Chiefs will be tested in Baltimore. If they win, here’s what awaits in the Super Bowl

The Chiefs are coming off their most difficult playoff test in the Patrick Mahomes tenure.

Even more difficult this week.

At surface level, those appear to be statements of opinion, but they’re actually facts based on the implied odds from the betting market in Las Vegas — you know, the city where the Chiefs hope to play in a couple of weeks.

Which brings me to the same caveat as every week prior: The Chiefs need to beat the Ravens in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game for any of what follows to be relevant. The Chiefs are notably 4-point underdogs there, the largest spread in a Mahomes start other than Week 2 of his first year under center.

So, yeah, they have some work to do. But if they win, they’d see the winner of the NFC Championship Game between the 49ers and the Lions in the Super Bowl in Vegas.

There would be some poetry to a Chiefs-Lions game — the NFL season would open and close with the same matchup. It would be another kind of rematch with the 49ers — the two teams, of course, met in Super Bowl LIV, the first Mahomes title.

Here’s a breakdown of each potential matchup:

San Francisco 49ers

Implied odds of reaching Super Bowl: 75%

What to know: There are only good teams left — that’s kind of how this works, after all — but the 49ers are the very best the NFC has to offer.

They lead the league in yards per play, and they’re particularly stout on the early downs. Nobody in football is more efficient throwing the ball on early downs. Nobody in football is more efficient running the ball on the early downs, per Sumer Sports. It’s no secret, then, why the 49ers finished as the top seed in the NFC.

Quarterback Brock Purdy sparks plenty of debate regarding his true value in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, but that has zero effect on the Chiefs. What does matter is the 49ers can sling it — whoever might be responsible. Brandon Aiyuk finished second in the NFL in yards per route run, according to Sumer, and George Kittle led all tight ends in the same statistic. Oh, by the way, the 49ers might also have Deebo Samuel back. And one more thing: Christian McCaffrey ranked in the top 5 or just outside it in yards per carry, success rate and the percentage of his plays that were explosive runs.

A lot of options, in other words.

And if you think blitzing is one way to counter it — which the Chiefs like to do — you might want to reconsider. Purdy led the NFL with a 122.1 passer rating against the blitz, and his 10.0 yards per attempt against it was more than a full yard better than any other quarterback, per data on PFF. That would present an interesting matchup for Steve Spagnuolo, who isn’t shy about sending a few extra pass rushers.

What would it look like on the other side of the ball? The 49ers are very good defensively, to be sure, though perhaps not quite as stout as they were when the two teams met in the Super Bowl four years ago. They are vulnerable defending the run, particularly on the edges. And while in that Super Bowl season, their pressure percentage led the NFL at 28.7% and caused the Chiefs all sorts of problems, that number is at 20.9% this year, per Pro Football Reference.

Detroit Lions

Implied odds of reaching Super Bowl: 25%

What to know: There are no easy potential matchups in the Super Bowl, but the Lions aren’t quite the dangerous-across-the-board team that the 49ers have been. Put it this way: There’s a reason San Francisco is a 7.5-point favorite Sunday on its home field.

Still, there’s a reason the Lions, who opened the season with a win in Kansas City, are playing football deep into January. They are effective both running and passing the ball, fifth in yards per carry and fourth in yards per pass play. You might not notice many similarities between Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff on the field, but they do attack a defense in one common thread: short passes. Mahomes finished with the shortest average depth of target in the NFL; Goff was the fourth-lowest, per PFF. That’s made easier when you have receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who finished top-10 in the league in yards after catch per reception. (Rashee Rice was second behind SF’s Deebo Samuel in the NFL in the same stat.)

The Lions have two players averaging at least 4.6 yards per carry in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, a reflection of their offensive line as much as their backs. They are the second rated run-blocking team on PFF. And if you couldn’t already tell after the Bills game, defending the run remains a weakness for the Chiefs, even in a much-improved year.

The flip side is what would make the potential matchup a little more friendly to the Chiefs. The Lions defense is fine, but it comes with some exaggerated splits. They are the No. 1-ranked run defense in the league, as rated by FTN’s DVOA statistic. But they are just 16th against the pass. And not only that, they are 27th against the pass since Week 10, per FTN. That’s nearly half the season trending in the wrong direction — while the Chiefs passing game is trending in the right direction. The Lions rank in the bottom third of the league in defending No. 1 receivers, No. 2s and No. 3s. Teams have consistently attacked them deep.

The Chiefs haven’t been consistently effective in the deep passing game, but they turned it on against the Bills last week.