Win or lose, Trump has transformed the GOP and American politics

Donald Trump is near the start of a new presidency − or the beginning of a post-campaign career that could be filled with prosecutions, lawsuits, legal expenses, and political recriminations.

The next presidential administration will look dramatically different depending on whether Trump prevails or falls on Election Day, but some things are likely to hold true either way.

Trump’s imprint on American political life has been profound. Some of the discord, crudeness, controversy and political realignment he has ushered in could fade if he loses, but much of it could linger in some form, experts say.

Win or lose, Trumpism will have a massive impact on a Republican Party that is very much at a crossroads.

If Trump loses, "there will be a ton of hand ringing and finger-pointing that will start immediately," said pollster Frank Luntz, who has worked with Republican candidates for decades.

If he wins? An even Trumpier party.

Said Luntz: "Victory has a way of healing all wounds. If Trump wins, the party is truly his and the movement moves forward."

Many Republicans believe there is no going back to the Republican party of old, before Trump seized it and reshaped it in his image. The new MAGA GOP is more extreme, more working class and more populist than the old, business-oriented internationalist party.

“This Republican Party’s forever changed,” said Conservative Political Action Committee Chair Matt Schlapp.

Yet Trump’s influence goes well beyond the policy and populism.

It is defined by his combative personality, his lack of inhibitions, his willingness to ignore democratic norms to go places others won’t and blow past previous political boundaries in ways many find alarming − such as threatening to use the military against Americans who oppose him.

“Trump doesn’t care about the rules, he doesn’t believe they apply to him,” said Ty Cobb, who worked as an attorney in Trump’s White House and is now a critic.

Having said and done things other politicians wouldn’t, Trump could make it easier for others to follow.

Trump has survived scandal after scandal − including two impeachments, fomenting an insurrection, four criminal indictments, conviction on 34 felony counts and a civil verdict that found him liable for sexual abuse and defamation − normalizing for his party what previously could have been disqualifying.

He has threatened to use the government to go after his political enemies, leading to criticism that he is pushing democracy to the breaking point.

And in falsely claiming that the 2020 election was stolen and continuing his unfounded rhetoric about "cheating" in the 2024 contest, Trump has undermined confidence in the election system for millions of Americans. A January USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll found 67% of Trump supporters don't believe President Joe Biden was legitimately elected and 52% weren't confident the results of the 2024 election would be accurately counted and reported.

That confidence could be hard to restore, especially since Trump seems certain to continue this message if he loses. Lawsuits over a potential loss seem likely. Trump's campaign filed dozens of court cases challenging his 2020 loss, and nearly all failed.

Trump also has seized on darker rhetoric used by far-right figures, raising questions about whether such incendiary language could become more broadly accepted in the GOP.

The former president routinely savages his opponents and uses language associated with authoritarian regimes, casting his political opposition as “enemies from within” and “vermin.”

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Trump’s transgressive approach has proven popular on the right.

“What he’s exemplifying is the idea that it’s OK to smash somebody, twist their arm and having everybody cheer for that, that’s really attractive to a lot of people,” said Trump biographer Gwenda Blair.

Many of Trump’s more inflammatory comments have targeted undocumented immigrants, saying they are “poisoning the blood” of the country and those who commit murders have “bad genes.” He has routinely associated illegal immigration with widespread criminality, contrary to crime data.

Immigration has emerged as the defining issue for the GOP in the Trump era and will remain a focus. Trump has changed the conversation, promising to deport every immigrant in the country illegally − more than 11 million people.

Trump’s uncompromising approach and refusal to broker dissent within his party has driven away moderates, leading most of the party’s top leaders to adopt MAGA populism. Even the insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021, when a mob of Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to halt the certification of the 2020 vote, didn’t stop most in the party from embracing him again.

“I mean, if he can get away with January 6 and still dominate the conscience of what appears to be almost 50% of the electorate four years later, I don't have any illusions about the fact that his influence is going to linger,” Cobb said.

Even if Trump loses, some who have opposed him are preparing for an extended fight against the former president’s influence after Election Day.

“When Trump is gone, his stain will remain on the Republicans who bent the knee to his fascist dreams. That’s why we have to keep fighting, even after Tuesday,” the anti-Trump Lincoln Project wrote on X Monday, posting a video of former GOP Congressman Adam Kinzinger talking about other GOP figures picking up Trump’s “mantle” and the need to keep the opposition “steamrolling.”

Jockeying over who will lead the party after Trump has already been begun and the 2028 Republican presidential candidates will begin making their moves − right away if Trump loses, and later in the cycle if he wins.

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Attention is already being paid to Trump running mate JD Vance. Other Republicans are looking at candidates who came up short in 2024, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

Trump issues will remain popular with the rank-and-file, GOP members said.

Planning a post-Trump path ahead would take time. Some Republicans may want to do another of their periodic "autopsies" after a loss, and that will involve a lot of debate.

"It will probably be several months before the party seriously weighs moving on and starts looking for the next big thing," said Liz Mair, an anti-Trump Republican strategist.

And if there is a second Trump presidency? An even Trumpier party, Mair said: "If he wins, I expect we'll see even less resistance to even the craziest stuff he tries from within the GOP than we did in his first term."

Trump campaign adviser Corey Lewandowski said Trump has ushered in a “fundamental shift to where the Republican Party was 10 years ago,” moving it away from “country club Republicans” to “one that is now inclusive of blue-collar workers.”

Yet while Trump has reordered the party, Lewandowski noted he also is a singular figure. Lewandowski painted Trump as the “blue collar billionaire” who has cobbled together a heavily working-class coalition that others in the GOP couldn’t, and argued “no other Republican can pull that off with any type of authenticity.”

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“It is only because of him that this movement is so big,” Lewandowski said.

Trump has dominated the GOP so thoroughly that the party will face a vacuum if he loses. He doesn't have a clear successor in the waiting.

“Trump is unique, somebody doesn't just get to pick up Trump's mantle," said former GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

And while Trump likely will remain influential within his party no matter what happens on Election Day, he could be hobbled by legal problems, especially if he loses. He is facing four criminal prosecutions, including one case in New York were he is awaiting sentencing on 34 felony counts over hush money paid to an adult film actress to conceal an affair before the 2016 election.

Some of those cases could go away if Trump wins − he has promised to fire special counsel Jack Smith, who is prosecuting Trump on charges stemming from his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and alleged mishandling of classified documents.

If he loses, Trump will be more exposed to criminal penalties. “He’s gonna have to deal with law enforcement," said Trump biographer Tim O'Brien.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Win or lose, the GOP is Trump's party