'Why I was wrong': Allan Lichtman fails to predict correct outcome of election
He was wrong.
Or so the American people decided.
Allan Lichtman, the historian who predicted 9 of the 10 last elections, failed to accurately predict who voters would chose to become the 47th president of the United States.
In a stunning political comeback, ex-President Donald Trump defeated Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris to reclaim the White House Tuesday night.
"Right now after a very long night I am taking some time off to assess why I was wrong and what the future holds for America," Lichtman told USA TODAY Wednesday morning.
Lichtman, an American University professor, had predicted Harris would narrowly beat Trump.
Trump, who lost the 2020 election that thrust President Joe Biden into the seat, overcame political obstacles, including two impeachments, a criminal conviction, and two attempted assassinations.
At the end of a nearly six-hour podcast hosted by his son Samuel Lichtman Tuesday, the 77-year-old history professor said he was shocked at the election's outcome.
Election live updates: Latest reaction to Trump's win; will Harris concede?
'Tune in on Thursday for a discussion of what happened'
In a post on X later on Wednesday morning, Lichtman thanked "all the loyal members, subscribers, and viewers of our live show" and said he will speak on his incorrect prediction later this week.
"We will go on and are assessing last night’s results," he wrote. "Please tune in on Thursday at 9 PM Eastern for a discussion of what happened."
The show will air on Lichtman's YouTube page.
"My aim is to assess why the keys were wrong, and what we can learn from this era and what the election means for the future of our country going forward," he said in a separate video post on X later on Wednesday.
The Keys Missed pic.twitter.com/FzsVbKcXFf
— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) November 6, 2024
'At a certain point, the math just doesn't math anymore'
The famous prognosticator had said his '13 keys' system showed Harris would win.
Using his system, Lichtman has now correctly predicted 9 of 11 presidential elections since 1984. His only other blemish came in 2000 when Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.
Lichtman touted nationwide exit-poll results showed democracy rising as a major issue among voters, with the economy still at number one, followed by issues including abortion (14%) and immigration (11%).
I want to thank all the loyal members, subscribers, and viewers of our live show. We will go on and are assessing last night’s results. Please tune in on Thursday at 9 PM Eastern for a discussion of what happened and what the future holds for America. @allanlichtmanyoutube.
— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) November 6, 2024
I tuned in to Allan Lichtman's livestream and immediately heard him say, "I don't get it." pic.twitter.com/HlCL86f0CO
— Jose Pagliery (@Jose_Pagliery) November 6, 2024
"If she can pull off Pennsylvania she still has a good shot," Lichtman said just before the last hour of the show before Nevada results came in. "She's running out of votes."
Pennsylvania was later called for Trump.
"At a certain point the math just doesn't math anymore," his son said towards the end of the interview. "This show has just been nuts...I think we are both a little surprised."
Unlike Nate Silver, who will try to squirm out of why he didn’t see the election coming, I admit that I was wrong. I will assess the election and the keys on my live show this Thursday at 9 PM Eastern. @allanlichtmanyoutube.
— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) November 6, 2024
Lichtman: 'I think she lost'
During the last hour, as Lichtman and his son analyzed votes in swing state Pennsylvania, his son called the election.
"I think she lost," his son said during the last 10 minutes of the show.
"I do too," Lichtman immediately responded then placed both hands to his temples. "Something ridiculous would have to happen... I'm still looking for a Pennsylvania miracle but I don't think we're going to have it."
"I've gotten a lot of very nice emails," Lichtman told his son, "Saying no matter what happens they greatly respect my vote."
"The math doesn't work," Lichtman said. "The numbers don't lie."
"I can't believe it," his son said. "I'm kind of in shock right now."
His father responded, "It is hard to believe."
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Contributing: Jonathan Limehouse.
Natalie Neysa Alund is a senior reporter for USA TODAY. Reach her at nalund@usatoday.com and follow her on X @nataliealund.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Lichtman fails to predict correct outcome of presidential election