Does the Chilean earthquake point to a much bigger one on the way?

The magnitude 8.2 earthquake that struck the coast of northern Chile on Tuesday night was quite powerful, but according to an article on CNN.com, it apparently wasn't 'The Big One' geologists are expecting for the region, and a bigger one could be on the way.

Whenever the subject of earthquakes comes up, especially when talking about the west coast of North America, the conversation eventually turns to The Big One — the massive, devastating earthquake, measuring around 9.0 or higher on the Richter scale, that's destined to strike at some point, causing untold destruction and loss of life. North America's west coast isn't the only place that's vulnerable to a Big One, though.

The west coast of South America is expecting a 'Big One' at some point. Tuesday's quake wasn't it, though, as stronger quakes have rattled that region of the world, even in recent years. Just over four years ago, on February 27, 2010, a magnitude 8.8 earthquake shook the central Chilean coastline, just to the southwest of the capital city of Santiago. While Tuesday's quake was shallow but far off shore, the one in 2010 was deep, roughly 30 kilometres underground, but it struck only 3 kilometres off the coast. That put communities much closer to the epicentre and it also meant that the tsunami generated by the quake not only reached land much quicker, but it was higher as well, over 2.5 metres tall in regions closest to the epicentre.

According to what Caltech geophysicist Mark Simons told CNN, geologists are expecting an even larger one there at some point. However, while that's true, it's also true for pretty much everywhere where tectonic plates rub against each other in these subduction zones.

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The megathrust earthquake and resulting tsunami that hit Japan in March of 2011 is a perfect example of one of these quakes and its effects. It measured 9.0 on the Richter scale, lasted for around six minutes, and touched off a 40 metre-tall tsunami that devastated the east coast of the island nation. All told, the disaster caused an estimated 235 billion U.S. dollars in damages, claimed nearly 16,000 lives, and over 2,600 people are still catalogued as missing. In addition to the destruction and loss of life, it had some incredible impacts on the local geology and even on the planet. The landmass of northern Japan shifted over 2 metres closer to North America, and around 400 kilometres of the coastline dropped down over half a metre in response to the massive shift in the tectonic plates. The intense release of energy, the equivalent of detonating 480 megatons of TNT (nearly 10 times the size of anything humans have set off), shifted the axis of our planet by a very small amount (maybe 10-25 cm) and even shortened our day by around 2 microseconds.

The disastrous earthquake and tsunami in the Indian Ocean on Dec. 26, 2004 is another example, as it was the third largest earthquake ever measured by a seismograph (between 9.1 and 9.3 on the Richter scale). Since this quake struck along the ocean floor, most of the casualties caused by it were due to the resulting tsunami, which reached up to 30 metres tall along some of the coastlines impacted by it. Estimates put the number of dead at anywhere from 230,000 to 280,000 people, in nations all around the Indian Ocean.

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When are these Big Ones likely to strike?

Well, that's the problem. Nobody really knows. It could be today, tomorrow, 100 years from now, or quite possibly never. Although we do have statistics, based on the past, that can tell us how often certain types of earthquakes happen in various parts of the world, there's no reliable method of earthquake prediction right now. It's possible there may never be one until we reach a point where technology can image or model the entire Earth in real time to monitor where all the tectonic plates are shifting and sliding against each other. Given the magnitude of that task, it will be awhile before we get there.

What's the best thing to do about all this? Be prepared. If you live in a region of the world that's prone to earthquakes (or maybe even if you don't), be sure to have some kind of disaster kit (food, water, first aid kit, flashlight, radio and batteries) on hand, and a plan in mind for what to do if a quake or some other disaster strikes.

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