Doug Ford flaunts absence of endorsements in Toronto mayoral run

When Toronto mayoral candidate Doug Ford promised to unveil a major political endorsement on Tuesday, it was notable not just because it would be his first major public backer but because he has spent the past weeks undermining their relevance.

As opponents Olivia Chow and John Tory lined up provincial and federal politicians, community groups, city councillors and others willing to trumpet their allegiance, Ford has repeatedly dismissed questions about his lack of endorsements by suggesting he had the support of “the people.”

We’ll have to wait until Oct. 27 to find out whether “the people” actually endorse Doug Ford, who is running on platform of being kind of like his brother.

And for now, we’ll have to continue waiting for Ford’s first actual endorsement. Because his major announcement on Tuesday was a four-year-old newspaper clipping that quoted rival Tory supporting Doug’s 2010 race for a council seat.

In the Toronto Star article from July 2010, Tory called Ford a “smart, button-down, no-nonsense businessperson”.

“He’s less of a personality than Rob, but if you were looking for a better-run government, Doug Ford is certainly the kind of person you would want,” Tory is quoted as saying.

The Rob that Tory refers to is, of course, Mayor Rob Ford – Doug’s brother – who has been embroiled in a series of legal issues, behavioural problems and drug- and alcohol-assisted scandals over the past four years.

Rob Ford dropped out of the mayor’s race for health reasons in September and was replaced on the ballot by Doug, who had previously said he was excited to get out of municipal politics.

Ford suspects that by naming Tory as a former supporter, he can shame him in some way. But surely what anyone said about a Ford candidacy ahead of the last election has been rendered moot by the past four years of scandal, misbehaviour and questionable government.

More to the point, Ford’s fake endorsement announcement raises debate about the value of endorsements on the campaign trail.

Despite Ford’s dismissal, endorsements can make a difference. Josh Justice, president of the election services firm PrimeContact, told the Hamilton Spectator recently that endorsements act like job references – adding credibility and name recognition to a candidacy. It says someone is willing to put their name and reputation on the line to back that candidate, and in the political arena that is not small potatoes.

"Endorsements can play a huge role in elections; however, they do not win elections," Justice told the Spectator.

There is some evidence that endorsements have an actual impact on elections. A 2008 report from the University of Maryland studied the “O Effect” – or the benefit of celebrity endorsements, based on Oprah Winfrey’s 2008 backing of Barack Obama. The result suggested her participation increased the number of votes Obama received, the overall number of people who voted and an increase in his campaign contributions.

But there is an obvious difference between Oprah and your average political endorsement. That notion remains a bit more nuanced, depending on the race, the candidates and the circumstances.

Several studies have been done on the issue, with several suggesting that group endorsements were likely to be used as a guide by uniformed voters. In short, when in doubt, one is likely to follow the lead of a known quantity with which they associate themselves.

A 2009 report from Temple University political scientists Kevin Arceneaux and Robin Kolodny in part reads:

It is in Mississauga where the value of a political endorsement can really be put under a microscope. After 26 years as the city’s popular mayor, Hazel McCallion, announced that she would not seek re-election this year. She stayed mum on endorsing a replacement candidate until last week, when she came out in favour of candidate Bonnie Crombie.

The endorsement appears to have caught opponent Steve Mahoney by surprise. According to the Toronto Sun, Katie Mahoney, Steve’s wife and a long-time councillor, called the move a “complete betrayal by an old friend.”

The surprise endorsement comes just weeks before the city votes for McCallion’s replacement. It has been a tight race, with Mahoney four-points up on Crombie when McCallion decided to throw her support to Crombie.

While it is too soon to say how the endorsement might factor into the election result, Katie Mahoney’s response speaks volumes. In the case of Mississauga, McCallion’s reputation and decades of service carry the weight of a one-person political party.

Back in Toronto, the endorsement game has gone into overdrive recently, with Chow announcing the support of Green Party Leader Elizabeth May and Tory countering with endorsements from former Green Party Leader Jim Harris and Conservative MP Lisa Raitt, the federal transportation minister. And Ford, of course, countering with Tory’s archived words.

After releasing his non-endorsement on Tuesday, Ford went on to paint his lack of actual endorsements as a good thing – claiming it meant he wouldn’t be beholden to anyone if he gets elected. But endorsements aren’t about trading favours, they are about relationships. They are about showing support and acknowledging competence.

Tory’s endorsement list includes federal Conservatives, provincial Liberals, Green Party members, business leaders, cultural proponents and as many as eight city councillors, the more recent and notable of which is Denzil Minnan-Wong, a formerly staunch Ford supporter who broke ranks with the brothers over the past term.

Chow has been endorsed by Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, dozens of community leaders and four current city councillors.

Ford’s website does not include a list of any endorsements, thought he has been publicly backed by current councillor Giorgio Mammoliti. That’s not to say Ford hasn’t necessarily tried to drum up endorsements.

Earlier in October, Ford hinted that Liberal MPP Charles Sousa had privately backed him, suggesting the provincial finance minister has said he looked forward to working with Ford during a private conversation. Sousa balked at the notion, telling the Star that the people of Ontario expect him to work with whoever is elected as the next Toronto mayor.

“However, it’s worth noting that I was co-chair for Mr. Tory’s 2003 mayoral campaign,” he wrote in an email.

All this might be mean little in this actual Toronto mayoral election, however. If endorsements help the uniformed organize their impressions of a candidate, is there any need for Ford to be chasing backers?

Everyone already has an opinion on the Ford family. While Tory and Chow may be ambiguous entities to some potential voters, almost everyone in Toronto has already formed their opinion on the Ford family name. Whether that opinion is positive or negative is beside the point – it is unlikely to be changed by an endorsement, or lack thereof, by a lesser-known politician.

Oprah’s endorsement may have had a significant effect on Obama’s 2008 presidential run, for instance, but would the needle have moved if had been Obama endorsing Oprah?