A change in the latest SC GOP presidential power rankings. Who moved up, who moved down?

Last month’s Republican presidential debate was the first time many potential voters across the nation — and here in early primary powerhouse South Carolina — got a good look at the competition field. Nikki Haley threw punches, Vivek Ramaswany made a bold introduction to the electorate, Tim Scott showed everyone why he’s a nice guy, and Donald Trump was both physically absent and ever-present in the night’s discourse.

In the three weeks since, Palmetto State been abuzz with campaign stops from at least three of those Republicans seeking the White House, while some candidates have seen an increase in fundraising.

And it’s all led to another shakeup in The State’s presidential candidate power rankings.

A little refresher: The State newspaper asked six political observers in South Carolina to rank their top five candidates according to who they believe would have the best chance to win the South Carolina Republican presidential primary if it were today.

A first-place vote received five points in the ranking calculations, a second place vote received four points, a third place vote received three points, a fourth place vote received two points, and a fifth place vote received one point.

Not ranked but receiving votes: Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (1 point) and former Vice President Mike Pence (1 point).

5th place: Vivek Ramaswamy

Vivek Ramaswamy, a billionaire entrepreneur, remains fifth in the ranking, garnering 7 points after debuting last month.

Ramaswamy became a target of his fellow Republican candidates during the first debate but appeared to hold his own. He also had a viral moment when he was able to rap the lyrics to Eminem’s “Lose Yourself” during an August appearance at the Iowa State Fair.

“(He) seems to be running as the heir to Trump and, like the former president, really enjoys campaigning and garnering media attention,” said Adolphus Belk, a Winthrop University political science professor. “However, governing requires a different skill set than being out on the stump or dropping Eminem bars at the state fair. Ramaswamy has to convince SC voters that, despite having zero experience in government, he’s up to the task.”

Ramaswamy has performed well in national polls and has received more attention in the media and from fellow candidates.

“With some recent polls placing Ramaswamy as high as third or even second behind only (former President) Donald Trump one could argue that he should be higher up this list,” said Chase Meyer, a University of South Carolina political science professor. “But for a candidate with no previous political experience and who the media is starting to shine the light on, I have a hard time seeing him actually beating any of the front-runners.”

Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur who is running for the Republican Party’s nomination for president, speaks at the South Carolina Republican Party State Convention at River Bluff High School on Saturday, May 20, 2023.
Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur who is running for the Republican Party’s nomination for president, speaks at the South Carolina Republican Party State Convention at River Bluff High School on Saturday, May 20, 2023.

4th place: Tim Scott

South Carolina’s junior U.S. Sen. Tim Scott dropped two spots in the rankings, garnering 14 points.

He did not have a breakout moment during the first presidential debate, trying to stay above the food fight and keep an optimistic approach.

“He was a non event in debate. Has had to deal with his single status and did so somewhat awkwardly, but his coffers are full and that matters,” said Chip Felkel, a public and political affairs strategist who worked on the presidential campaigns of George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush.

Scott’s campaign war chest is allowing him to stay on the air and keep getting his message out on television ads in Iowa and New Hampshire. What happens in other early voting states could play a role in what happens in South Carolina.

“A strong showing in Iowa among evangelical Christians could really help Scott’s chances in the Palmetto State,” said Gibbs Knotts, a College of Charleston political science professor.

Tim Scott greets patrons at Alex’s Restaurant in Goose Creek on Friday April 14, 2023.
Tim Scott greets patrons at Alex’s Restaurant in Goose Creek on Friday April 14, 2023.

3rd place: Ron DeSantis

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis remained in third place in the ranking, with 17 points.

“The governor has been a steady hand at the wheel of his campaign - and his state - over the last month. He has quieted some of the critics who dogged him over the summer,” said Rob Godfrey, a South Carolina political consultant, who previously worked for Haley when she was governor. “And he has the resources to continue building an infrastructure for the long haul that helps him compete well into the primary process.”

Recent polling hasn’t been good for DeSantis, including one poll that had him in fourth place in South Carolina.

“DeSantis suffered the most notable drop in polling, both nationally, and here in South Carolina,” Knotts said. “The culture wars and his ‘anti-woke’ agenda have not resonated with a large portion of South Carolina GOP voters. Team DeSantis needs to figure out a way to pull his campaign out of its current tailspin.”

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is running for the Republican Party’s nomination for president, holds a rally in Gilbert, South Carolina on Friday, June 2, 2023.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is running for the Republican Party’s nomination for president, holds a rally in Gilbert, South Carolina on Friday, June 2, 2023.

2nd place: Nikki Haley

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley moved up one spot to second place in the latest rankings, tallying 20 points. In the previous ranking, she was tied in third place with DeSantis.

Since the first debate, Haley has earned some of the strongest headlines. She was widely lauded for her debate performance where she came out swinging, taking shots at DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Pence, Scott and Trump.

“Nikki Haley ... handled the debate with aplomb and demonstrated competence with a range of issues and behaved in a way that suburban women tired of chaos may appreciate,” said Danielle Vinson, a professor of politics and international affairs at Furman University.

Haley saw interest in her candidacy grow after that first debate. A poll showed her solidly in second place in South Carolina, and another poll showed she would be the best Republican to go up against President Joe Biden in a head to head matchup.

“The first debate created buzz around the Haley campaign that hasn’t existed since she announced,” Godfrey said. “You can see it everywhere from the volume of news coverage surrounding her campaign to the number of people showing up to her events - whether this is a moment or momentum is a question her campaign will answer in the weeks ahead.”

Much of Haley’s post-debate messaging has been on foreign policy, a way to show case her credentials as former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

“Presidential campaigns are largely won or lost on domestic concerns,” Belk said. “Yet, in the time since her strong debate performance in Wisconsin, Haley has talked up foreign policy matters like the war in Ukraine, U.S.-China relations, and taking on the Mexican drug cartels. It’s a tough play, but Haley’s fighting hard to separate from the pack and gain ground on Trump and DeSantis. “

Nikki Haley speaks to home-town supporters during a campaign rally at The Grove in Lexington County on Thursday, April 06, 2023.
Nikki Haley speaks to home-town supporters during a campaign rally at The Grove in Lexington County on Thursday, April 06, 2023.

1st place: Donald Trump

Former President Donald Trump remains the unanimous No. 1 pick in The State’s power ranking, earning 30 points.

Trump skipped the first presidential debate and is now enmeshed in four criminal cases.

Despite that, his support among Republican voters remains strong, maybe even improved.

“After skipping the first debate Trump’s polling numbers did slip slightly, but they have since recovered,” Meyer said. “If skipping a debate and more indictments do not cause permanent harm to his campaign, then what on earth will?”

Trump leads in national polls and in recent South Carolina polls. In a Washington Post-Monmouth University Poll, Trump had a 28- point lead over Haley.

“This is still Donald Trump’s race to lose. He continues to maintain strong favorability numbers in South Carolina,” Godfrey said. “But candidates are gaining on him. The question is whether they are in the middle of fleeting moments or building sustainable momentum. The next few weeks will tell us a lot about that.”

Former President Donald Trump speaks at the Silver Elephant Gala in Columbia, South Carolina on August 5, 2023.
Former President Donald Trump speaks at the Silver Elephant Gala in Columbia, South Carolina on August 5, 2023.