California voters deadlocked over Gavin Newsom’s Prop. 1. Can mental health measure hang on?
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PROP. 1 MARGIN GETS NARROWER AND NARROWER
Via Jenavieve Hatch
Californians are nearly deadlocked on the “treatment not tents” ballot measure backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom.
The measure, Proposition 1, would restructures the state’s Mental Health Services Act (MHSA) and unlock more than $6 billion in bond funding for homelessness housing and behavioral health treatment centers.
Initial vote results after polls closed showed the ballot measure with 52% in favor and 47% opposed.
By early Wednesday morning, though, the margin was razor-thin, with 50.2% of California voters supporting the measure and 49.8% opposing.
Early returns at the county level show that rural, more conservative counties voted in opposition to the measure, while Democratic and densely populated counties voted to support it.
Some county boards, including those in Placer and El Dorado counties, voted for formal resolutions opposing the measure, saying it would detract from local mental health and homelessness services in favor of a top-down, “one-size-fits-all” approach.
And despite the strange bedfellows that support for the proposition garnered — including prominent Democrats, some Republican legislators, police unions and sheriff’s offices — the results align with polling before the election.
A poll conducted by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies showed not just a partisan divide among likely voters, but a divide between homeowners and renters.
The poll, which surveyed 6,536 registered voters in February, showed that 70% of Democrats were likely to vote for Proposition 1, while 63% of Republicans were likely to vote no. At the same time, 58% of renters said they would likely vote yes on the measure, and only 46% of homeowners said the same.
The vote remains too close to call, and the Secretary of State’s Office has until April 12 to certify results. Either way, the proposition was not the win that Newsom, who cleared all other ballot measures from the primary election slate, likely envisioned.
PURPLE ASSEMBLY DISTRICTS SET UP RED VS. BLUE MATCHUPS
Several purple California Assembly districts will likely see tight Democrat-versus-Republican competitions in November — including at least one rematch of a 2022 race that came down to the wire.
Initial primary election results show Democrats will once again be duking it out with Republicans in Palm Springs and Santa Clarita. In the Sacramento suburbs, they may get a chance to flip a seat they lost to the GOP two years ago.
Palm Springs Assemblyman Greg Wallis, a Republican, will once again battle Democrat Christy Holstege in the 47th Assembly District. Wallis won the seat by just 85 votes in 2022. Initial tallies showed Holstege with 49% of the vote, while Wallis had about 46%. Another Democrat, Jamie Swain, trailed with just 5.3%.
Santa Clarita Assemblywoman Pilar Schiavo, a Democrat, will defend her 40th Assembly District seat against a challenge from Republican Patrick Gipson. Schiavo won her 2022 election against incumbent Republican Assemblywoman Suzette Martinez Valladares by 522 votes.
Early totals showed Gipson with 54% of the vote, while Schiavo had about 46%
In Folsom and surrounding suburbs east of Sacramento, Republican Assemblyman Josh Hoover will likely be fending off Democrat and Citrus Heights City Council member Portia Middleton. Hoover in 2022 took over the 7th Assembly District seat from longtime Democratic Assemblyman Ken Cooley, winning by nearly 1,400 votes.
Initial results showed Hoover in the lead with nearly 52% of the vote, while Middleton had about 30%. Another Democrat, Folsom City Council member YK Chalamcherla, was in third with nearly 18%.
LEE BOWS OUT OF U.S. SENATE RACE
Via David Lightman
U.S. Rep. Barbara Lee, a favorite of progressives who finished a distant fourth in Tuesday’s U.S. Senate primary, left the race Wednesday saying “our voices and values were heard loud and clear.”
Lee, a veteran congresswoman from Oakland, didn’t have the campaign money that rivals Reps. Adam Schiff, D-Burbank, or Katie Porter, D-Irvine, had. And she was hurt by a surge of Republican support for former baseball player Steve Garvey.
But Lee said Wednesday her campaign mattered.
“I was proud to run a grassroots, multicultural and multi-generational campaign that gave a voice to all those wanting to see true progressive change,” she said.
“Despite being heavily outspent by my opponents, our values never wavered. In every step of this campaign, we never backed down from our progressive vision, and worked relentlessly to build a coalition that represents communities that too often are not afforded a seat at the table.”
Schiff and Garvey will face each other for the California U.S. Senate seat in November’s general election.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“If welfare recipients have to be drug tested to get their checks, so should elected officials. Some of y’all need to stop looking down your nose at poor and working class people because they can’t afford the same quality of drugs you can.”
- Political affairs consultant Samantha Corbin via X, formerly known as Twitter, on a San Francisco ballot measure requiring drug screenings for welfare recipients.
Best of the Bee:
▪ Top 4 Sacramento mayoral candidates have shot at making runoff in closely watched race, via Theresa Clift.
▪ How did Sacramento County vote on Proposition 1? US Senate race? See your neighborhood, via Hanh Truong and Phillip Reese.
▪ Why do California’s early election results show such low turnout? ‘People were super unexcited,’ via Rosalio Ahumada.
