Did the Liberals leak the Layton massage story and will it hurt the NDP?

Since Sun TV broke the story that NDP Leader Jack Layton was found in a massage parlour suspected of being a bawdy house in 1996, the media's attention has turned to who was behind the leak.

But will the report based on police documents have any effect on the outcome of the election?

National Post columnist Jonathan Kay has indicated on Twitter and in an interview with the Montreal Gazette a liberal insider approached him with the massage story in 2008.

Kay says he was shown a Liberal party lawyer's Access to Information request for the police documents, but he didn't run the story because he was unable to confirm the details. Kay stresses Michael Ignatieff was not Liberal party leader at the time and he remains "agnostic" about who leaked the information this time around.

Former Liberal political consultant and columnist Warren Kinsella says he was also made aware of the story two years ago, but he didn't move on it because he thought Canadians would assume whoever was behind the leak was in the pocket of Layton's political enemies. Kinsella indicated on his blog the story has been floating around political circles and in Toronto for years.

"If the story ever saw the light of day, I told this person, it would hurt the source more than it would hurt the target," Kinsella wrote on his blog. "Right now, there isn't a voter in Canada who doesn't think a political party was wrapped up in this somehow."

If the story was leaked by a rival political party intending to slow down the much-publicized NDP surge, the question is: Did it work?

National Post columnist Chris Selley writes the answer is a resounding "no." He points to the fact approximately 15 per cent of voters headed to advance polls before the story even broke.

That now-Toronto Mayor Rob Ford got more popular after his drunk driving conviction in Florida became public knowledge is, in Selley's opinion, further proof salacious stories can help rather than hinder the campaigns of 21st century politicians. The fact Layton's trust numbers actually rose after the story broke, according to Nanos polling, seems to support this hypothesis.

Other public figures have dismissed the Layton story as irrelevant frivolity. CBC radio host Jian Ghomeshi tweeted, "A last-min story about a massage visit in 1996 (!) to affect opinion? Really? What a shamefully cynical reading of the Cdn public."

CBC political panelist and Maclean's editor Andrew Coyne had a more humorous take on the story, tweeting, "I guess all i can say is I'd rather be caught naked in a massage parlour than fully clothed working for SunNews."

One pundit who didn't see the Layton story as frivolous was Sun TV's Ezra Levant. The always-controversial Levant posted a flurry of tweets on Friday and Saturday attacking Layton and the media focus, especially the CBC's, on who leaked the story rather than on what Layton did. "I charge him with low morals, untrustworthiness & exploiting immigrant women," Levant tweeted.

Despite the NDP's growing support in Quebec, Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe dismissed the story, which Layton has described as a smear. Neither Stephen Harper or Michael Ignatieff commented on the story.

York University political science professor Robert Drummond predicts the story is unlikely to have much of an effect on the election's outcome. In a conversation with the QMI news service he said, "I think people who planned on going out and voting for him are less affected by it than those who weren't planning to vote for him in the first place."

Picking up on Selley's train of thought, Drummond points to Bill Clinton's political scandals as evidence the massage parlour story is unlikely to sway Layton's supporters.

"It didn't hurt Clinton's image, particularly with those who supported him," he said. "I don't know how it would play. Canada is a little different, but it happened 15 years ago."

Let us know if the massage parlour affected your vote on Twitter or on Yahoo! Canada News' election live chat after the polls close in B.C. at 10 p.m. Eastern.

(Photo credit: AFP)