What the polls got right about the 2019 election

A person with an umbrella passes by the the Bonsor Recreation Complex polling station on Election Day in Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada October 21, 2019. REUTERS/Lindsey Wasson

Monday was not only a good night for the Liberal Party of Canada – it also turned out to be a pretty decent night for pollsters.

With results still pouring in late Monday, the Liberals had managed to secure 156 seats – 14 short of the 170 needed for a majority in the House of Commons. The Conservatives secured 121 seats, while the Bloc Quebecois has 32 seats and the NDP won 25.

In the days leading up the 2019 Canadian election, polls across the board had the Conservatives and Liberals in a deadlock when it came to overall support – and while the seat count doesn’t reflect a tie, both parties managed to split the popular vote on Monday, with the Tories holding onto a slight edge late into the night.

With 322 of the 388 ridings called, the Liberals had 33.1 per cent of the popular vote compared to the Conservative’s 34.4 per cent. The Bloc Quebecois won 8.28 per cent of the popular vote, while the NDP held 15.6 per cent. The results are largely in line with what pollsters had predicted in the days leading up to the election.

The most recent Nanos Research poll, commissioned by CTV News and the Globe and Mail, found that the race was still close as of Sunday, with the Conservatives holding onto a slight edge in support over the Liberals. When asked the question, “If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preference?”, 32.5 per cent of respondents were in support of the Tories, followed by the Liberals at 31.7 per cent. The NDP had 20.8 per cent support, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (7.2 per cent), and the Green Party of Canada (6.0 per cent).

Another poll, conducted by Mainstreet Research on Sunday, found that while the the Conservatives had a “statistically insignificant lead” over the Liberals when it came to the popular vote, Justin Trudeau’s party would still win the most seats.

“A Conservative plurality is possible tomorrow, though unlikely, while a Liberal plurality is very likely,” Mainstreet Research CEO Quito Maggi had said in a statement Sunday.