Drought is officially declared across North Carolina, while a heat wave lingers

North Carolina has officially entered a flash drought, with more than half of the state classified as in moderate drought, according to the N.C. Drought Management Advisory Council.

Parts of 99 of North Carolina’s 100 counties are either in moderate drought or are abnormally dry, according to the council. The council is made up of experts from a variety of fields, including agriculture, climate and water, among others.

Just two weeks ago, only 4.5% of the state was classified as abnormally dry. Since then, a heat dome has set in, spiking temperatures and preventing any significant rainfall.

“The lack of rainfall has been made worse by the warm weather and low humidity. We have already seen impacts to stream flows and reservoirs. The late spring and early summer are critical in the growing season, and impacts to agriculture have already been seen,” Klaus Albertin, the council’s chairman, said in a statement.

This update marks only the second time since 2000 that more than half of North Carolina has seen drought classifications worsen, according to the N.C. Department of Environmental Quality.

Snapping a drought

The immediate forecast offers a chance of thunderstorms for the Triangle over the coming days, with the National Weather Service saying storms are likely on Sunday.

Storms likely won’t be enough to snap the dry conditions that have set in, though, said Chip Konrad, a UNC-Chapel Hill professor and director of the Southeast Regional Climate Center. In North Carolina, Konrad noted, pop-up afternoon thunderstorms tend to drop heavy rains on a relatively small area.

“Even if we get some showers or thunder showers they’re not going to provide a big relief. You need a bigger system, you need a lot of rain and the pattern that’s forecasted for the next couple of weeks just doesn’t support that,” Konrad said.

NWS forecasters are predicting that Monday will likely snap an 18-day stretch where the high temperature was above 90 degrees.

“Those hot temperatures plus the lack of rain are accelerating evaporation and stressing the plants and the people and our water resources a bit more,” said Kathie Dello, North Carolina’s state climatologist.

Corn has seen significant impacts, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture reporting that 55% of the state’s corn is in poor or very poor conditions and that losses are likely unavoidable.

Dry conditions are beginning to impact water resources across the state, with some utilities asking their customers to voluntarily cut back on water usage.

Johnston County, for example, has a year-round conservation policy that alternates when customers are supposed to use irrigation systems or sprinklers. But with dry conditions causing water use to spike, the county is asking customers to limit all non-essential water use.

Streams and rivers running nearly dry

North Carolina, particularly the eastern part of the state, has been dry for about a year, Curtis Weaver, the assistant director for data with the U.S. Geological Survey’s South Atlantic Water Science Center.

There have been rainy stretches, including what the State Climate Office reported was the state’s 28th-wettest spring since 1895. But the rainy conditions were not persistent enough to sufficiently recharge groundwater and streams across the state, Weaver said.

“The rains were good for the moment, but they’re not good for the long term. It’s like medicine that you take and it helps you feel better today, but it doesn’t solve your long-term illness,” Weaver said.

A map of USGS stream gages in North Carolina is spotted with orange and red, indicating that low amounts of water are running through North Carolina’s streams. Eastern North Carolina, in particular, is experiencing low stream flows with the 7-day average stream flow of the Tar River at Tarboro running at 8% of average for June 27 and the Waccamaw River at Freeland running at 2.35% of average.

In Goldsboro, the Neuse River’s 2.85-foot depth is much closer to the record-low 2.62 feet than the average 4.86 feet.

“We need a good soaking event,” Dello said.

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