The COVID Summer Wave Is Here and Hospitalizations Are Soaring—How Long It Will Last?
COVID-19 cases are rising over most of the country right now.
Doctors say there are a few reasons why cases are jumping up.
Wearing a mask and staying up to date with your COVID-19 vaccine can help.
It’s weird to think about dealing with COVID-19 during the summer months, but here we are. The U.S. is currently in the middle of a COVID summer wave—with cases showing no signs of slowing down.
Data shared by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show an uptick in a slew of metrics used to detect COVID-19. Right now, emergency department visits from COVID-19 are up nearly 15% from the previous week and hospitalizations linked to the virus are up 25% compared to data from late May. Deaths from the virus are also up nearly 17% in the most recent week.
Cases are increasing in 39 states and aren’t going down anywhere in the country, CDC data show. While infectious disease experts aren’t shocked that this is happening, they agree that there are a few things to keep in mind this summer to stay safe. Here’s the deal with the COVID summer wave, plus why it’s happening now and how long it’s expected to last.
Why is the COVID summer wave happening now?
There are a few different reasons why COVID-19 cases are surging right now. One is that the virus has changed. “The virus has evolved to evade some of the immunity that individuals in the population have,” says Amesh A. Adalja, M.D., senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
That includes the so-called FLiRT variants—KP.2, KP.3, and KP.1.1—that currently make up the majority of COVID-19 cases in the country.
Not only that, population immunity has waned over time, says Thomas Russo, M.D., professor and chief of infectious disease at the University at Buffalo in New York. “Most people didn’t get the booster and the shots are imperfect at preventing infections,” he says, noting that the vaccines are still good at lowering the risk of developing severe disease or being hospitalized.
But people are also spending more time indoors in air conditioning because it’s hot outside—and it’s easier to get infected indoors, points out William Schaffner, M.D., an infectious disease specialist and professor at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. “I suspect that it’s congregate indoor activities that are fueling this,” he says.
How long will the COVID summer wave last?
It’s hard to say for sure how long the COVID summer wave will last, but doctors say we could be dealing with this for a while.
“If past summers are a guide, there will be some increase in the summer through August and then it will begin to abate,” Dr. Schaffner says. But he expects that cases will increase again as the weather gets colder.
“We have a two-humped season—there’s a slight summer increase and then a more prominent one that occurs during the winter,” he says. But Dr. Russo expects that things will get worse before they get better. “We can assume that we’re on the upward curve and probably will be for the next four to eight weeks,” he says.
How to stay safe during the COVID summer wave
All of the COVID-19 prevention strategies that have been effective in the past still work during the summer wave, Dr. Russo says. That means masking up in crowded indoor settings and trying to avoid people who are sick.
If you’re severely immunocompromised, Dr. Adalja recommends talking to your doctor about Pemgarda, a new monoclonal antibody that can help lower the risk you’ll get sick in the first place.
Another thing you can do is get up to date on your COVID-19 vaccinations. “We still have a vaccine available,” Dr. Schaffner says. “You can get it now and again in the fall when it’s updated.”
While you’re at it, be on the lookout for symptoms of the virus, including having a fever, cough, fatigue, muscle or body aches, sore throat, and congestion. If you happen to develop them, Dr. Russo recommends testing yourself for COVID-19 (it may be time to stock up on at-home COVID-19 tests). If it’s positive and you’re in a high-risk category for severe infection, contact your doctor about getting on an anti-viral medication (like Paxlovid) to lower the risk you’ll have a serious illness.
Overall, doctors stress the importance of being aware that COVID-19 is still circulating in the summer. “COVID-19 is still out there. It hasn’t gone away,” Dr. Russo says. You can stock up on the best KN95 and N95 masks, wash your hands, and stay away from crowded indoor activities if you’re concerned.
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