2025 Oscar Predictions in Every Category

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Oscars  |  Emmys  |  Grammys  |  Tonys

Overall Oscars Commentary (Updated Dec. 12, 2024): More to come.

Projected nomination leaders (films): “Wicked” (11); “Emilia Pérez” (10); “The Brutalist” and “Conclave” (8)

Projected nomination leaders (studios): Netflix (17); Universal Pictures (11); A24 (10)

See all Academy Award predictions

Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)

Best Picture

“Anora” (Neon)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Director

Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker
“Anora” (Neon)
Edward Berger
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Jon M. Chu
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Brady Corbet ***
“The Brutalist” (A24)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Actor

Adrien Brody ***
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Timothée Chalamet
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24) 
Jesse Eisenberg
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Ralph Fiennes
“Conclave” (Focus Features)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Actress

Cynthia Erivo ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Angelina Jolie
“Maria” (Netflix)
Mikey Madison
“Anora” (Neon)
Fernanda Torres
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov
“Anora” (Neon)
Kieran Culkin ***
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Edward Norton
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Guy Pearce
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Denzel Washington
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actress

Danielle Deadwyler
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Selena Gomez
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Ariana Grande ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Original Screenplay

“All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
Payap Kapadia
“Anora” (Neon) ***
Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Coralie Fargeat

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Adapted Screenplay

“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Animated Feature

“Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar) 
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Production Design

“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Cinematography

“The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Costume Design

“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Film Editing

“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“September 5” (Paramount Pictures)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Makeup and Hairstyling

“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Sasquatch Sunset” (Bleecker Street)
“The Substance” (Mubi) ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Sound

“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Visual Effects

“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios) 
“Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures) ***
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Original Score

“The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Original Song

“Forbidden Road” from “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
“Beautiful That Way” from “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)
“I Always Wanted a Brother” from “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Documentary Feature

“Black Box Diaries” (MTV Documentary Films)
“Dahomey” (Mubi)
“Daughters” (Netflix) ***
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” (Kino Lorber)
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

International Feature

“Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix) ***
“The Girl with the Needle” from Denmark (Mubi)
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Kneecap” from Ireland (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

More Information (All Categories)

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About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.

Awards Circuit Columns and Podcast Archives (2024-2025)

Awards Circuit Film Columns, Features, and News Exclusives

• Studios Want Oscar Recognition for ‘Inside Out 2’ and ‘The Wild Robot’ Beyond Animated Feature. Will Voters Embrace Them?

• ‘Conclave’ Prays for Oscar Attention: How Do Religious Movies Perform With Academy Voters?

• ‘Anora’ and ‘Challengers’ Get Awards Boosts From Gotham Nominations in Year Without Oscar Frontrunners

• Has Netflix’s Long Journey to Win Best Picture Finally Arrived With ‘Emilia Pérez?’

• Art of the Oscar Sequel: Will the Academy Embrace Multiple Second Installments?

Awards Circuit Podcast (Film Season)

• Denis Villeneuve on ‘Dune 3,’ Amy Adams’ Oscar Snub for ‘Arrival’ and the Secret Rom-Com He Wrote

• Ryan Reynolds Says Hosting the Oscars ‘Would Be a Dream,’ Talks Academy’s ‘Greatest’ Snub and ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ Success

• ‘Thelma’ Star June Squibb on Potentially Being the Oldest Oscar Nominee, Threatening Ryan Reynolds and Admiring Adam Sandler

• Isabella Rossellini on ‘Conclave’ and How She Almost Didn’t Get ‘Death Becomes Her’ Role Because the Studio ‘Wanted Someone More Famous, More Established’

• John Magaro on How Being an Extra in Steven Spielberg’s ‘Munich’ Helped Him Prepare for ‘September 5’: ‘It’s About the Responsibility of Journalists’

• Saoirse Ronan On Feeling Responsible for Protecting Young Actors in Hollywood and Her Election Fears: ‘Please Don’t Be on the Fence’

Best of Variety

• Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature — 'The Wild Robot' and 'Inside Out 2' Continue to Push Beyond Category, While 'Flow' is Critical Darling

• Oscar Predictions: Adapted Screenplay - ‘Emilia Pérez’ Is Third Musical to Snag Globe Nom for Screenplay, While 'Nickel Boys' Continues to Ascend

• Oscar Predictions: Original Screenplay - Could 'A Real Pain' be a Real Contender for Writer Jesse Eisenberg?

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