Canada Politics

Ottawa braces for major cabinet shuffle

·Politics Reporter

July 2, 2013 at 12:23 p.m.

In you thought the rumour mill was in overdrive for last weekend's NHL draft, you should see what's going on in Ottawa right now.

In our nation's capital, speculation is running rampant as MPs, analysts and Hill staffers anxiously await the imminent cabinet shuffle.

As shuffles go, this one could be a major one — last summer Prime Minister Harper hinted at such a shake-up.

"We’ll probably have a new session mid-term when we’ll make… you know, we’ll take a look at how everybody’s performing and make some major changes at that point," he told a Calgary radio host.

In the midst of slumping polling numbers, there's no reason for Harper to change his tact.

Here's what the rumour mill is churning:

Jim Flaherty and Peter MacKay:

The biggest question surrounding the shuffle is what will Harper do with Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and Defence Minister Peter MacKay.

Both senior ministers have continuously said that they'd like to remain in their current posts but there might be good reason to shift them to less prominent roles. Flaherty has battled a skin disease which has led to side effects such as facial swelling and difficulty sleeping while MacKay has under-performed in Defence.

Right-leaning political analyst Keith Beardsley weighed-in on Flaherty in his blog.

"My guess is that for the time being [Flaherty] will remain if only because a successor is so difficult to find," Beardsley wrote.

As for MacKay, some are speculating that he'll be moved to either Justice or Public Safety. Last week, Sun News reported that current Public Safety Minister Vic Toews will soon be retiring from politics to return to the private sector.

Rising up: Will James Moore, Jason Kenney and John Baird be 'rewarded' for their good work?

Not many would dispute the fact that Heritage Minister James Moore, Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird and Immigration Minister Jason Kenney have been the government's top performers and probably all deserve promotions.

Moore has been a loyal supporter of Stephen Harper, is articulate, and hard working. Rumour has it that he'll finally receive a major portfolio.

Foreign Affairs is considered one of the major if not the major file in government but even so, Baird might be shuffled-out. In his column, Beardsley suggests that Baird's skill-set could also be used in Aboriginal Affairs or Natural Resources.

Immigration Minister Jason Kenney is another one to watch. As explained by the Ottawa Citizen editorial board, however, Harper has only a few options for him.

"Other than foreign affairs, finance or defence, anything else would not be viewed as a promotion," they wrote.

A new house leader?

Replacing government House Leader Peter Van Loan would serve two purposes for the Harper government.

Firstly, it would mute some of the verbal confrontations in the House of Commons —Van Loan is a battler who sometimes is a spark for the uncivil tone in parliament.

Secondly, according to a source of The Hill Times, it would appease backbench MPs angry over the PMO's control over caucus.

"[There's a] sort of a demand that if you want to try to heal this rift between PMO and caucus, or PMO and the backbench, then a really good, a really positive gesture would be replacing the whip and the House leader," the source said according to the newspaper.

This cabinet shuffle is an important one for the Harper government as it sets the agenda for the next two years heading into the 2015 election campaign.

The big announcement could come as early as this week. Sources told the Globe and Mail that MPs have been told to postpone international trips that would have taken place in early July.

(Photo courtesy of the Canadian Press)

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