2025 Oscars Predictions in Every Category

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Overall Oscars commentary (Updated Feb. 6, 2025): Do you realize it’s been 31 days since the Golden Globes? Feels like a lifetime ago. Since then, the awards race has been a whirlwind of unexpected twists, industry debates, and, of course, controversy.

This weekend, three major guilds — the Critics Choice Awards (whose final voting closed Jan. 10, before the whole “Emilia Pérez” drama), the Producers Guild of America (whose voting wrapped two days after the controversy erupted), and the Directors Guild of America (still voting until Friday) — will finally weigh in on one of the most unpredictable Oscar seasons in recent memory.

Right now, six films are jostling for best picture dominance: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez” and “Wicked.” And even with all the chatter around one particular film (have we mentioned there’s been controversy?), this year’s race is still fluid. Anything could happen.

With final Oscar voting set to open on Tuesday, Feb. 11, these upcoming awards could provide crucial momentum.

We could see some surprising boosts at the Critics Choice Awards, where there’s no preferential ballot instituted. Sean Baker’s “Anora” has strong support, particularly in best actress for Mikey Madison and original screenplay. But don’t count out “The Substance” — it’s incredibly popular with critics, and Demi Moore’s emotional Golden Globes speech likely left a mark on voters who submitted ballots post-ceremony. There’s also a real possibility that its body-horror screenplay sneaks in for a win. Would that translate to Oscar success? It’s hard to say, but Critics Choice favors bold, original storytelling.

Then there’s Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist,” which could sweep the weekend. If it wins Critics Choice, PGA, and DGA, we can all retire the “wide open race” narrative — especially since preferential balloting at PGA, would favor A24’s historical epic. But come on, when has awards season ever been that simple?

At DGA, Corbet is favored, but don’t overlook veteran filmmaker James Mangold. He’s well-liked in Hollywood, and his Bob Dylan biopic, “A Complete Unknown,” has been surging in recent weeks. Over at PGA, that same film could pull off a win — unless Edward Berger’s “Conclave” snub has inspired members to rally behind it or Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked’s” sheer blockbuster success catapulting it to the top.

The final picks for the winners are below.

DGA Predictions

Film Director: Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist” (alt. James Mangold)
First-Time Directing: RaMell Ross, “Nickel Boys” (alt. Payal Kapadia)
Documentary: Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev, “Porcelain War” (alt. Johan Grimonprez)
TV Drama: Issa López, “True Detective: Night Country” — “Part 6” (alt. Jonathan Van Tulleken)
TV Comedy: Lucia Aniello, “The Bear” — “Bulletproof” (alt. Christopher Storer)
TV Limited/Movie: Steven Zaillian, “Ripley” (alt. Alfonso Cuarón)
Variety Series: Liz Patrick, “Saturday Night Live” (alt. Paul Pennolino)
Variety Specials: Hamish Hamilton, “The 96th Academy Awards” (alt. Beth McCarthy-Miller)
Reality: Mike Sweeney, “Conan O’Brien Must Go” (alt. Ari Katcher)
Childrens: Michael Goi, “Avatar: The Last Airbender” (alt. Amber Sealey)
Commercials: Kim Gehrig (alt. Lance Acord)

PGA Predictions

Best Picture: “A Complete Unknown” (alt. “Conclave”)
Animated Feature: “The Wild Robot” (alt. “Inside Out 2”)
Documentary Feature: “Porcelain War” (alt. “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story”)
TV Drama: “Shōgun” (alt. “The Diplomat”)
TV Comedy: “Hacks” (alt. “The Bear”)
TV Limited: “The Penguin” (alt. “Baby Reindeer”)
TV Movie: “The Greatest Night in Pop” (alt. “Carry-On”)
TV Variety: “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (alt. “Saturday Night Live”)
Reality Series: “The Traitors” (alt. “Top Chef”)
Non-Fiction Series: “Welcome to Wrexham” (alt. “Conan O’Brien Must Go”)

See all Academy Award predictions

Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)

Best Picture

“Anora” (Neon)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Director

Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker
“Anora” (Neon)
Brady Corbet ***
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Coralie Fargeat
“The Substance” (Mubi)
James Mangold
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Actor

Adrien Brody
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Timothée Chalamet ***
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24) 
Ralph Fiennes
“Conclave” (Focus Features) 
Sebastian Stan
“The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Actress

Cynthia Erivo
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Mikey Madison
“Anora” (Neon)
Demi Moore ***
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Fernanda Torres
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov
“Anora” (Neon)
Kieran Culkin
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Edward Norton ***
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Guy Pearce
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Jeremy Strong
“The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Supporting Actress

Monica Barbaro
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Ariana Grande
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Felicity Jones
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Original Screenplay

“Anora” (Neon) ***
Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg
“September 5” (Paramount Pictures)
Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Coralie Fargeat

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Adapted Screenplay

“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jay Cocks, James Mangold
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)
RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Animated Feature

“Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar) 
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Production Design

“The Brutalist” (A24)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Cinematography

“The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Costume Design

“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Film Editing

“Anora” (Neon)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Makeup and Hairstyling

“A Different Man” (A24)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) ***

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Sound

“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) ***
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Visual Effects

“Alien: Romulus” (20th Century Studios)
“Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Original Score

“The Brutalist” (A24) ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Original Song

“Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix) ***
“Like a Bird” from “Sing Sing” (A24)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Documentary Feature

“Black Box Diaries” (MTV Documentary Films)
“No Other Land” (No U.S. Distribution) ***
“Porcelain War” (Picturehouse)
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” (Kino Lorber)
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

International Feature

“Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix)
“Flow” from Latvia (Janus Films/Sideshow)
“The Girl with the Needle” from Denmark (Mubi)
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics) ***
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Animated Short

“Beautiful Men” (Miyu Distribution)
“In the Shadow of Cypress” (Voce Spettacolo)
“Magic Candies” (Toei Animation)
“Wander to Wonder” (Bantam Film) ***
“Yuck!” (Miyu Distribution)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Documentary Short

“Death by Numbers” (Cuomo Cole Productions)
“I Am Ready, Warden” (MTV Documentary Films) ***
“Incident” (Hypnotic Pictures)
“Instruments of a Beating Heart” (The New York Times OpDocs/Cineric Creative)
“The Only Girl in the Orchestra” (Netflix)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

Live Action Short

“Anuja” (Netflix) ***
“I’m Not a Robot” (The New Yorker)
“The Last Ranger” (Six Feet Films)
“A Lien” (No U.S. Distribution)
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” (Manifest)

Oscar category page with rankings>>>

More Information (All Categories)

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About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.

Awards Circuit Columns and Podcast Archives (2024-2025)

Awards Circuit Film Columns, Features, and News Exclusives

• BAFTA Nominations Predictions: ‘Conclave’ and ‘Emilia Pérez’ Expected to Lead; ‘Challengers’ and Mark Edelshteyn Could Surprise

• 6 Acting Performances Oscars Should Consider, From Jamie Lee Curtis and Josh O’Connor

• Oscar Nomination Voting Officially Opens in Year Without a Clear Frontrunner

• ‘Anora,’ ‘Nosferatu,’ ‘Nickel Boys’ and More Could Use DGA, PGA and WGA Noms for Big Boosts in Oscar Race

• Six Ways the 2025 Golden Globes Reshaped the Oscar and Emmys Races: From Demi Moore’s Big Night to Netflix’s Triumph

• How Demi Moore’s Awards Run for ‘The Substance’ Could Redefine Horror at the Oscars

• Golden Globes Make Demi Moore an Oscar Frontrunner, Boost ‘Emilia Pérez’ and ‘The Brutalist’ in Best Picture Race

• If I Had an Oscar Ballot 2025: A Year of Triumphs Amid Trying Times

• Does Irish Hit ‘Kneecap’ Have the Legs to Make It to the Oscars?

• An Unpredictable Oscars Season Is Currently Underway Where Anything Can (and Will) Happen

• 15 Golden Globes Takeaways: ‘Emilia Perez’ Proves It’s a Major Awards Player, ‘The Substance’ Flexes and ‘Wicked’ Flies (But Not Too High)

• Final Golden Globes Predictions: ‘Conclave,’ ‘Emilia Pérez’ and ‘Wicked’ Expected to Lead Nominations

• 5 Reasons Why ‘Wicked’ Could Fly to Best Picture Victory

• The Oscar Trump Effect: How the Academy Could Reflect Our Turbulent Times

• How Isabella Rossellini Could Land in the Oscar History Books for ‘Conclave’ 

• Studios Want Oscar Recognition for ‘Inside Out 2’ and ‘The Wild Robot’ Beyond Animated Feature. Will Voters Embrace Them?

• ‘Conclave’ Prays for Oscar Attention: How Do Religious Movies Perform With Academy Voters?

• ‘Anora’ and ‘Challengers’ Get Awards Boosts From Gotham Nominations in Year Without Oscar Frontrunners

• Has Netflix’s Long Journey to Win Best Picture Finally Arrived With ‘Emilia Pérez?’

• Art of the Oscar Sequel: Will the Academy Embrace Multiple Second Installments?

Awards Circuit Podcast (Film Season)

• Sebastian Stan on Why Playing Donald Trump Was the ‘Hardest Thing’ He’s Ever Done and How ‘Thunderbolts*’ Is Like Marvel’s ‘The Breakfast Club’

• Ariana Grande on Glinda’s New ‘Wicked 2’ Song and ‘Mulling Over’ the ‘Eternal Sunshine’ Deluxe Release: ‘I Want to Let My Children Miss Me for Two Seconds’

• ‘Nickel Boys’ Director RaMell Ross on Making the Film and Being Open to Working With Marvel Producers ‘Willing to Challenge Their Beliefs’

• Monica Barbaro on Portraying Joan Baez in ‘A Complete Unknown,’ Having a Mixed Identity in Hollywood and Being Mentored by Tom Cruise

• Cynthia Erivo Reveals She Co-Wrote an Original Song for Elphaba in ‘Wicked: For Good’: ‘When We Filmed It, the Entire Crew Was in Tears’

• Steve McQueen on Casting Saoirse Ronan in ‘Blitz’ and Why Cinema ‘Is the Best Medium in the World’

• Denzel Washington on ‘Gladiator 2’ and Calling Ryan Coogler to Apologize for Spilling ‘Black Panther 3’ News

• Ray Fisher on Going From Bartender During ‘Fences’ Broadway Theatre Run to Starring in ‘The Piano Lesson’: ‘It’s a Full Circle Moment’

• Guy Pearce on ‘The Brutalist’ Shocker, Watching Christopher Nolan Win the Oscar and the ‘L.A. Confidential’ Sequel That Almost Happened

• Jennifer Lopez on ‘Unstoppable’ and Fighting Latina Stereotypes Early in Her Career: ‘Why Can’t I Be the Girl Next Door?’

• Pharrell Williams on Seeing His ‘Flaws’ in the Lego Music Doc ‘Piece by Piece’ and Encountering PETA Protestors at Screenings: ‘Let Them Speak’

• ‘Sing Sing’ Breakout Clarence Maclin on Oscar Buzz, If He’s Playing Himself, and Why Prison Theater Programs ‘Weren’t Just Art, They Were Survival’

• Pamela Anderson on Beyonce’s ‘Beywatch’ Homage and Watching Jamie Lee Curtis Turn Orange for ‘The Last Showgirl’

• ‘The Piano Lesson’ Star Danielle Deadwyler on How August Wilson’s Plays Are ‘Love Letters to Black America’ and Being ‘Open’ to Superhero Movies

• Denis Villeneuve on ‘Dune 3,’ Amy Adams’ Oscar Snub for ‘Arrival’ and the Secret Rom-Com He Wrote

• Ryan Reynolds Says Hosting the Oscars ‘Would Be a Dream,’ Talks Academy’s ‘Greatest’ Snub and ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ Success

• ‘Thelma’ Star June Squibb on Potentially Being the Oldest Oscar Nominee, Threatening Ryan Reynolds and Admiring Adam Sandler

• Isabella Rossellini on ‘Conclave’ and How She Almost Didn’t Get ‘Death Becomes Her’ Role Because the Studio ‘Wanted Someone More Famous, More Established’

• John Magaro on How Being an Extra in Steven Spielberg’s ‘Munich’ Helped Him Prepare for ‘September 5’: ‘It’s About the Responsibility of Journalists’

• Saoirse Ronan On Feeling Responsible for Protecting Young Actors in Hollywood and Her Election Fears: ‘Please Don’t Be on the Fence’

Best of Variety

• Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress — Will Zoe Saldaña be ‘Emilia Perez’s’ Redemption or Is Ariana Grande Too 'Popular' to Lose?

• Oscar Predictions: Best Actress — Demi Moore Is Out Front, but Fernanda Torres Could be a Spoiler

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