2025 Oscars Predictions in Every Category

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Overall Oscars Commentary (Updated Jan. 21, 2025): Against the backdrop of devastating wildfires that ravaged southern California, the 97th Academy Awards are poised to announce their nominations. The fires, which have brought destruction and grief to Los Angeles and its surrounding areas, hit close to home for the entertainment industry, with roughly 60% of the Academy’s 10,000 eligible voting members residing in the City of Angels.

To accommodate those impacted, the Academy extended its voting deadline by five days, sparking speculation on how this extension might influence the final nominations. Did this extra window allow underdog films to gain last-minute momentum, or did the chaos of the fires dampen turnout among voters directly affected by the tragedy?

Despite these uncertainties, this year’s Oscar race is as competitive and unpredictable as ever. At the forefront of the conversation is Jacques Audiard’s genre-blending crime musical “Emilia Pérez,” projected to garner to be one of the leaders, ranging from 10-14 nominations. This potentially would set the record as the most-nominated non-English film in Oscar history (surpassing the 2000’s “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” and 2018’s “Roma”).

At the heart of “Emilia Pérez” is Karla Sofía Gascón’s incredible performance, which could make history as the first openly transgender acting nominee. However, with such a competitive lead actress race and critical darlings like Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”) and Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”) surging in the final days of voting, this could be a year where a presumed “lock” is absent on nomination morning. Or something completely unexpected, a category switch with Zoe Saldaña’s performance cited in the lead, alongside her co-star, which would be the first co-leading duo recognized since Geena Davis and Susan Sarandon for “Thelma & Louise” (1991). Or perhaps Gascón’s work would mimic the year when “Judas and the Black Messiah” (2021) saw both Lakeith Stanfield and Daniel Kaluuya nominated in supporting, despite the former campaigning in the lead.

Projected nominee leaders (films): “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez” and “Wicked” (10); “The Brutalist” (8) and “A Complete Unknown” (7); “Anora” and “Dune: Part Two” (6); “Nosferatu,” “Sing Sing” and “The Substance” (4); “Gladiator II” and “A Real Pain” (3)

Projected nominee leaders (studios): Netflix (15); Focus Features (14); A24 (13); Searchlight Pictures and Universal Pictures (10); Warner Bros. (7); Neon (6); Janus Films and Sony Pictures Classics (5); Mubi and Paramount Pictures (4)

See all Academy Award predictions

Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)

Best Picture

“Anora” (Neon)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Sing Sing” (A24)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Director

Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker
“Anora” (Neon)
Edward Berger ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Brady Corbet
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Payal Kapadia
“All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Actor

Adrien Brody
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Timothée Chalamet ***
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Daniel Craig
“Queer” (A24)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24) 
Ralph Fiennes
“Conclave” (Focus Features)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Actress

Cynthia Erivo
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste
“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
Mikey Madison
“Anora” (Neon)
Demi Moore ***
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Fernanda Torres
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov
“Anora” (Neon)
Kieran Culkin ***
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Clarence Maclin
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Edward Norton
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Guy Pearce
“The Brutalist” (A24)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actress

Monica Barbaro
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jamie Lee Curtis
“The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)
Ariana Grande
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Original Screenplay

“All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
Payal Kapadia
“Anora” (Neon) ***
Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Coralie Fargeat

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Adapted Screenplay

“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jay Cocks, James Mangold
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Animated Feature

“Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar) 
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Production Design

“The Brutalist” (A24)
Judy Becker
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Suzie Davies, Roberta Federico
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Zsuzsanna Sipos, Shane Vieau, Patrice Vermette
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
Craig Lathrop
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***
Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Cinematography

“The Brutalist” (A24) ***
Lol Crawley
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Stéphane Fontaine
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Paul Guilhaume
“Maria” (Netflix)
Edward Lachman
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
Jarin Blaschke

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Costume Design

“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Arianne Phillips
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Lisy Christl
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Janty Yates
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
Linda Muir
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***
Paul Tazewell

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Film Editing

“Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Nick Emerson
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Joe Walker
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Juliette Welfling
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Myron Kerstein

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Makeup and Hairstyling

“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Love Larson, Eva Von Bahr
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Julia Floch Carbonel, Simon Livet
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
Traci Loader, Suzanne Stokes-Munton, David White
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Pierre-Olivier Persin
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***
Frances Hannon, Sarah Nuth, Laura Blount

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Sound

“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Visual Effects

“Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Original Score

“The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Original Song

“Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
“Sick in the Head” from “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
“Kiss the Sky” from “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Documentary Feature

“Daughters” (Netflix)
“No Other Land” (No U.S. Distribution) ***
“Porcelain War” (Picturehouse)
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” (Kino Lorber)
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

International Feature

“Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix) ***
“Flow” from Larvia (Janus Films/Sideshow)
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Kneecap” from Ireland (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Vermiglio” from Italy (Janus Films)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Animated Short

“A Bear Named Wojtek” (Illuminated Film Company)
“In the Shadow of Cypress” (Voce Spettacolo)
“Maybe Elephants” (National Film Board of Canada) ***
“Wander to Wonder” (Bantam Film)
“Yuck!” (Miyu Distribution)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Documentary Short

“Death by Numbers” (Cuomo Cole Productions)
“I Am Ready, Warden” (MTV Documentary Films) ***
“Incident” (Hypnotic Pictures)
“Once Upon a Time in Ukraine” (Earle Mack Productions)
“A Swim Lesson” (Le Train Train)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Live Action Short

“Anuja” (Netflix)
“Dovecote” (LEAF Entertainment) ***
“The Last Ranger” (Six Feet Films)
“A Lien” (No U.S. Distribution)
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” (Antitalent Produkcija)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

More Information (All Categories)

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About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.

Awards Circuit Columns and Podcast Archives (2024-2025)

Awards Circuit Film Columns, Features, and News Exclusives

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• 6 Acting Performances Oscars Should Consider, From Jamie Lee Curtis and Josh O’Connor

• Oscar Nomination Voting Officially Opens in Year Without a Clear Frontrunner

• ‘Anora,’ ‘Nosferatu,’ ‘Nickel Boys’ and More Could Use DGA, PGA and WGA Noms for Big Boosts in Oscar Race

• Six Ways the 2025 Golden Globes Reshaped the Oscar and Emmys Races: From Demi Moore’s Big Night to Netflix’s Triumph

• How Demi Moore’s Awards Run for ‘The Substance’ Could Redefine Horror at the Oscars

• Golden Globes Make Demi Moore an Oscar Frontrunner, Boost ‘Emilia Pérez’ and ‘The Brutalist’ in Best Picture Race

• If I Had an Oscar Ballot 2025: A Year of Triumphs Amid Trying Times

• Does Irish Hit ‘Kneecap’ Have the Legs to Make It to the Oscars?

• An Unpredictable Oscars Season Is Currently Underway Where Anything Can (and Will) Happen

• 15 Golden Globes Takeaways: ‘Emilia Perez’ Proves It’s a Major Awards Player, ‘The Substance’ Flexes and ‘Wicked’ Flies (But Not Too High)

• Final Golden Globes Predictions: ‘Conclave,’ ‘Emilia Pérez’ and ‘Wicked’ Expected to Lead Nominations

• 5 Reasons Why ‘Wicked’ Could Fly to Best Picture Victory

• The Oscar Trump Effect: How the Academy Could Reflect Our Turbulent Times

• How Isabella Rossellini Could Land in the Oscar History Books for ‘Conclave’ 

• Studios Want Oscar Recognition for ‘Inside Out 2’ and ‘The Wild Robot’ Beyond Animated Feature. Will Voters Embrace Them?

• ‘Conclave’ Prays for Oscar Attention: How Do Religious Movies Perform With Academy Voters?

• ‘Anora’ and ‘Challengers’ Get Awards Boosts From Gotham Nominations in Year Without Oscar Frontrunners

• Has Netflix’s Long Journey to Win Best Picture Finally Arrived With ‘Emilia Pérez?’

• Art of the Oscar Sequel: Will the Academy Embrace Multiple Second Installments?

Awards Circuit Podcast (Film Season)

• Sebastian Stan on Why Playing Donald Trump Was the ‘Hardest Thing’ He’s Ever Done and How ‘Thunderbolts*’ Is Like Marvel’s ‘The Breakfast Club’

• Ariana Grande on Glinda’s New ‘Wicked 2’ Song and ‘Mulling Over’ the ‘Eternal Sunshine’ Deluxe Release: ‘I Want to Let My Children Miss Me for Two Seconds’

• ‘Nickel Boys’ Director RaMell Ross on Making the Film and Being Open to Working With Marvel Producers ‘Willing to Challenge Their Beliefs’

• Monica Barbaro on Portraying Joan Baez in ‘A Complete Unknown,’ Having a Mixed Identity in Hollywood and Being Mentored by Tom Cruise

• Cynthia Erivo Reveals She Co-Wrote an Original Song for Elphaba in ‘Wicked: For Good’: ‘When We Filmed It, the Entire Crew Was in Tears’

• Steve McQueen on Casting Saoirse Ronan in ‘Blitz’ and Why Cinema ‘Is the Best Medium in the World’

• Denzel Washington on ‘Gladiator 2’ and Calling Ryan Coogler to Apologize for Spilling ‘Black Panther 3’ News

• Ray Fisher on Going From Bartender During ‘Fences’ Broadway Theatre Run to Starring in ‘The Piano Lesson’: ‘It’s a Full Circle Moment’

• Guy Pearce on ‘The Brutalist’ Shocker, Watching Christopher Nolan Win the Oscar and the ‘L.A. Confidential’ Sequel That Almost Happened

• Jennifer Lopez on ‘Unstoppable’ and Fighting Latina Stereotypes Early in Her Career: ‘Why Can’t I Be the Girl Next Door?’

• Pharrell Williams on Seeing His ‘Flaws’ in the Lego Music Doc ‘Piece by Piece’ and Encountering PETA Protestors at Screenings: ‘Let Them Speak’

• ‘Sing Sing’ Breakout Clarence Maclin on Oscar Buzz, If He’s Playing Himself, and Why Prison Theater Programs ‘Weren’t Just Art, They Were Survival’

• Pamela Anderson on Beyonce’s ‘Beywatch’ Homage and Watching Jamie Lee Curtis Turn Orange for ‘The Last Showgirl’

• ‘The Piano Lesson’ Star Danielle Deadwyler on How August Wilson’s Plays Are ‘Love Letters to Black America’ and Being ‘Open’ to Superhero Movies

• Denis Villeneuve on ‘Dune 3,’ Amy Adams’ Oscar Snub for ‘Arrival’ and the Secret Rom-Com He Wrote

• Ryan Reynolds Says Hosting the Oscars ‘Would Be a Dream,’ Talks Academy’s ‘Greatest’ Snub and ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ Success

• ‘Thelma’ Star June Squibb on Potentially Being the Oldest Oscar Nominee, Threatening Ryan Reynolds and Admiring Adam Sandler

• Isabella Rossellini on ‘Conclave’ and How She Almost Didn’t Get ‘Death Becomes Her’ Role Because the Studio ‘Wanted Someone More Famous, More Established’

• John Magaro on How Being an Extra in Steven Spielberg’s ‘Munich’ Helped Him Prepare for ‘September 5’: ‘It’s About the Responsibility of Journalists’

• Saoirse Ronan On Feeling Responsible for Protecting Young Actors in Hollywood and Her Election Fears: ‘Please Don’t Be on the Fence’

Best of Variety

• Final Oscar Predictions: Best Actor — Is It Daniel Craig or Sebastian Stan for the Fifth Spot?

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