What taxpayers can expect from the 2015 federal budget

The much-delayed federal budget will finally be released later this month but what can Canadian taxpayers expect?

A general election is scheduled for October – if not sooner –and traditionally, the pre-election budget is a sweet treat for voters from agovernment hungry for their support.

But tanking oil prices have left Finance Minister Joe Oliver with a fairly bare cupboard this year.

The message from most is: Don’t expect much on April 21st.

“He’s already answered the big question, which is will the budget be balanced,” Aaron Wudrick, federal director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, tells Yahoo Canada News.

The federation applauds the promise of a budget in the black following seven years of deficit spending.

Wudrick hopes there is no massive new spending.

“It’s an election year. In an election year, governments of all stripes are tempted to spend lots of money because they see it as a way to curry favour right before a vote,” he says.

“We hope they resist the temptation to do that.”

Much already announced

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has already announced what are likely the only goodies to be expected.

In October, Harper unveiled the Family Tax Cut, a tax credit worth up to $2,000 for couples with children under the age of 18.

An eleventh-hour fulfilment of the income-splitting promised in the last election campaign, the Family Tax Cut allows one spouse to transfer up to $50,000 of taxable income to a spouse in a lower income tax bracket.

Harper also announced increases to the Universal Child Care Benefit and the Child Care Expense Deduction.

The Universal Child Care Benefit will jump from $100 a month for children under age six to $160 a month, and parents will now be able to claim $60 a month for children aged six to 17.

The Child Care Expense Deduction jumps from $7,000 to $8,000 and the Children’s Fitness Tax Credit doubles, to up to $1,000 a year.

“I think there are not going to be a lot of other big-ticket items,” Wudrick says.

Whether or not the Harper government will raise the limit on Tax Free Savings Accounts (TFSA) — from $5,500 to either $10,000 or $11,000, annually — is still anyone’s guess. Harper first alluded to an increase in 2011, stipulating any expansion of the program would have to wait until the budget was balanced.

If the TFSA limit is raised to $10,000, government coffers would take a hit of roughly $7.5 million in the first year and $30 million in the second year of the rollout, according to the 2011 Conservative election platform.

Weighing austerity and oil

Almost everyone expects a balanced budget – even those who are not pleased about it.

The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives says the Conservative government’s “obsession” with austerity and balancing the budget has resulted in higher household debt, fewer services and weakened job growth.

The left-leaning think-tank would prefer to see stimulus spending on things like poverty reduction and affordable housing, even if it means a small deficit.

But in their alternative budget released earlier this month centre economists predict the Conservative government will continue to focus on debt.

“The federal government will underspend on services, with noticeable impacts on service quality, in particular for veterans and those receiving employment insurance,” it says.

The impact of the sharp decline in oil prices will be felt in fiscal 2015-16, says Randall Bartlett, senior economist for TD Economics.

“That’s put the federal government in a bit of a tight spot, in that we’re in an election year and the expectation was that the government would balance the budget,” he tells Yahoo Canada News.

Oliver has ruled out spending cuts.

And “we’re not expecting the government to raise taxes. That’s off the table from everything we’ve seen and experienced under this government,” Bartlett says.

The government holds 75 million shares of GM, worth roughly $3.5 billion. Such an asset sale would easily put them in the black.

It also has a $3.5-billion contingency fund that could be tapped to balance the books, he says.

“There’s not a lot the government has to do,” he says.

The fixed federal election date is scheduled for Oct. 19, though it’s not binding and Canadians could find themselves in the throes of a campaign any time now.