Who will win the U.S. presidential election? This California professor says he knows

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WHO WILL WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? MATH MODEL MAKES PREDICTION

Want a spoiler for next Tuesday’s presidential election? It’ll be close.

OK, so you want a real spoiler?

A retired Cal State Fullerton professor’s math model is predicting that Donald Trump will win the presidency next week.

The model, from Professor Emeritus Chandrasekhar Putcha “uses engineering principles based on probability and statistics to analyze polling data from various well-known sources,” according to a Cal State Fullerton press release.

“If the polling is correct, the mathematical model should accurately predict the outcome of the presidential election,” Putcha said in a statement.

The model predicts that Trump will win 47.95% of the popular vote and 271 electoral college votes. It takes 270 to win.

Vice President Kamala Harris, by contrast, is predicted to receive 46.12% of the popular vote and 267 electoral votes.

A squeaker.

So how good is this model?

It correctly predicted three of the last four presidential election outcomes. It successfully predicted that Joe Biden would win in 2020, and also that Barack Obama would win in 2008 and 2012.

They can’t all be winners. The model also predicted that Hillary Clinton would take the 2016 election that Trump ultimately won.

Still, Putcha has confidence in his model. How much confidence?

“Putcha said his team calculates a 97.4% confidence level in the polls,” according to the release.

REPORT URGES STATE TO RESTRICT HIGH-POTENCY CANNABIS

California should take significant steps to restrict cannabis in the state, a new report urged Wednesday.

The report was prepared by an independent panel of scientists convened by the California Department of Public Health, and warns that high-potency cannabis poses a threat to public health, particularly for young people, pregnant people and people with mental health conditions.

“As cannabis legalization advances, our report underscores the urgent need for stronger regulatory protections and public education about the dangers of high-potency cannabis,” said study co-author Daniele Piomelli in a statement shared by the public health advocacy group Getting It Right From The Start.

In addition to tamping down on the THC content in California’s weed, the report advises banning marijuana-related billboard advertising, requiring cannabis retailers to offer lower potency options to customers, tax the THC content of the weed, regulate the packaging and marketing of cannabis products by requiring plain packaging, banning flavors that can be attractive to children, educating the public about the risks associated with high-potency cannabis and tracking health outcomes related to product potency.

“These new products bear little resemblance to the traditional plant; from high potency flower to concentrates for ‘dabbing’ and vaping they pose significantly greater risks of dependency and triggering psychosis,” Lynn Silver, a report co-author and director of Getting It Right From The Start, said in a statement.

“Given the growing toll of addiction and mental illness, there is no excuse for further delay in public policy.,” Silver said.

The report urges action from CDPH, the Department of Cannabis Control, the Legislature and any other agencies with the power to act.

You can read the report here.

REPUBLICANS URGE PAUSE ON REFINERY STORAGE MANDATE

Two Assembly Republicans urged Gov. Gavin Newsom in a letter Wednesday to put the brakes on the recently passed refinery storage mandate, as well as the California Air Resources Board’s proposed Low Carbon Fuel Standard update, warning that allowing them to stand will result in driving businesses out of the state.

The letter came as Phillips 66 announced plans to close its Wilmington refinery next year. Assembly Republican Leader James Gallagher, R-Yuba City, and Assemblyman Joe Patterson, R-Rocklin, noted in their letter to Newsom that the Wilmington refinery accounts for more than 8% of the state’s oil and gas refining capacity.

“The closure will directly eliminate roughly 900 jobs, with exponentially more job losses in light of the fact that each direct refinery position results in the creation of an additional 14.5 jobs in the rest of the economy,” the lawmakers said in the letter.

They added that the CEO of Valero also is considering closing one or both of its California refineries.

“The looming decrease from nine to eight oil refineries in the state will result in significant impacts on the energy market and the state’s economy. Fuel prices will rise, unemployment will increase, and California will be forced to import energy from states and countries that do not share our environmental goals, undermining the policies you promote,” they wrote.

Gallagher and Patterson called on Newsom to convene yet another special session, in December, to repeal the refinery mandate.

“While we support efforts to stabilize gas prices, California’s web of regulations and mandates, including ABX2-1,has created an environment where oil refineries cannot survive. That will inevitably result in higher energy prices for California consumers as gasoline is purchased from overseas to make up the difference,” they wrote.

They also urged Newsom to direct his CARB appointees to refrain from updating the LCFS “until the negative implications of the loss of multiple oil refineries in the state have been accurately reflected.”

Reached for comment, Newsom spokesperson Alex Stack told The Bee in a statement, “We’re protecting Californians from price hikes at the pump and cleaning our air. These Republicans are trying to take us backwards because it would be good for Big Oil and their profits. By helping protect against price spikes and cutting pollution, these policies will save Californians billions every year in lower fuel costs and better health outcomes.”

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Turn the page and put this junk behind us.”

- Republican former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who endorsed Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris over Republican former President Donald Trump. Read the story here.

Best of The Bee:

• Arnold Schwarzenegger hopes to turn the page on Trump with Kamala Harris endorsement, via William Melhado.

• Vice President Kamala Harris to hold rally in Reno as Election Day approaches, via Andrew Sheeler.

• UC Davis can officially become a Hispanic-serving university. What does that label mean? Via Mathew Miranda.

• Can Donald Trump do better in California than he did in the past? Via David Lightman.

• Private developer withdraws from plan to convert CA state building into affordable housing, via William Melhado.