Canada’s outdoor skating tradition in danger because of climate change: study

It's a quintessentially Canadian picture: a crisp winter day, a cleared piece of pond ice and a bunch of guys (or maybe gals) playing a good ol' game of shinny.

Most of us never played pond hockey but probably practiced our skills on outdoor community rinks at some point. So any news that climate change could render outdoor skating a fond memory is bound to get a close read in this country.

Britain's Guardian newspaper is reporting that a study is suggesting that might just happen.

"Global warming has the potential to negatively affect one of Canada's primary sources of winter recreation: hockey and ice skating on outdoor rinks," says an abstract of the study published in U.K.-based Environmental Research Letters.

"Observed changes in winter temperatures in Canada suggest changes in the meteorological conditions required to support the creation and maintenance of outdoor skating rinks," the abstract says.

"While there have been observed increases in the ice-free period of several natural water bodies, there has been no study of potential trends in the duration of the season supporting the construction of outdoor skating rinks. Here we show that the outdoor skating season in Canada has significantly shortened in many regions of the country as a result of changing climate conditions."

The Guardian noted the study points especially at southern British Columbia, Alberta and other parts of the Prairies where warmer temperatures make it hard for ice to freeze sufficiently to allow skating.

"If you draw a straight line into the future you get zero rink-flooding days by mid-century which implies that at some point in that period you can't build a rink because it is not getting cold enough," Damon Matthews, a geographer at Concordia University and author of the study, told the Guardian.

Canadian news outlets naturally picked up news of the study.

Matthews told Postmedia News the Canadian research team knows of no other study on the subject but that it was an obvious thing for climate scientists to look at.

Postmedia noted several Canadian cities are investing in refrigerated outdoor skating rinks that can remain open in warmer weather.

"It would be a real shame [for outdoor rinks to close]," said Allan Bolstad, executive director of the Edmonton Federation of Community Leagues.

"We'd be losing a piece of our Canadian culture. We in Canada would miss one of the traditions we've cherished for a long time and the opportunity to get some healthy exercise at a very low cost."

Mild weather forced an early closing of Ottawa's Rideau Canal skating season and cramped the national capital's Winterlude Festival, the Ottawa Citizen reported.

But not so fast, says Michael Levi, writing in the Council on Foreign Relations' blog.

Canadian media have worked up for nothing, Levi argued.

"Most of the paper is pretty mundane and unobjectionable," Levi wrote.

"Canadian winters have been getting warmer, and with that, the number of days when outdoor ice rinks can freeze has declined. In most regions, the positive relationship between warmer climate and good days for flooding rinks isn't all that statistically significant; only in southwest and the prairies does it cross the 95 per cent percent confidence threshold that scientists typically demand."

Levi went on to challenge the study's methodology and conclusions.

"Here's a more accurate headline: Casual extrapolation of trends over an arbitrarily chosen period suggest less pond hockey in Cranbrook [B.C.] and more in Cole Harbour [N.S.]."

Levi said he doesn't deny climate change or that it could potentially affect outdoor skating in Canada.

"But that doesn't justify the proliferation of sloppy 'scientific' predictions that only serve to hurt the credibility of the entire enterprise."