Election expert says Sacramento’s most liberal council member has lost, runoff won’t happen

Sacramento City Council’s most liberal member will not get a second term, according to one of California’s top election experts.

Councilwoman Katie Valenzuela did not secure enough votes in Tuesday’s early returns to have a shot at forcing a November runoff against her challenger, said Paul Mitchell, vice president of bipartisan voting data firm Political Data Inc.

“It just becomes harder and harder to catch up when you have that kind of deficit,” Mitchell said. “I don’t think there’s a possibility she would be able to catch up.”

If that’s true, although there are more votes left to count, Phil Pluckebaum has won a seat on the council.

“I’m in no hurry to declare victory,” Pluckebaum, a former Planning and Design Commissioner, said Wednesday. “Let’s let the process play out. But I’m grateful and humbled by the support.”

In city races, if a candidate gets over 50.01% in the primary, that person wins outright, avoiding a November runoff. Pluckebaum has 57% in Tuesday’s early returns, while Valenzuela has 38%.

Valenzuela, who is out of the office until Tuesday, did not immediately respond to a call seeking comment.

Her removal would represent a significant change in the politics of the council. It would be good news for the more moderate sector of the council — members Lisa Kaplan, Rick Jennings, and Eric Guerra, who Mitchell said won re-election Tuesday. If Steve Hansen or Richard Pan are elected mayor in November, the moderate block would be powerful.

That would mean the council would likely keep police funding at its current level or increase it, maintain or reduce the current cap on allowed annual rent increases, and hold steady or reduce fees charged to developers who don’t build a certain number of affordable units.

The city’s progressive sector, led by Valenzuela and Councilwoman Mai Vang, was gearing up to take action on those issues. They were hoping Flojaune Cofer won the mayor’s race and needed Valenzuela’s re-election to have the political power to affect change. Cofer and the three other mayoral candidates — Pan, Hansen and Kevin McCarty — all have an equal shot of making it to the November runoff, Mitchell said.

It was the first election for the district since the once-a-decade redistricting, which removed Land Park and added East Sacramento. Valenzuela won nearly all the midtown, downtown precincts, while Pluckebaum won all the East Sacramento and River Park ones.

Despite that, Pluckebaum said if he wins he will work to represent the entire district equally.

“I took a call this morning from someone in midtown,” Pluckebaum, a River Park homeowner, said. “If I get this job, it’s going to be to represent the diversity of this district. All 65,000 people with all their views.”

Different views on police budget

On police, the two candidates have different views.

Valenzuela may have been hurt by a negative mailer funded by the California Apartment Association that claimed she wanted to defund the police. Valenzuela last year voted to shift $6 million from the $228 million police budget and redirect it toward expanding non-police response to nonviolent homeless calls, which did not pass. But this year amid the deficit, Valenzuela said she was unsure if she would again attempt to reduce police funding.

Pluckebaum said he wants to fill the roughly 100 police officer vacancies, which would add to the police budget.

The California Apartment Association may have targeted Valenzuela with the mailer partly because she has said she wants to lower the amount, currently 10%, that landlords are allowed to raise rent each year. Pluckebaum has said he wants to leave it at 10%.

Pluckebaum did agree with Valenzuela on one important thing — the city needs to open more homeless shelters, despite a looming $66 million budget deficit. However, he said they should not be in parks. Valenzuela had opened a Safe Ground shelter in Miller Park, which is now closed. He suggested the city explore using the building at K and 9th streets the city bought as part of a $26 million settlement to developer Paul Petrovich.

In addition to homelessness, Pluckebaum will also work on the smaller city issues, such as the crosswalk issue at Folsom Boulevard and 54th Street, and the parking issue at 20th and J streets.

Pluckebaum received campaign donations from the Sacramento Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce, the California Apartment Association, and the Sacramento Police Officers Association. Valenzuela received donations from the Sacramento Central Labor Council and Sacramento Area Firefighters Association.

In the race to replace indicted former Councilman Sean Loloee, Roger Dickinson won 44% of the vote, which will not be enough to avoid a runoff, Mitchell said. Dickinson will face business-backed realtor Stephen Walton, who won 14% of the vote, or former Grant High School vice principal Kim Davie, who won 12%. That means the city will appoint someone to fill the vacant seat until December.

The county will release the next batch of results Friday afternoon.

The four-year term starts Dec. 10.