Andy Behrens, Matt Harmon and Tank Williams offer up their favorite player props for week 9.
MATT HARMON: It's prop time, people. You know the drill. We each discuss a favorite NFL prop bet and then decide if we like the over or under for everybody else's. I came in here talking a lot of junk the last two weeks and I believe I took the over on Michael Gallup and I believe I took the over on Elijah Moore two straight weeks.
I don't think there's been no stats recorded for either of those two players, so I'm not doing so well. So hoping to bounce back this week. Or maybe I'm just going to trail you guys, since maybe you guys are actually smarter than me. I don't know. I'm fully untilt. Tank, tell us your prop for the week while I try to calm myself down over here.
TANK WILLIAMS: Well, if any of you guys caught the Stanford score last night, you'll see that we got the beat down by Washington State, which means that whenever Stanford gets beat down on the college level, somebody in the professional level ball. So that's why I'm going Zach Ertz over 38 and 1/2 receiving yards at minus 115. This is an amazing match-up.
Tight ends have averaged 8 and 1/2 targets, 7 receptions, 71 yards in the tub against the Seattle Seahawks defense. This is a prime example of where the teams, when they played a couple of weeks ago, the total in that game was 28. I expect this to be the exact opposite. I believe this is going to be a sneaky shootout and I believe that my man Kyler Murray could be a blowout spot for him and I think he's going to target Ertz, he's going to target Nuke a lot, and I believe both of these guys should be able to go off against the Seattle Seahawks.
MATT HARMON: I'm going to disagree with Tank right off the top here. And maybe, again, this is not the best strategic thing to do.
TANK WILLIAMS: Maybe not.
MATT HARMON: But look, DeAndre Hopkins has come back and been the center of the universe. Well, I mean, you're in third place, pal, so calm down. But anyways, we'll get to that in a little bit.
TANK WILLIAMS: Breaks after this weekend.
MATT HARMON: DeAndre Hopkins, he's come back and been the center of the universe for this passing team. They still got Rondale Moore. And the Seahawks defense, Andy, has taken a step forward over the last four weeks, have been really, really good. So I am going under on the Zach Ertz line here. Andy, what say you?
ANDY BEHRENS: Oh, it's just such an inviting line and that was going to be my point, of course. As soon as Hopkins came back, he is just drawing all the targets. He's got back to back weeks with 10 catches, and it's hurt Zach Ertz. But man, 38 and 1/2 is so low.
This doesn't take a lot. I think he gets there and I think this is a fun shoot out of a match-up. So I'm going to be with Tank here. I'm going to take the over.
MATT HARMON: Oh God, this is not good strategically for me, not good. But I will go with a prop that I feel really, really good about. All right, enough messing around with like fringe receivers. Let's talk about a star here. Amon-Ra St. Brown, I'm taking the over on 6 and 1/2 catches for him this week.
Look, we know, we know the deal here. TJ Hockenson, off the map. D'Andre Swift, banged up a little bit. Amon-Ra St. Brown, I think, is probably healthier now than he's ever been in the last couple of weeks.
He's still getting the third highest in the league targets per route run. This is a decent match-up here against the Packers, who have some good players in their pass defense, but I think they can exploit some of those zone coverage plays with Amon-Ra St. Brown over the middle of the field. There's no way that you guys disagree with me. Tank, you can't disagree with me on this one. I'm taking the over on 6 and 1/2 catches, 7 or more for St. Brown this week.
TANK WILLIAMS: This is interesting. I was just going back to see what Stefon Diggs did against this team and last week he had six receptions. And I understand that they probably have a lot more options to throw at than the Detroit Lions currently. Man, he's a target monster, though.
This is actually tough, because I believe there's a likelihood that he'll probably go over, but I need to catch up. And then when I look at a guy like Stefon Diggs, who only has six receptions, and now Amon-Ra St. Brown needs to get seven, I believe I can justify taking the under. So I think I'm going to go under.
MATT HARMON: Oh, Andy, what a shame. You're on the right side of history here, though.
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, I am on the right side of this one. I never take an under with Amon-Ra St. Brown. When he's healthy and good to go, you're talking 8, 9 catches, you're talking 100 yards. You're usually talking without a touchdown.
He's about as bankable as it gets when he is healthy. I can't take the in here. I'd like to. I'd like to differentiate a little bit, but I just can't do it here. Amon-Ra St. Brown is like an absolute top-level star when healthy.
MATT HARMON: Yeah, that is correct and I think he is healthy. Now Andy, finish us up here with your prop.
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah, you mentioned it, enough with fringe players. Let's talk about supernova-level stars.
MATT HARMON: It's a kicker.
ANDY BEHRENS: So of course, I'm talking about Justin Fields. No, it's not a kicker, but I am going to go with Justin Fields. Thank you for putting kickers back into play in this contest. I will do that next week.
Justin Fields prop for rushing yards in this one is 50 and 1/2. He's crushed this in the last three weeks. He's gone over this total in four of the last five and done it pretty easily. He's getting a lot more carries right now, a lot of them are designed rush attempts.
And you look at the match-up against Miami. Yes, the defense got better at the trade deadline, but that team has allowed the fifth most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. I think he clears this pretty comfortably.
He probably clears it within three quarters. What say you? I assume everyone agrees.
TANK WILLIAMS: Yeah, well me, I was looking at this prop actually earlier in the week, So. There's no way I can say when I thought this was a pretty good prop at the time. So even though I want to differentiate, I can't with this one. So I'm going to have to tag along and go with the over on this one, because I believe that he's going to use his legs a lot, especially if you have a guy like Bradley Chubb chasing you from one side now.
ANDY BEHRENS: Yep.
MATT HARMON: Well, I think from a football standpoint, a lot of man coverage on the back end for that Miami Dolphins defense, we typically know, as you mentioned Andy, the stats prove it out. Rushing quarterbacks can get rolling on man coverage defenses. And hey, it makes sense from a football standpoint to take the over here.
It makes zero sense from a strategic standpoint to not take the over here, so yeah, I'll be going over as well on this one. And with that, let's take a look at the standings that are officially too close for comfort. But your guy, the people's champ, everyone's favorite, me, is still in first place.
TANK WILLIAMS: Yeah.
ANDY BEHRENS: It is close.
TANK WILLIAMS: Kind of pretty in the light, though.
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah.
MATT HARMON: No it doesn't. Just, can I cover? Is there any way I can graphically, can I cover the 0-3?
Just don't look at that. Look at the results. Look at the final results over here.
TANK WILLIAMS: Yeah. Just remember how fast it happens. Everybody was high on the Rams and the Bucs and all that coming into the season and look where we are now. We may be seeing the same thing going from the best man with the best hair in the business. The downfall has begun.
ANDY BEHRENS: Remember when it looked like Harmon was running away with this thing? This is nice to see. We're, like, one week away from catching up.