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2015 Politics preview: Harper and Duffy and Peladeau, oh my!

Federal Election

In late February or early March the Harper government will table its 2015/16 budget.

For all intents and purposes, that will be the beginning of the federal election campaign.

The Tories will use the surplus budget to tout their economic prowess; they’ll contend that they are the only party with the experience and ability to steward Canada through challenging economic times.

The Liberals will try to portray the Harper Conservatives as a tired, old and arrogant government that needs to be ousted and replaced by ‘new solutions, new ideas and a new way of doing politics.’

And the New Democrats will push the narrative that they are only party “ready” to replace the Tories.

It may be a nasty campaign. The Conservatives have a significant financial advantage in terms of money raised, and, as we’ve seen in the past, aren’t afraid to use their resources to attack other party leaders. The Liberals have vowed to fight back.

The election is scheduled for Oct. 19.

Suspended Senator Mike Duffy. (CBC)
Suspended Senator Mike Duffy. (CBC)

Mike Duffy Trial

An Ontario Court Justice has set aside 41 days in April, May and June of 2015 to hear the case against suspended Senator Mike Duffy. Duffy has been charged with 31 counts of fraud and breach of trust related to his expense claims.

Also at issue is a $90,000 payment, which Duffy received from Nigel Wright, the prime minister’s former chief of staff. Duffy denies any wrongdoing and says that he’s looking forward to defending himself.

The case – which will be heard before a judge and not a jury – will be heard just months before the election.

While it’s unclear whether or not Harper will be forced to sit in the witness stand, many of his close aides will likely have to. The likes of Nigel Wright, former Senate majority leader Marjory LeBreton, Conservative chief fundraiser Irving Gerstein and the PMO’s legal team will likely be called to testify.

Essentially, the trial could amount to three months of bad news stories about the PMO and its inner workings.

A TransCanada Keystone Pipeline pump station. (Reuters)
A TransCanada Keystone Pipeline pump station. (Reuters)

Pipeline Politics

Canadian politicians will certainly be watching lawmakers in the United States regarding the Keystone Pipeline.

In January, the soon-to-be Republican Senate majority is expected to pass a bill approving the project, which could potentially transport 830,000 barrels of oil per day from northern Alberta to the Gulf of Mexico.

The move could still be vetoed by Barack Obama, who continues to publicly question the merits of the project.

On this side of the border, the political debate will be focussed on two other oil pipelines: Northern Gateway and Energy East.

Last June, the Harper government accepted the National Energy Board’s decision to impose 209 conditions – ranging from wildlife monitoring to spill response  on the Enbridge Northern Gateway project, a a $6.5 billion mega-pipeline which would transport bitumen from northern Alberta to Kitimat on the west coast of British Columbia.

Enbridge is currently working through the pre-construction conditions while several First Nations and environmental groups pursue legal options to stop the project.

And then there’s Energy East – a project to convert an existing 4,600-kilometre natural gas pipeline to an oil transportation pipeline which can carry 1.1 million barrels of crude oil per day from Alberta and Saskatchewan to refineries in eastern Canada.

While most premiers across the country are on board with the project, Ontario’s Kathleen Wynne and Quebec’s Philippe Couillard may have thrown a wrench in the plans in November, when they announced that they would impose seven conditions before they approve it.

Pipelines were a hot button political issue in 2014. Expect them to be an even hotter one in 2015.

PKP to take PQ helm?

The common refrain across the country is that Quebec’s sovereignty movement is dead: The separatist Bloc Quebecois only has two seats in the House of Commons and the Parti Quebecois was handily beaten by the Liberals in April's provincial election.

Enter Pierre Karl Peladeau, the 53-year-old billionaire former head of Quebecor, who is now making a run for the PQ leadership.

While his political abilities have yet to be proven, Peledau has become a political celebrity in the mould of Justin Trudeau and Lucien Bouchard.

There are now federalists in La Belle Province who worry that Peledau’s charisma could manifest itself in to the second coming of Bouchard; that he may be able to elicit enough public support for another Quebec referendum in a way that former PQ Premier Pauline Marois was never able to do.

The PQ leadership vote is scheduled to take place in May.

A recent Leger poll ranked PKP ahead of the other five other contenders, with 59 per cent support.

Christine Elliott announces her intention to run for the Ontario PC leadership. (CP Photo)
Christine Elliott announces her intention to run for the Ontario PC leadership. (CP Photo)

Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leadership

The Ontario Progressive Conservatives are in another rebuild phase following their fourth consecutive general election defeat last Fall.

The first part of the rebuild is a leadership race that is certain to heat up in the first half of 2015.

So far there are five declared candidates including MP Patrick Brown and MPPs Lisa MacLeod, Vic Fedeli, Monte McNaughton and Christine Elliott, the widow of former finance minister Jim Flaherty.

Political analyst Maddie Di Muccio recently told Yahoo Canada News that the challenge for all the candidates will be to demonstrate they can actually win a general election.

"The PCs have lost five elections in a row and the membership is unsettled. Christine, Monte, Vic and Lisa all have ties to Tim Hudak that they have to overcome to convince people that they can succeed where Hudak failed,” Di Muccio, a former Newmarket city councillor, said via email.

The deadline for entering the race is January 30th.

The new leader will be elected May 9, 2015.

War in Iraq

In October, to the chagrin of the opposition parties, Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced his government’s 6-month commitment to join the U.S. led airstrikes against ISIS over Iraq.

That commitment ends in April, and Harper will be faced with an important political decision: Should Canada extend its mission in an election year?

While Canadians seemed to support the initial mission, public opinion about war can change quickly.

Will it become a ballot box issue?