Daily BrewToronto mayoral poll puts John Tory in lead, but Rob Ford rises despite details of bad behaviour
We've been at this Toronto mayoral election campaign thing for months now, and there has been no shortage of surprises, scandals or shakeups.
So at this point no one should be shocked that new information about Mayor Rob Ford's hopelessly damaging history of aggression and alcohol would come to light, while at the same time a new poll is released hinting he still has a chance to be re-elected.
A Forum Research poll released on Thursday puts Ford comfortably in second place, behind John Tory, and as the only of the three top candidates to expand his base of support since fifth-placed candidate Karen Stintz dropped out of the race last week.
According to the survey, Tory leads the race between the top three candidates with 36 per cent support, followed by Ford at 31 per cent and former frontrunner Olivia Chow at 26 per cent.
A poll that includes David Soknacki, a distant fourth, gives Soknacki four per cent of the vote and drops Tory to 34 per cent and Chow to 23 per cent. Ford remains at 31 per cent under this scenario.
But on the same day that the polling data was released, the Globe and Mail and Toronto Star both reported fresh allegations of impropriety dating back to Ford's time as the football coach for the Don Bosco Catholic Secondary School.
According to details secured through a lengthy access to information request, Ford and his brother Doug were abusive to teachers and the principal of the school, and that the mayor mistreated his position as coach by making students roll around is goose feces and showing up visibly intoxicated to at least one practice.
The details were gleaned from an investigation launched by the school last year, after Ford painted the school troubled institution located in a "tough area" and the players as former gang members who come from "broken homes" in public comments.
Those comments, described as inaccurate and damaging by school officials, prompted a review of Ford's time as coach and resulted in him being banned from coaching at schools in the Catholic school system.
As part of that review, teachers and the school's principal reported several transgressions. The full reports can be found here and here, but the highlights (or lowlights) include:
Ford violating rules by holding a football practice before the 2012 school year began. When told he couldn't do that by a teacher, he swore at the teacher and tried to fight him.
Proceeding to hold unauthorized practices, during which one student broke his collarbone.
Delaying and declining to complete a police background check, which is normal procedure for any school volunteer. When it was finally completed, it had been signed by Chief Bill Blair himself – a seemingly bizarre happenstance for a standard background-check letter.
This occurred around the same time that one of Ford's friends, volunteering as an assistant coach, completed his own background check after misspelling his own name, resulting in a check that did not uncover criminal convictions for violent offences.
Ford also was said to have made players roll in "goose scat" after being disappointed with their performance during a game.
Ford also arrived visibly inebriated at a November 2012 practice held just hours after a judge ruled that he had violated conflict of interest rules and kicked him out of office. That ruling was overturned on appeal.
Doug Ford also reportedly attempted to bribe the principal and used a racial slur against a teacher after his brother was removed as coach.
This latest information, dating back to one of the most contentious times in Mayor Ford's rule, are salacious and concerning and also will be entirely ignored by the voting public, at least those who have shown a willingness to forgive Ford for any and all indiscretions.
Since Ford returned from rehab in early July, his polling numbers have slowly creeped up.
In a three-way race between himself, Tory and Chow, he has climbed from 28 per cent on July 2 to 31 per cent in the latest poll, taken Aug. 25-26.
Chow, meantime, has dropped from 38 per cent of the vote to 26 per cent. (Here is columnist Edward Keenan explaining why that may be. Hint: It's because Chow's early message of being "not Rob Ford" just hasn’t been enough.)
Over that same time, Tory has climbed from 30 per cent to 36 per cent, establishing the former Ontario PC leader as both the leading "Stop Ford" candidate and a legitimate option for conservative voters.
Still, Ford's ascension cannot be overlooked. While 31 per cent may not be enough to win, Ford's trajectory suggests it is not out of reach.
His approval rating, still drastically lower than every other legitimate candidate, sits at 39 per cent, suggesting there is perhaps more voters who would consider rejoining Ford Nation.
A Forum Research survey question asking whether respondents would vote for Ford now sits at 33 per cent – the highest mark since June.
The poll also found that the number of Torontonians calling for Ford to resign immediately has dropped from 58 per cent earlier in the month (and a peak of 63 per cent in June) to 50 per cent.
"[I]t looks like Rob Ford is on the comeback trail, and although John Tory still has the lead, it is narrowing. Olivia Chow, on the other hand, is suffering from a different kind of over-exposure. She was introduced to her public too long before she entered the race, and has already peaked. With her timing, the election should have been in June," Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff said in a statement.
Of significant note, this is also the first poll released since Stintz announced she was ending her campaign on Aug. 21, providing the first real shakeup of the months-long campaign. The poll found that those who were going to vote for Stintz, a conservative councillor, have shifted in approximately equal numbers to Ford and Tory, and to a lesser extent Chow.
The negative Rob Ford headlines, no matter how much they point to a sense of entitlement, a short temper and a history of poor judgement, are not likely to slow down Ford's ascension. Only the final stretch of the campaign will decide whether he stays or goes.
Labour Day is often pointed to as the moment the municipal campaign goes from the background to the foreground of public consciousness. Meaning that soon, Torontonians will begin considering what future they want for their city. Ford's failings in the past are only a small part of how they will decide. It will be up to the candidates to start giving them a better reason to send Ford packing.
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