Are Canadians satisfied with the election outcome? Experts weigh in

Justin Trudeau’s Liberals won the most seats last night, grabbing 157 out of 338, allowing them to form a minority government. But winning a plurality of seats doesn’t mean the party has the backing of most of the country.

In terms of popular vote, the Conservatives had 34.4 per cent of the vote share, and the Liberals trailed them with 33.1 per cent of the vote, a low for any government in Canada’s history. A total of 6,150,177 people voted for the CPC, which is 238,589 more votes than the Liberals had (they ended the night with 5,911,588 votes). The Conservative Party finished with 121 seats in total.

So are Canadians happy with the election outcome? A Yahoo Canada poll found 71 per cent of readers aren’t satisfied with the results.

With no party holding the support of most Canadians, and the winning party not leading the popular vote, Canadians being dissatisfied doesn’t come as a surprise.

Canada’s electoral system is first-past-the-post, with races occurring within the 338 ridings across the country. Popular vote doesn’t always reflect seat count, and that’s a reality of the system.

If we did choose our leaders based on share of the popular vote, the legislature would look different following the 2019 election. In 2015, Justin Trudeau ran on a campaign promise to shift our system to proportional representation. That idea was axed after Trudeau said most Canadians don’t want such a drastic change and aren’t overwhelmingly in favour of it.

What would the election outcome have been if we had a proportional voting system?

According to a Radio-Canada graphic, using a proportional voting system for the 2019 election would have resulted in 112 seats for the Liberals (losing 45 seats), 117 seats for the Conservatives (losing 4 seats), 54 seats for the NDP (gaining 30 seats), and 26 seats for the Bloc (losing six seats).

A proportional system would have resulted in seats being more evenly spread out between the parties, with the Conservatives narrowly winning the most seats in the election. That model would have also led to the Green Party winning 22 seats (compared to the three they earned last night), and the PPC would have six seats rather than being decimated.

Radio-Canada notes that introducing a different voting system has been attempted in provinces like B.C., Ontario and P.E.I. with no success.

Do Canadians want to change the electoral system?

According to a 2015 survey by research firm Abacus Data found that most Canadians generally believe the system for electing members to Parliament needs to be changed. Forty-two per cent thought it needed major changes or to be changed completely. Another 41 per cent thought the system needs minor changes while about one in five were satisfied with the status quo.

While parties like the Greens and the NDP would have benefited the most from a proportional system, the Liberals and Conservatives too often benefit from first-past-the-post and aren’t too keen to bring up reform again, says Duff Conacher, co-founder of advocacy group Democracy Watch.

“It’s possible that Trudeau would want to be a transformative leader, but he's rejected [proportional representation] already,” says Conacher. Trudeau’s rejection of a new system also resonates with many Canadians who may fear fringe parties entering parliament, like the PPC, says Conacher.

While young voters sharply criticized Trudeau for abandoning his promise to change the system, older voters who are more reliable to turn up at the polls are less inclined to support big change, he says.

While Jagmeet Singh spoke the day after the election, calling the current electoral system broken, it may not be on the minds of Canadians as Trudeau’s minority government start to negotiate with other parties.

Is Canada more “fractured” after this election?

Coverage following the election has been focused on portraying a divided, uncertain Canada. The New York Times called Trudeau’s victory “anemic” and an indication that Canadians are deeply unsatisfied with him, even though he’s getting another chance to govern.

“It’s like a Goldilocks election. Not too big, not too small,” says Jonathan Rose, an associate professor in the political science department at Queen’s University. Although the Liberals weren’t too heavily defeated, it’s clear that Canadians wanted to send him a message that they aren’t happy, says Rose.

A minority government may appeared more fractured, with multiple parties in the fray. But for those who didn’t vote for Trudeau, they should know the legislature will be “reinvigorated” following the seat changes, says Rose.

“[Parties] will have significantly more power to hold the government to account,” he says. “Trudeau will have significantly less power.”

“If you're a Conservative, you should be happy with this result. It allows your party to go in the next election with a clear articulation,” he says.

A Vice piece called Canada “truly divided now” after the election and highlighted the stark differences in viewpoints across the country. While the Liberals held strong in Laurentian and Atlantic Canada, they had a dismal showing in Alberta and Saskatchewan, gaining no seats at all (and losing cabinet minister Ralph Goodale).

The Bloc’s surge in Quebec and aversion to voting NDP added to many bitterly contested races across the country.

But do these differences in voting preference across the country come as a surprise? Some Albertans are calling for a “Wexit”, indicating their discontent at another Liberal government.

“It's clear that Western Canada is as blue as the sea, it will be a challenge for governing but it's not unique,” says Rose.

A “Wexit” doesn’t necessarily make sense when B.C. has consistently shown support for non-Conservative parties, he says.

Conacher agrees that it’s more of an “Axit”, but promising to retain jobs to an older, white part of the Canadian population unsurprisingly leads to Conservative support.

The turn to the Bloc and away from the NDP may have to do with Quebecers looking for a party that supports their concerns for the environment and social services, and racism towards Jagmeet Singh plays a role, says Conacher.

But the possibilities for more agreement or compromises within a minority government may be a positive aspect of a divided Commons.

Do you think our electoral system should be reformed? And are you hopeful or worried about the upcoming minority government? Let us know in the comments.