With an eye on 2028, California Democrats bet big on abortion in 2024

SACRAMENTO, Calif. - Democrats are dusting off the same playbook that scored the party mid-term wins across the country by seizing on abortion rights, and California's most high-profile political figures are leading the campaign — both at home and in a half-dozen other states.

California's Gov. Gavin Newsom and Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, along with Vice President and former California Sen. Kamala Harris, are doubling down on abortion rights, even as California remains one of the most pro-choice states in the country. It reflects a nationwide approach by the party to capitalize on what they say is an inevitable future of draconian reproductive rights rollbacks should Republicans return to the White House. It's a fear that delivered Democrats crucial wins in 2022, and they're betting it remains a powerful force for voter turnout even in deep-blue California where abortion is not on the ballot.

As the two-year anniversary of the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade approaches, mobilization around abortion and reproductive rights has become an integral plank so enmeshed in the Democratic platform that California's two most powerful state leaders are betting it will be a bulwark against a second Trump term, and the key to flipping several GOP-held California districts.

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"I believe that if Trump were to win, he will support and advance a nationwide abortion ban. And that will impact California more than anyone else because we are the most populous state," Kounalakis said. "Everywhere I go people are asking me, what can we do? What can we do?"

While Newsom and Kounalakis brandish themselves as champions of abortion rights and continue to build the “sanctuary state” credo in California, their efforts are also raising their respective profiles: Kounalakis is running to take over the governor's mansion in 2027, while Newsom is laying the groundwork for a 2028 presidential bid.

Kounalakis unveiled a new super PAC, Californians for Choice, in late-May, while Newsom continues to run ads criticizing Republican abortion restrictions in GOP strongholds like Texas and Tennessee. That same week the governor signed a law created in direct response to neighboring Arizona's now overturned "1864" total abortion ban, making it easier for Arizona health providers to provide abortions for their patients in California.

All the while Harris continues her abortion rights campaign marathon, delivering speeches, touring reproductive health clinics and lambasting Republican policies across the country.

In a video statement released Wednesday, Newsom criticized Senate Republicans after voting to block the Right to Contraception Act, which would have established federal protections for Americans' right to access to birth control. All of California's 11 sitting Republican representatives voted against the bill when it was in the House, including those running for reelection in swing districts that went for Biden in 2020.

Public opinion on abortion in California

Overall, an estimated 69% of Californians believe abortion should be legal, according to a joint 2023 opinion survey conducted in part by Stanford University. Roughly the same percentage of Californians would either make it easier for residents to obtain an abortion (29%) or leave current law permitting abortion for any reason through 24 weeks as is (32%).

As is the case in much of the country, those identifying as Republican lean toward making it harder to access abortion or toward creating more limitations, whereas Democrats lean toward the opposite. About 54% of California Democrats believe abortion should always be legal with no restrictions. Among Republicans, 47% believe abortion should either always be illegal or should be legal only in special circumstances, such as when the mother's life is at risk.

Though Californians' opinions on abortion rights make any bans or limitations extremely unlikely, Newsom and his administration have been aggressive in further protecting access for Californians in the wake of the fall of Roe v. Wade.

In November 2022, Californians overwhelmingly approved Proposition 1, which explicitly adds abortion and contraception rights to the state constitution. And in 2022 and 2023, the state enacted a bevy of interstate shield laws to protect patients, providers and others from out-of-state legal actions to penalize those seeking, providing or helping others access abortion.

"California is a leader, and not just among states in the country in pursuing proactive legislation, but in protecting reproductive freedom," said Caroline Robertson of one of the nation's largest abortion rights advocacy groups, Reproductive Freedom for All. "They've been doing that for years. But since Roe, they have really led the charge."

The legislation is in response to a rapidly changing landscape of reproductive and abortion care access across the country since 2022. In the first 100 days post-Roe, 66 clinics shuttered in 15 states, according to recent research from the Guttmacher Institute, with no abortion-providing facilities operating in the 14 states enforcing total abortion bans. The proportion of individuals traveling to other states to obtain abortion care has doubled in recent years, with nearly one in five crossing state lines to receive care in the first half of 2023. Experts and advocates expect these trends to continue.

Abortion rights a key election issue

During the 2022 midterms, abortion was top of mind for voters. Roe was overturned less than six months prior to the elections, and in California, voters overwhelmingly voted to enshrine the right to reproductive care in the state Constitution.

This time around Democrats are hoping it again will mobilize voters, including independents and otherwise unenthusiastic Democrats.

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Kounalakis' PAC joins a handful of others spending big in the state. Planned Parenthood of California's independent funding arm launched a multimillion-dollar campaign in May, and Newsom's Campaign for Democracy PAC has already spent over $3 million this election cycle. The Democratic House Majority PAC announced a $100 million campaign fund May 29 focused on abortion rights, targeting Republicans in several swing districts.

They are all zeroing in on the same handful of hyper-competitive California districts held by GOP representatives in the Central Valley and Southern California. The targets: Reps. David Valadao, R-Hanford, and John Duarte, R-Modesto, in the Central Valley; Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita; and Ken Calvert, representing Riverside County from Corona to Palm Desert.

"The districts we're targeting are ones that we know are going to be close," Kounalakis said. "That's why it's get-out-the-vote effort, because we will win if pro-choice voters know that choice is on the ballot."

Kounalakis' PAC is recruiting a statewide volunteer force to make calls and knock on doors in these key districts. Like Newsom, the campaign is not stopping at the Golden State's borders, hoping to extend the volunteer force engaged in voter turnout efforts into neighboring Nevada and Arizona.

Democrats bank on abortion rights in swing districts

Despite California's Democratic super-majority and reputation as a pro-choice haven, pockets of voters in purple and agricultural areas could present challenges to the party's strategy.

In cities as diverse as liberal West Hollywood and conservative Visalia and Fontana, opposition to proposed clinics providing abortion care have stalled construction, entangled in local pushback. In one such case, Planned Parenthood is suing the city of Fontana in San Bernardino County, claiming local government enacted a construction moratorium to block the clinic from moving forward.

More: What is the 'Right to Contraception Act'? A look at how the bill failed and what was in it

But more pressing for November are the swing districts where Democratic leaders in and outside the state are banking millions in their abortion-rights strategy. In several of these districts, namely Kings, Kern and Tulare counties, residents voted against the 2022 proposition to enshrine abortion rights in the California Constitution. Though the measure did not pass in these districts by narrow margins, it serves as a warning sign for Democrats confident abortion rights will secure victory over Republicans' laser-like focus on immigration and the economy.

GOP Rep. Mike Garcia, whose 27th Congressional District is one of the most fought-over this election cycle, insists Democrats' messaging won't play well, echoing some other conservative lawmakers who allege Democrats' fear of a national abortion ban is fear-mongering.

“I’ve been very clear that I have no intentions of supporting a national ban," Garcia said in a May 31 interview with PunchBowl News. "So it’s a phantom ghost that they’re trying to create to compel people to go vote.”

Yet for Democrats across the state, from party leaders to candidates, campaigning on abortion rights is seen as a battle-tested approach critical to securing a second Biden term and ousting conservative lawmakers from Congress.

"That's why it's a get-out-the-vote effort," Kounalakis said. "Because we will win if pro-choice voters know that choices on the ballot."

Kathryn Palmer is an elections fellow for USA TODAY. Reach her at kapalmer@gannett.com and follow her on X @KathrynPlmr.

This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: California Democrats bet big on abortion in 2024 election