Harper Conservatives should get a boost from the latest Moody's report

'It's the economy, stupid.'

During U.S. election campaigns we hear that phrase a lot.

It’s a message that means elections are about the economy: more than anything, voters are interested in job security and their ability to provide for their families.

There’s a lot of truth to that in Canada as well.

While the economy isn’t the only issue Canadians care about, it is one of the key drivers that decides any federal or provincial election.

To that end, the federal Conservatives got some good news on Monday when Moody’s Investor Services released its annual credit analysis of Canada.

"Canada’s Aaa rating and stable outlook continue to be supported by the country’s relatively solid economic performance, favorable trends in federal government finance and debt levels, and strong institutional and regulatory framework," notes the report.

"After a recession at the time of the global financial crisis, the economy recovered and continues to show positive momentum,
supporting improvement in government finance. At the federal level, Canada’s government debt is relatively low and, after a period of deficits, the budget is projected to return to balance in the current fiscal year and record moderate surpluses thereafter.”

Moody’s did raise some red flags including high personal and provincial debt levels but, overall, the report reads like an pseudo-endorsement of the Harper government’s economic policies.

[ Related: One year until the next election: what to expect ]

The Tories will undoubtedly use such reports and statistics as fodder for their election campaign materials in the lead-up to the October 2015 federal election.

They’ll portray themselves as the only party that can steward the economy through these uncertain times.

Meanwhile, they’ll paint NDP and the Liberal policies as ones that would be regressive.

Interestingly, over the weekend, Justin Trudeau helped buoy the Tory narrative. According to the Canadian Press, the Liberal leader told CBC Radio Canada that he would “prioritize investment in infrastructure, education, and research over any tax relief.”

CP notes that PMO spokesperson Jason MacDonald retorted saying that Trudeau will raise taxes to “spend billion of dollars” to expand government.

[ Related: Trudeau says he’s focused on building economy, not tax cuts ]

There are certainly some proverbial landmines that the Tories need to watch out for.

Specifically, dropping oil prices could have an impact on federal revenues and job growth.

They might also have to worry about drop in consumer confidence. According to Bloomberg, “Canadians’ sense of optimism about the economy slid to the lowest in 18 months amid concern the global recovery may be losing steam.”

[ Related: Justin Trudeau memoir: 7 surprising revelations from Common Ground ]

Tory strategists understand that they don’t have a lot going for them heading into the next election.

They are a government that’s been in power since 2006, will likely face some backlash from the ongoing senate expense scandal and are increasingly being viewed as tired, arrogant and secretive.

But barring a national economic downturn, the Harper Conservatives boast the advantage of having the only leader with any real ‘street-cred’ on the economy — a certain ballot box issue.

That one advantage might be enough to win them another mandate.

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