2024 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Comedy Series

We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.

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The State of the Race

Season 3 of “The Bear” receiving a more tepid response is not too much for FX to worry out because all they would have to do is organize an event where they screen “Fishes” and/or “Honeydew” to remind TV Academy members of which season of the hit dramedy they are voting for.

The second season of “The Bear” being released during nominations voting last year really moved the needle for the show in quite a few categories. For example, we probably would not see Ebon Moss-Bacharach winning Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series for the first season of the show if voters did not get the chance to watch his standout Season 2 episode “Forks.” Overall, the currently nominated second season is what justified “The Bear” Season 1 winning the Outstanding Comedy Series Emmy in the first place. It would be a big surprise to see it lose in September.

But stranger things have happened, like “Curb Your Enthusiasm” now being tied for most nominations ever in this category, yet only winning two Emmys total, in any category, through 24 years and 12 seasons. The Larry David-led series is arguably the definitive HBO comedy, so one has to believe there are voters out there ready to award its farewell season.

Same goes for “Reservation Dogs” to a lesser extent. It has been such a fight for the show to get nominated throughout its three season run, so now receiving this nomination at the last minute opens the door for the celebrated program to get a victory lap as FX’s most critically-acclaimed comedy. Meanwhile, “What We Do in the Shadows,” which actually has been nominated in this category before, can take the recognition this year as proof that the show can make a strong case for winning this category in 2025, its final eligible year. But for now, it’s hard to imagine voters awarding a season that falls in the middle of its run if it has not previously won before.

“Palm Royale” being the only freshman show to make the cut this season conveys just how consistently good the rest of the nominees in the category have been. Year after year there have been strong cases to be made for “Abbott Elementary,” “Hacks,” and even “Only Murders in the Building” winning Outstanding Comedy Series because the shows have won in multiple categories. However, it does ultimately feel like they may not get their flowers in the form of winning the category until the end of their runs.

Nominees are listed in order of their likelihood to win.

Power Rankings:

1. “The Bear” (FX)

2. “Hacks” (Max)

3. “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)

4. “Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)

5. “Reservation Dogs” (FX)

6. “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

7. “Palm Royale” (Apple TV+)

8. “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)

Will Win: “The Bear”
Could Win: “Hacks”
Should Win: “The Bear”

More Comedy Category Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.

Last Year’s Winner: “The Bear”
Still Eligible: Yes.
Hot Streak: There are already an assortment of shows that have won Outstanding Comedy Series at least two times in a row, so “The Bear” winning this year would just put it in the same company as some of the greats. “Curb Your Enthusiasm” receiving a nomination though would allow for the HBO series to tie for most nominations in the category.

Notable Ineligible Series: “Ted Lasso” (ended); “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (ended); “Barry” (ended); “Jury Duty” (Season 2 is not eligible); “Wednesday” (Season 2 is not eligible)

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