert its perceived sphere of influence and status as a global power.

In 2014, Ukrainians protested and successfully ousted the country's pro-Kremlin leader, Viktor Yanukovych, he refused to sign a political and trade agreement with the European Union. Since then, public sentiment in Ukraine has trended toward a desire to combat widespread corruption in government and a desire to align the country more closely with Western institutions like the E.U., NATO and the U.S.

Russian forces invaded Crimea, a region of southern Ukraine, shortly after Yanukovych's ouster and have supported separatist forces in the east of the country since. At least 14,000 people have been killed in the fighting.

The U.S. and NATO have both ideological and strategic interests in combatting Russian aggression in Ukraine. The U.S. both wants to support a fledgling democracy and stand up for the rules-based international order Washington helped establish in the 20th century.

US: Sharing intelligence 'to stop a war'

The U.S. and NATO allies have in recent weeks publicized a series of intelligence reports detailing Russia's expected strategies to vandalize Ukrainian cybersystems and critical infrastructure, spread disinformation in the country and marshal troops for an invasion.

The strategy has come under some criticism from Ukraine's leaders for its potential to stir panic, though Biden administration officials have stood by the strategy.

“We’re not putting forward this intelligence to start a war, which has happened in the past," Sullivan said. "We are putting forward this intelligence to stop a war."

Biden warned Putin on Saturday that an invasion of Ukraine would result in "swift and severe costs for Russia" during a high-stakes hourlong phone call that failed to ease rising tensions.

A senior Biden administration official described the call as "professional" but said the dialogue resulted in "no fundamental change in the dynamics that have been unfolding now for several weeks."

Biden told Putin that "if Russia undertakes a further invasion of Ukraine, the United States together with our Allies and partners will respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on Russia," according to the White House.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, seen at the White House press briefing on Feb. 11, 2022, said on Feb. 13 that intelligence suggests a Russian invasion of Ukraine could be imminent.
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, seen at the White House press briefing on Feb. 11, 2022, said on Feb. 13 that intelligence suggests a Russian invasion of Ukraine could be imminent.

Airlines avoid Ukraine

Some airlines have canceled or diverted flights to Ukraine amid heightened fears that an invasion by Russia is imminent, despite intensive weekend talks between the Kremlin and the West.

Russia denies it intends to invade but has massed well over 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border and has sent troops to exercises in neighboring Belarus. U.S. officials say Russia's buildup of firepower has reached the point where it could invade on short notice.

Dutch airline KLM has canceled flights to Ukraine until further notice, the company said Saturday.

Dutch sensitivity to potential danger in Ukrainian airspace is high in the wake of the 2014 shooting down of a Malaysian airliner over an area of eastern Ukraine held by Russia-backed rebels. All 298 people aboard died, including 198 Dutch citizens.

The Ukrainian charter airline SkyUp said Sunday its flight from Madeira, Portugal, to Kyiv was diverted to the Moldovan capital Chisinau after the plane's Irish lessor said it was banning flights in Ukrainian airspace.

Ukrainian presidential spokesman Serhii Nykyforov told The Associated Press that Ukraine has not closed its airspace. A statement from the Infrastructure Ministry said, "Some carriers are experiencing difficulties associated with fluctuations in the insurance markets."

Diplomacy ongoing, but West tells citizens to leave Ukraine

The Putin-Biden call, after a call between Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron earlier in the day, came at a critical moment for what has become the biggest security crisis between Russia and the West since the Cold War. U.S. officials believe they have mere days to prevent an invasion and enormous bloodshed in Ukraine.

While the U.S. and its NATO allies have no plans to send troops to Ukraine to fight Russia, an invasion and resulting punishing sanctions could reverberate far beyond the former Soviet republic, affecting energy supplies, global markets and the power balance in Europe.

Biden was clear with Putin that "while the United States remains prepared to engage in diplomacy, in full coordination with our Allies and partners, we are equally prepared for other scenarios," the White House statement said.

More: Russia-Ukraine explained: Inside the crisis as US, allies await next move

An instructor shows a woman how to use a Kalashnikov assault rifle, as members of a Ukrainian far-right group train, in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Feb. 13, 2022. U.S. officials say Russia's buildup of firepower has reached the point where it could invade on short notice.
An instructor shows a woman how to use a Kalashnikov assault rifle, as members of a Ukrainian far-right group train, in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Feb. 13, 2022. U.S. officials say Russia's buildup of firepower has reached the point where it could invade on short notice.

Yuri Ushakov, Putin's top foreign policy aide, said that while tensions have been escalating for months, in recent days "the situation has simply been brought to the point of absurdity."

He said Biden mentioned the possible sanctions that could be imposed on Russia, but "this issue was not the focus during a fairly long conversation with the Russian leader."

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is flying to Ukraine and Russia this week in an effort to help defuse escalating tensions. Germany is among the nations that have called on its citizens to leave Ukraine as quickly as possible, including the U.S. and Britain.

Ahead of his first visits as chancellor to Kyiv on Monday and Moscow on Tuesday for meetings with the Ukrainian and Russian presidents, Scholz renewed his warning to Russia, as well as his advocacy of continuing diplomacy in multiple formats.

“It is our job to ensure that we prevent a war in Europe, in that we send a clear message to Russia that any military aggression would have consequences that would be very high for Russia and its prospects, and that we are united with our allies,” Scholz told the German parliament’s upper house on Friday.

The U.S. State Department late Friday directed most staff at its embassy in Kyiv to evacuate as the White House warned a Russian invasion of Ukraine could be imminent.

The embassy is suspending consular services but will still provide some emergency services with a small team remaining. The embassy will operate at a "bare minimum" to maintain "core functions," according to a senior State Department official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The move comes as Washington has ratcheted up warnings for Americans to leave the country. If a conflict materializes, Americans in Ukraine should not expect the U.S. military to rescue them, the official said Saturday morning, adding: "It isn't just time to leave Ukraine. It is past time for private citizens to leave Ukraine."

Canada has shuttered its embassy in Kyiv and relocated its diplomatic staff to a temporary office in Lviv, located in the western part of the country, Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly said Saturday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has downplayed concerns about an invasion, urging the country to remain calm.

"I believe that today in the information space there is a lot of information," he said Saturday.

More: How big is Ukraine's military compared to Russia's? How long could Ukrainians hold off an attack?

Intelligence suggests invasion this week

The timing of any possible Russian military action remains a key question.

The U.S. picked up intelligence that Russia is looking at Wednesday as a target date, according to a U.S. official familiar with the findings. The official, who was not authorized to speak publicly and did so only on condition of anonymity, would not say how definitive the intelligence was.

Further U.S.-Russia tensions arose on Saturday when the Defense Ministry summoned the U.S. Embassy's military attaché after it said the navy detected an American submarine in Russian waters near the Kuril Islands in the Pacific. The submarine declined orders to leave, but departed after the navy used unspecified "appropriate means," the ministry said.

Adding to the sense of crisis, the Pentagon ordered an additional 3,000 U.S. troops to Poland to reassure allies.

In addition to the more than 100,000 ground troops that U.S. officials say Russia has assembled along Ukraine's eastern and southern borders, the Russians have deployed missile, air, naval and special operations forces, as well as supplies to sustain a war. This week, Russia moved six amphibious assault ships into the Black Sea, augmenting its capability to land marines on the coast.

More: Why is Vladimir Putin threatening Ukraine? Respect, fear, power at play in Russian leader's motivations

Biden has bolstered the U.S. military presence in Europe as reassurance to allies on NATO's eastern flank. The 3,000 additional soldiers ordered to Poland come on top of 1,700 who are on their way there. The U.S. Army also is shifting 1,000 soldiers from Germany to Romania, which like Poland shares a border with Ukraine.

Russia is demanding that the West keep former Soviet countries out of NATO. It also wants NATO to refrain from deploying weapons near its border and to roll back alliance forces from Eastern Europe – demands flatly rejected by the West.

Contributing: The Associated Press; Joey Garrison, USA TODAY

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: US says Russian invasion could happen 'any day now': What we know

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