Alberta’s teacher dispute has makings of an Ontario-style debacle

Anyone wondering how Alberta's ongoing teacher dispute is going to conclude should take a quick peek at Ontario, where months of disagreement ended with the premier stepping down, but teachers no further ahead.

It was a lose-lose result, and the Alberta dispute has all the makings.

For one, the Alberta Teachers' Association (ATA) has rejected a deal that would see teacher salaries frozen for the next three years.

Factoring in cost of living increases, their Ontario kin argued, that is tantamount to a salary cut.

Next, there is the province hinting they will move forward with the salary freeze if teachers and school boards do not come to an agreement.

Play it again, Sam. They did that in Ontario, as well.

CBC News reports that ATA president Carol Henderson said they do not respond well to ultimatums. Which suggests some form of job action should the government go on with the threat.

[ Related: Alberta teachers reject 'unacceptable' offer ]

“Stripping teachers of conditions of practice and legislating a settlement could lead to instability and unrest here, similar to what was experienced in Ontario,” said ATA spokesperson Jonathan Teghtmeyer in a recent editorial.

Ontario teachers' unions were legislated into a contract earlier this year, which froze salaries for two years, reduced benefits and controversially revoked the right to strike. Things are still tense between unions and newly-minted Premier Kathleen Wynne.

Where does that leave things in Alberta? The teachers are upset about a hiring freeze, and upset that the provincial government could try to strong-arm them into a deal.

And the government is set on balancing its wobbly budget through savings in a new contract with which they appear set to move forward.

[ More Brew: Alberta school board looks to cram school week into four days ]

Alberta Minister of Education Jeff Johnson said this week that the teachers’ union decision to reject a labour contract would add "instability" to the education system.

“I’m extremely concerned that over the next year, over the next six months, over the next two years, there’s going to be instability in the system, there’s going to be impacts to the classroom,” Johnson said, according to the Calgary Herald. "And those are things we’re going to have to think about very carefully."

According to the Herald, the government's proposal would freeze salaries for the next three years, which would be followed by a two per cent increase the following year. The ATA says the offer did nothing to reduce workload while cutting back on compensation.

Alberta’s budget will be announced next week, which is when the rejected deal will officially come off the books. What come next will be spot strikes and the end of extracurricular activities, if Ontario is any indication.

And if Ontario is any indication, Alberta can expect tension to boil for months to come.