Daily BrewJohn Tory rides momentum into final stretch of Toronto mayoral campaign
First thing next week, Toronto will elect a new mayor, a new city council and by doing so, choose to put the city on a new path toward a new vision.
What that path turns out to be, and how different it promises to be from the past four years under Mayor Rob Ford, is yet to be decided. When Torontonians go to the polls on Monday they will make that decision, ending a 10-month campaign that has seen as many twists, turns and surprises as any election in recent memory.
With the time remaining countable in hours, it appears to be a two-horse race between Doug Ford, the brusque one-term councillor and older brother to the current mayor, and John Tory, a more polished conservative alternative to what Toronto has experienced since 2010. Former NDP MP Olivia Chow, once a frontrunner, has slipped behind but remains poised for a potential upset.
While Doug Ford told reporters that his campaign is in a “dead heat,” signs point to Tory taking a strong lead going into the home stretch.
The Former Ontario Progressive Conservative leader has picked up dozens of endorsements, including representatives of all levels of government – a clear sign that the federal Conservatives, the provincial Liberals and local councillors are ready and willing to work with him. On Friday, Tory secured a coveted endorsement from outgoing Mississauga Mayor Hazel McCallion, who said he would “provide the leadership that is lacking at the present time by the mayor of Toronto.”
On Saturday, he was endorsed by the National Post editorial board, finishing a clean sweep. The Globe and Mail, Toronto Star and the once-Ford-friendly Toronto Sun all previously backed Tory for the job.
Mr. Tory is, in many ways, the anti-Rob Ford. His integrity is unquestioned. In a long business career, later in politics, and always as a tireless champion of civic causes, Mr. Tory has earned a reputation for honesty, honour and the ability to unite people from all walks of life and across party lines. Toronto has not had such a mayor for the past four years, representing an unknowable price in lost opportunities. That must stop. Mr. Tory will bring maturity and dignity back to city hall.
The value of endorsements, from politicians as well as editorial boards and other organizations, may be debatable. Doug Ford certainly has dismissed the convention during the campaign, more vocally as the deck stacked against him. Most recently, Ford said McCallion’s endorsement was meaningless; Tory retorted that Ford would admit otherwise if he was given some “truth serum”.
One suspects Tory is correct. Doug’s brother previously celebrated his friendly relationship with McCallion, the 93-year-old mayor of Toronto’s largest neighbour. She holds much political sway in southern Ontario and beyond. When McCallion endorsed Bonnie Crombie to be her replacement in Mississauga, the result was an immediate surge in the polls.
McCallion’s name certainly holds more weight in Mississauga, but the fact remains. Campaign strategists have said endorsements give a campaign a boost in legitimacy. And considering the Toronto Sun and National Post backed Rob Ford in 2010, it is a sign of how things have shifted for the Ford dynasty since its heyday.
The troubles that plagued Rob Ford’s mayoralty are well known at this point, from his contentious relationship with council, which drained support for his mandate, to his string of legal troubles to the drug use and alcohol addiction.
Ford’s shadow hung over the election, even after he stepped out of the race in September for health reasons – choosing instead to run for his old council seat in Ward 2 - Etobicoke North.
Rob Ford’s departure from the race came at a pivotal time in the campaign. Momentum had already swung to Tory and polling suggested that Ford’s upside had been limited by his past controversies. When Doug stepped in, he appealed to a larger base, to conservative voters who had turned their backs on his brother. At one point, Forum Research placed Doug Ford in a statistical tie with Tory. Most recently, however, Tory has resumed a comfortable lead.
The latest survey to be released, by Mainstreet Technologies, polled 3,569 people, the largest base to date. The results suggest Tory’s lead over Ford was had solidified, and was most notable among decided and committed voters.
According to the survey, Tory received 38 per cent support in the survey, while Ford received 32 per cent and Chow received 20 per cent.
Among respondents who identified themselves as having already decided who they would be voting for, the lead stretched to 42 per cent for Tory and 34 per cent for Ford. Chow received 22 per cent support from decided voters.
Among those who are said to be certain they will cast a vote on Monday, or already have cast a vote in advanced polling, Tory’s lead increased to 42 per cent, compared to Ford’s 28 per cent.
“Doug Ford has grown his support around the city but with those Torontonians least likely to vote – Mr. Tory still commands a double digit lead among those who have voted or who are certain to vote,” Mainstreet Technologies President Quito Maggi said.
"It’s Tory’s lead among those likeliest to vote that will deliver him a win on Monday, Doug Ford’s campaign has resonated but not with the Torontonians his campaign needs."
Just hours remain until Toronto decides who will be their council’s next leader, and come Monday the campaign narrative becomes meaningless. It will become a question of who is able to rally a diverse city council, and to where he or she chooses to lead them. After four years of chaos, of moments of distraction and waves of directionless leadership, Canada’s largest city will again have a purpose. We will again have a place to go.
And someone to lead us there.
