Advertisement

Why Mercedes should be relieved at Austrian GP victory, despite being in a class of their own

Valtteri Bottas of Finland driving the (77) Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team Mercedes W11 leads Lewis Hamilton of Great Britain driving the (44) Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team Mercedes W11 during the Formula One Grand Prix of Austria at Red Bull Ring on July 05, 2020 in Spielberg, Austri - Getty Images/Bryn Lennon
Valtteri Bottas of Finland driving the (77) Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team Mercedes W11 leads Lewis Hamilton of Great Britain driving the (44) Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team Mercedes W11 during the Formula One Grand Prix of Austria at Red Bull Ring on July 05, 2020 in Spielberg, Austri - Getty Images/Bryn Lennon

This was a fitting return for Formula One. The first race for over seven months had no fans but it did have tonnes of anticipation, intrigue, last-minute protests, grid penalties, crashes, smashes, daring moves and a heap of late drama and peril.

Valtteri Bottas began the season with an impressive pole-to-flag victory and opened an early advantage over Lewis Hamilton. If he is to deny his team-mate a seventh world championship in a shortened 2020 season, an early lead is crucial.

And Lando Norris’s brilliant and bold final laps brought him a deserved podium for McLaren. His crucial overtake of Sergio Perez and then nailing the fastest lap at the death was outstanding driving. Charles Leclerc, too, fought back from nowhere on Saturday to second on Sunday, a boon for a Ferrari who have slipped well back into the midfield.

In many ways this was an old-style F1 race of attrition, with only 11 cars finishing.  But it was also a result that comes with a massive serving of ‘what if?’ and a side serving of ‘oh well’.

The same old, same old?

Mercedes' Finnish driver Valtteri Bottas celebrates with champagne on the podium after the Austrian Formula One Grand Prix race on July 5, 2020 in Spielberg, Austria - MARK THOMPSON/POOL/AFP via Getty Images
Mercedes' Finnish driver Valtteri Bottas celebrates with champagne on the podium after the Austrian Formula One Grand Prix race on July 5, 2020 in Spielberg, Austria - MARK THOMPSON/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

On the face of it, Mercedes were in a class of their own. In qualifying no other team got within half a second. After six consecutive driver and constructor double championships, a hefty margin to the rest of the pack should probably cease to be a surprise.

As the chequered flag fell, Bottas led Hamilton home after a composed weekend all round. That, though, entirely conceals the chaos and jeopardy that the newly-liveried Black Arrows had for the final 30 laps. At several times, a perfect start was in real danger of being scuppered.

Austria has been a bogey track for Mercedes in recent years. A double DNF in 2018 was followed by temperature trouble last season, with their cars finishing only third and fifth. This year’s race almost threatened the same — some of those threats came from within and some from outside.

The first danger came from Verstappen’s Red Bull, winner of the last two races in Spielberg. Once Hamilton was given his 11th hour grid penalty, moving him down to fifth and the Red Bull up to second, the odds shifted towards the home team. On the more durable medium compound tyres, Verstappen held second at the start and would have been on a more favourable strategy, being able to run longer and then have the soft compound tyres in the closing stages.

In the opening 11 laps he kept Bottas honest — lapping an average of 0.142s slower from lap 2-10, despite having harder tyres. But his retirement on lap 11 means we still do not know whether he could have sustained a challenge to Mercedes – to win he would have had to pass one or both on-track – or whether the Red Bull is a match for them in race trim. It is a possibility but also a big maybe. How much were Mercedes holding back?

How Mercedes nearly lost a perfect position

Mercedes’ gearbox sensor issues were by far the biggest and most prolonged threat to their dominance on Sunday. Both drivers were ordered to stay away from the kerbs due to this problem that can be, according to Team Principal Toto Wolff, an “instant kill”.

As we saw on Sunday and have seen so many times in the past, this track can be a car breaker. Riding the kerbs is crucial in finding lap time. How much would the extra caution have cost Bottas and Hamilton? A few tenths, maybe. But the danger of another double failure became more and more critical from lap 41 – a time when Hamilton was harrying Bottas for the lead, after making his way swiftly up from fifth.

The first Safety Car left Alexander Albon’s Red Bull around 10 seconds away, but the two later Safety Car periods mean we do not know if he would have caught and passed Hamilton and Bottas, with their ailments. The lap times suggest not without a failure on one or both cars. Max Verstappen might have, though.

The final cautionary period, though, gave Albon a great chance of victory after he stopped for fresh soft tyres, as Mercedes stayed out.

Really, Albon should have won the race from that position. He passed Perez quickly on the initial restart and when racing resumed, he was soon up on the back of Hamilton. With 10 laps left, two wounded cars ahead and fresh rubber, it would have been a matter of laps before he could have used DRS and passed into the traditional overtaking zone into turn three.

Instead, he looked a little impatient in trying to pass Hamilton around the outside of the tricky turn four on the first lap after the restart. It is possible to overtake there but doing it as he did there is always the risk of this type of incident, as the downhill corner tightens towards a gravel trap on exit. It was by no means a huge error or miscalculation from Hamilton; at that stage he would have had far less grip than Albon, who he ended up under-steering into. He didn't even look to be fighting the place too hard.

The stewards thought it was Hamilton’s fault – and gave him a five-second penalty which cost him second — but that seemed harsh. Albon’s chances of winning ended with the spin, but his race was finished a few laps later with Red Bull’s second DNF of the day.

Are Mercedes without rival in 2020?

All those factors and threats made it a brilliant race. But they do not hint towards a close season at the very front.  You can look too deeply into Mercedes’ near miss and project forward too much. Even with their own troubles and a necessary avoiding of the bumpy bits, they seemed to have enough pace to hold off their rivals. That is extremely worrying for a competitive constructors’ championship.  Verstappen could be a regular thorn in their side, but after his and his team’s failure to score points, a title attempt from here looks a little optimistic.

A lot of the talk throughout the weekend was of Mercedes’ new Dual Axis Steering system. But even if Red Bull’s Friday protest had been successful, it is unlikely to have made much difference to the size of their advantage in qualifying. Mercedes will go into the next race at this track, this Sunday as heavy favourites. The issues that plagued them will be a concern, though. But in any case they cannot be looking over their shoulders with too much worry.

Mercedes look to be without rival. Red Bull scored zero points and, despite two chances for victory, they appear to be trailing in Mercedes' wake. Mercedes now have a 37-point advantage.

Their biggest rivals in the last three years, Ferrari, were the fifth quickest team on raw pace and look to have fallen back into a midfield fight with the likes of McLaren and Racing Point. That is a disaster. This could be the longest short season for the Scuderia.

The Austrian Grand Prix could have thrown up a different result. Still, after a first race in seven months, it is difficult to look past a straight Bottas vs Hamilton fight for the title. Whilst there are still a few uncertainties in an uncertain season, Mercedes should be relieved at this result but delighted with the overall picture.