California’s primary election turnout was low. Really low. What does that say about November?
Good morning and welcome to the A.M. Alert!
WHAT DOES THE MARCH PRIMARY TELL US ABOUT THE NOVEMBER ELECTION
Election Day is 117 days away. That can feel like an instant or it can feel like a lifetime. But as it draws inexorably closer, the Public Policy Institute of California this week took a look at what we can expect come November, based on what we saw during the March primary.
As the PPIC noted in its blog post, California’s March primary turnout was low even by already low primary turnout standards. Only 35% of registered voters actually did the act, down 12 percentage points from 2020’s primary election.
“The lack of competition at the presidential level likely played a significant role, since Joe Biden and Donald Trump had effectively eliminated all meaningful opposition by March. But low participation had consequences all the same,” the blog post noted.
California’s turnout was lowest among Asian Americans, African Americans and Latinos, with those three groups making up just under a third (30%) of those who cast a primary election ballot. Those three demographics combined make up 47% of the state’s registered voters, according to the PPIC.
Also notable was the age gap in voters. Only 16% of registered voters under 35 voted in the primary, compared to 60% of voters age 65 and older.
No Party Preference voters were less likely to participate in the election than were either Democrats or Republicans. Just a fifth (21%) of NPP voters cast a ballot, compared to 37% of Democrats and 46% of Republicans. No Party Preference voters were able to request a Democratic primary ballot. However, the California Republican Party had a closed primary.
“Such disparities will likely narrow as we look ahead to the fall. Presidential elections are the great equalizer of voter turnout,” the PPIC noted.
NEWSOM TRAILS TRUMP IN HEAD-TO-HEAD POLL
Via David Lightman...
California Gov. Gavin Newsom trails former President Trump by 8 in a hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup, a new Emerson College Poll reported Tuesday.
The nationwide survey of registered voters, taken July 7 and 8, comes as speculation grew over whether President Joe Biden would stay in the race. Biden has vowed to continue.
But just in case…
Newsom trailed Trump, 48% to 40%.
That was a similar showing among some of the oft-mentioned alternatives.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro was behind Trump, 46% to 38%. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was behind, 49% to 39%.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who said Monday she was not interested in running this year, was behind Trump, 48% to 38%.
The favorite should Biden not run is Vice President Kamala Harris. She did better than the alternative, trailing Trump 49% to 43%.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“The people of this state deserve the Governor’s respect and attention. He needs to be here — in person — to work with the Legislature and solve the state’s crises. Californians deserve to be prioritized over other states.”
- Assemblyman Tom Lackey, R-Palmdale, via X.
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