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What's in store for byelections in B.C., Quebec and Ontario


The Liberals are embroiled in controversy, but the New Democrats appear to have the most to lose in three federal byelections taking place Monday.

The NDP currently holds two of the three seats up for grabs Burnaby South in British Columbia and Montreal’s Outremont. These ridings were held by New Democrats Kennedy Stewart and former NDP leader Tom Mulcair, respectively.

There’s also a byelection in York-Simcoe, a riding located north of Toronto that was most recently held by Peter Van Loan for the Conservatives. The former Tory government House leader first won the seat in 2004 and retained it in four subsequent elections, making it a Conservative stronghold.

Here’s a brief breakdown of each federal riding and what to expect.

Burnaby South

For many political commentators, all eyes will be on Burnaby South. That’s where NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is trying to win his first federal seat. Securing this riding will allow Singh to finally have a voice in the House, more than 500 days after winning leadership of the party.

There’s been talk of the party finding a new leader if Singh is unable to take Burnaby South. NDP MPs reportedly warned Singh that he will be replaced as leader if he doesn’t win his byelection, according to CBC News.

Former NDP national director Karl Belanger had previously told Yahoo Canada that Singh remains relatively unknown for many Canadian voters, which is a challenge and an opportunity for the party.

“He needs to find a way to connect with [voters] and to tell a story that they can relate to,” Belanger said. “So far, he has been unable to establish that kind of narrative.”

One factor that may be at play is the fact that Singh is running as a parachuted candidate, vying for a riding he’s not originally from. Singh was born in Ontario and before becoming the federal NDP leader, he was an MPP for the Ontario NDP.

An online poll conducted by Yahoo Canada found that out of more than 7,000 respondents, 91 per cent did not think it was OK for politicians to run for office outside of their home riding.

The other candidates running in Burnaby South are Richard Lee (Liberals), Jay Shin (Conservatives), Laura-Lynn Thompson (People’s Party of Canada), Terry Grimwood (independent), and Valentine Wu (independent).

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is trying to secure a place in the House of Commons with his first run at being an MP in the Burnaby South byelection, one of three being held Monday across Canada. Photo from The Canadian Press.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is trying to secure a place in the House of Commons with his first run at being an MP in the Burnaby South byelection, one of three being held Monday across Canada. Photo from The Canadian Press.
Outremont

This riding will be a critical test for the NDP as it is the only one in Quebec, a province that has been kind to New Democrats in recent years. The seat had historically been a Liberal stronghold until Mulcair won it for New Democrats in 2007. This time around, with Mulcair out of the picture, some are saying there’s no clear favourite while others call it a bellwether byelection.

No one knows what the mostly French-speaking province has in store for the New Democrats under Singh. The party had success growing support in Quebec under Jack Layton and Mulcair, but Singh’s presence is different because he wears a religious symbol.

Last year, the Coalition Avenir Québec stormed to a majority government victory in the provincial election while promising to introduce a ban on public sector workers wearing religious symbols on the job.

“There’s no question that wearing a religious symbol, the way he does, will have an impact on the share of the electorate,” Belanger told Yahoo Canada. “For a big share of the electorate, it is a non-starter. So New Democrats have to deal with that reality.”

Candidates for Outremont include William Barrett (independent), Rachel Bendayan (Liberals), Daniel Green (Greens), Michael Duchesne (Bloc Québécois), Jasmine Louras (Conservatives), Julia Sanchez (NDP), James Seale (People’s Party of Canada).

York-Simcoe

Ontario voters have more options than those in B.C. or Quebec.

The Conservatives have managed to hold onto this riding through three different prime ministers since it was re-established 15 years ago. During the most recent election in 2015, Van Loan secured more than half of the votes (50.2 per cent), followed by the Liberals at 37.8 per cent, the NDP at 8.9 per cent and the Greens at 3.1 per cent, according to Elections Canada.

Scot Davidson, the candidate running for the Tories in place of Van Loan, told CBC News this byelection is a referendum on the Liberal government. He’s been expressing confidence that the riding will stay blue after Monday. Meanwhile, Shaun Tanaka is hoping the second time is a charm for her after unsuccessfully running for the Liberals in the last general election.

The other candidates running in York-Simcoe are Dorian Baxter (Progressive Canadian Party), Keith Dean Komar (Libertarians) Robert Geurts (People’s Party of Canada), Mathew Lund (Greens), Jessa McLean (NDP), Adam Suhr (National Citizens Alliance), and John Turmel (independent).