Is this the year Boise State gets an NCAA Tournament win? Here’s what experts say
It’s a stat that gives Boise State men’s basketball coach Leon Rice reason to believe this year could be different: All five of his starters have already played in an NCAA Tournament game.
And what, exactly, is going to be different?
“Every year you expect more and you expect to do more,” Boise State redshirt senior Max Rice said. “I think it’s becoming the norm in this program that we expect to go to the NCAA Tournament. Now, obviously, we expect to win a game in the tournament. We expect to win multiple games in the tournament.”
In eight previous NCAA Tournament appearances, Boise State has yet to win a game. The 10th-seeded Broncos (24-9) hope to change that when they tip off against No. 7 Northwestern (21-11) at 5:35 p.m. Mountain time Thursday at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. The game will be nationally televised on truTV.
Four of Boise State’s starters — Marcus Shaver Jr., Max Rice, Naje Smith and Tyson Degenhart — played in the Broncos’ 64-53 loss to Memphis last season, while Texas Tech transfer Chibuzo Agbo played in the Red Raiders’ first-round victory over Montana State a year ago. The group has a combined 103 minutes on the court in NCAA Tournament action, plus reserve Lukas Milner logged 9 minutes last season for the Broncos.
“There is value to that. No doubt,” Leon Rice said. “It’s called experience. The first time you go (to the NCAA Tournament), there’s some looking around. When guys have played in it before … you know what you’re supposed to be doing and know what you have to do and you know how hard it is and how good your opponent’s gonna be. All those things that maybe if you haven’t been there before, you don’t know.”
While the Broncos have six players with NCAA Tournament experience, Northwestern is making its first appearance since 2017 and second in program history. But the Wildcats happen to have something Boise State doesn’t: an NCAA Tournament win. So who has the edge in this matchup?
Here’s what national experts have to say about Thursday’s first-round matchup between the Broncos and Wildcats:
Dan Treacy, Sporting News
What they’re saying: “This looks like a low-scoring game, considering the way both of these teams defend. Northwestern and Boise State rank 13th and 14th in defensive efficiency, respectively. The intensity of an NCAA Tournament game for two programs without a long track record of success could also keep the score low.”
Prediction: “If we’re looking at a close, low-scoring game, the best choice seems to be Boo Buie and Northwestern to hit that key shot and prevail in a high-pressure moment. Boise State’s late-game collapse in the Mountain West Tournament only reinforces that idea.”
Devon Platana, Fan Duel
What they’re saying: “Northwestern has lost a lot of steam in recent weeks. Its loss to Penn State was the program’s fourth defeat in its last five outings. A sputtering offense is one reason for the Wildcats’ lack of success over that stretch. While they only average 67.7 PPG this season (T-No. 254), that number has dropped to 63.2 PPG over the last five outings.”
Prediction: “I don’t expect Northwestern’s offense to pick up here. Boise State only surrenders 64.7 PPG (No. 32) while holding opponents to 41.5% shooting from the field (No. 42) and 31.0% from the 3-point line (No. 32). The Broncos are also scoring 74.0 PPG over their last three outings — a number that’s too much for the Wildcats, who have only scored 70-plus points once since Feb. 2. Back Boise State taking advantage of a vulnerable Northwestern squad.”
Ross Bentley, Orlando Sentinel
What they’re saying: “If you’re scanning the NCAA Tournament field for a possible bracket breaker, the Boise State Broncos may be just what you’re looking for. Boise State spent much of the season on the bubble in the MWC, before a late surge that included a huge home win over MWC regular-season champs San Diego State moved them safely into the field.”
Prediction: “The Broncos are a dangerous group in the West region and could present a difficult matchup for 2nd-round opponent if they can get by Northwestern.”
Iain MacMillan, Fansided
What they’re saying: “I have a general rule of not betting on Mountain West teams in the NCAA Tournament. They are 1-11 both straight up and against the spread in their first games of the tournament. But, I’m making an exception to that rule in this spot. Northwestern is one of the most fraudulent teams in this year’s edition of the tournament, especially as a No. 7 seed.”
Prediction: “Don’t even bother with the spread, I’m betting on Boise State to win this game outright. It’s time to fade the fraudulent Wildcats who stumbled down the stretch at the end of the season.”
Jay Bilas, ESPN
What they’re saying: “The Broncos play loose but smart and are fearless competitors. While the Broncos are good offensively, they win because they guard the 3-point line. Boise State holds opponents to just 30% from deep. Boise State has quality wins over Texas A&M, San Diego State, Nevada, New Mexico and Utah State.”
Prediction: “Boise State. This is offense and defense against defense. Northwestern is good, but Boise is a good upset pick.”
