Which candidate is working harder to win the White House? It’s not even close

To put it mildly, 2020 has been one weird year. And these presidential campaigns are no exception.

A most striking difference in the current presidential campaigns of President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden is the stark contrast in the efforts put forth by these two men in their 70s.

In 1960, Richard Nixon vowed to visit every state. Big mistake. He lost. Truth is, most states do not matter when it comes to winning the White House through the Electoral College. Remember that fact when you see the media’s repetitious reports on one candidate’s lead in national polling.

Ever since 1960, except for occasional travel head-fakes, candidates have focused their precious time and resources on the most important states, according to their individual strategies.

You won’t, for instance, see Biden waste one minute in California or Massachusetts, just as Trump will not sidetrack himself seeking votes in Wyoming, Utah or Mississippi. They already own those.

Americans of both parties like to see political leaders work for their votes, even outright ask for them, a nod to citizens’ leverage that will evaporate come Nov. 4. So, we usually see both parties’ nominees and their surrogates making sprawling geographic circuits through key states such as Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina and Florida, touching down for remarks and photo-ops in the media markets that will transmit their message and image through that state or region.

We see that usual pattern nowadays with the president’s tireless efforts, hopping from market to market and state to state, attracting thousands of faithful and curious, reaching millions more on TV. Sometimes hitting two or three states in a day, five this past weekend. He was sidelined a while with a COVID-19 diagnosis. But the day after the doctor cleared him, Trump flew to Florida. There, he appeared energetic and unusually focused in remarks, stressing the economy, his strongest suit according to polls.

And his crowds have reciprocated, with thousands turning out in Des Moines on a chilly night and, just 12 hours later, thousands more in North Carolina. On Friday, Trump was at three events in Florida and Georgia. Saturday in Michigan and Wisconsin. Sunday in Nevada and California.

On Thursday, just 18 days before the election, Biden finished up his public appearances before 10 a.m. On Friday, he was in Michigan. And that’s it. On Sunday, he stopped appearances through Thursday to prepare for this week’s debate.

Some suspect that Biden is no longer up to the truly grinding schedule of a real presidential campaign. Perhaps. If that’s the case, is he honestly up to real presidential pressures?

The ex-vice president is certainly playing the political version of football’s prevent defense. Guard your lead in the closing minutes, don’t let your opponent score, make no big mistakes. On the football field at least, the ultra-careful prevent defense often prevents victory instead.

You may remember, for instance, that during the Democratic primaries, Biden was all for legislatively expanding Supreme Court membership with liberal judges. Now, not so much. He never said it. He didn’t mean it. He’ll explain what he meant after the election. The latest version is he’ll offer details just before Nov. 3, when possibly half the votes have already been cast.

Being so utterly cautious could seem to make sense. According to relentless media reports, Biden enjoys a wide lead over the incumbent in national polls. So much so, many media reports claim, that Biden may well be on track for a historic landslide win, with Democrats likely keeping control of the House, recapturing the Senate and clearing the way for new taxes, cutting the military and who knows what else.

What, by the way, do you think of Biden’s overall campaign message? What, by the way, is Biden’s overall campaign message? Besides “I’m not Trump.” He has none, folks.

Does that ring any bells? What was the confident Hillary Clinton’s overall campaign message four years ago? Other than, “It’s my turn.” She had none.

Here are a few other striking political parallels from 2016:

In mid-October four years ago, major network and print polls gave Clinton double-digit leads, up to 10 or 12 points over Trump. Last week, two major national polls and a rolling average gave Biden a 10.4-point lead over Trump.

In 2016, RealClearPolitics poll averages had Clinton ahead in key battleground states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, even Ohio. Biden’s current lead in most of those states is slightly smaller than hers was. Clinton ended up losing them all. Pollsters missed, among other things, millions of “shy” voters reluctant to admit their Trump support to others.

For sure, a consistent majority of Americans does not seem to like Trump. They do, however, like underdogs and fighters, and this isn’t a high school popularity contest. It’s a choice of who will stand up to China and wind down the wars. As someone who predicted in 2015 that Donald J. Trump could never even win the GOP nomination, I’ve learned my lesson. In two weeks, we’ll see if Democrats have too.