While Elmo Software Limited (ASX:ELO) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 11% in the last quarter. But that doesn't undermine the rather lovely longer-term return, if you measure over the last three years. In three years the stock price has launched 172% higher: a great result. It's not uncommon to see a share price retrace a bit, after a big gain. The thing to consider is whether the underlying business is doing well enough to support the current price.
Elmo Software wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.
Elmo Software's revenue trended up 35% each year over three years. That's much better than most loss-making companies. Meanwhile, the share price performance has been pretty solid at 40% compound over three years. But it does seem like the market is paying attention to strong revenue growth. That's not to say we think the share price is too high. In fact, it might be worth keeping an eye on this one.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.
A Different Perspective
Elmo Software shareholders are down 7.7% for the year, falling short of the market return. Meanwhile, the broader market slid about 4.6%, likely weighing on the stock. Fortunately the longer term story is brighter, with total returns averaging about 40% per year over three years. The recent sell-off could be an opportunity if the business remains sound, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long-term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Elmo Software is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
We will like Elmo Software better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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