First-round playoff preview: What will it take for the Heat to push the Bucks in the series?

The Miami Heat enters the playoffs as a big underdog.

That’s because the Heat’s first-round opponent as the Eastern Conference’s eighth seed is the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, which finished the regular season with the NBA’s top record at 58-24. Game 1 of the series is Sunday at 5:30 p.m. at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee (Bally Sports Sun and TNT).

“This is our job,” Heat center Bam Adebayo said. “These are the moments that a lot of guys dream of, a lot of guys want to be in the playoffs who don’t get that luxury. That’s earned. You don’t take that for granted.”

What does the schedule for the Heat’s first-round playoff series against the Bucks look like?

The Bucks also enter the series with a huge rest advantage, as they’ve been off for a week since closing the regular season this past Sunday. Meanwhile, the Heat needs to begin the first round in Milwaukee less than 48 hours after clinching a playoff spot with a win over the Chicago Bulls on Friday night in Miami.

“Honestly, they’re well rested,” Heat guard Kyle Lowry said of the Bucks. “They got an MVP over there [in Giannis Antetokounmpo], All-NBA in Jrue Holiday, they got possibly one of the best defenders in Brook Lopez, they got a great crowd. For us, we got to go out there and be focused on what we can do and go play basketball.”

After qualifying for the playoffs through the play-in tournament, the Heat is not only looking to become the fifth No. 8 seed in NBA history to eliminate a No. 1 seed but also to become the first play-in team to win a first-round series. Play-in teams are 0-8 in first-round playoff series during the first two seasons of the tournament’s existence.

“Ultimately, we have a bigger purpose that we’re trying to do and we understand who’s in front of us,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “We have great competitors in the locker room, though, and we’re just grateful that we have this opportunity to line up against them.”

Here are five questions surrounding the matchup, with answers on what to expect in the Heat-Bucks series:

The Heat and Bucks tied their regular-season series 2-2. What does that mean for this first-round matchup?

Not much. It’s too small of a sample size and both of Miami’s wins over Milwaukee include a big asterisk because Bucks stars Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton missed those two games with injuries.

All four of the Heat’s games against the Bucks this season came during a six-week stretch that began in mid-January and ended in late February.

The first two games of their regular-season series were played in Miami within a two-day span. The Heat won the first 108-102 on Jan. 12 and also won the second 111-95 on Jan. 14.

Both teams were short-handed in those two contests. The Bucks missed Antetokounmpo, Middleton, Joe Ingles and Grayson Allen in the first matchup and were without Antetokounmpo, Middleton in the second matchup. The Heat did not have Lowry, Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson in the first game and played without Tyler Herro, Lowry and Robinson in the second game.

So, it’s hard to take a lot from Miami’s pair of home wins over Milwaukee in January other than the fact that Heat guard Gabe Vincent was on fire with a total of 55 points on 10-of-19 (52.6 percent) shooting from three-point range in those two games and Adebayo also was a force with a total of 44 points on 20-of-38 (52.6 percent) shooting from the field and 25 rebounds in those two games.

With healthier rosters for the final two games of the Heat-Bucks season series, the Bucks won both games in Milwaukee by a combined margin of 37 points. The Bucks defeated the Heat 123-115 on Feb. 4 and 128-99 on Feb. 24 in the first game after the All-Star break.

The Bucks cruised past the Heat by 29 points on Feb. 24 despite Antetokounmpo leaving the game early with a knee injury after playing just six minutes. Milwaukee shot 19 of 46 (41.3 percent) from three-point range in that one.

What’s the injury situation for both teams entering the series?

The Heat appears to be relatively healthy. The only Heat player ruled out of Game 1 is rookie forward Nikola Jovic (back spasms), who has not been a regular in the rotation this season.

But Heat point guards Gabe Vincent and Lowry are dealing with injuries.

Vincent played in Friday’s win despite being listed as questionable with a hip injury. He went scoreless in 27 minutes and only took two shots.

Lowry scored five points in 20 minutes off the Heat’s bench Friday, but left the game with 9:51 to play after tweaking his troublesome left knee and did not return. After Friday’s win, Lowry said he expects to play on Sunday.

Vincent and Lowry are both listed as questionable for Game 1 with their respective injuries.

The Bucks are dealing with their own injury issues.

Middleton has missed chunks of the season because of a right knee issue, including the final two games of the regular season. He was a full participant in Thursday’s practice ahead of the playoffs.

Bucks guards Pat Connaughton and Allen have been limited in practice this week as they both recover from sprained right ankles.

But the Bucks’ injury report for Game 1 was empty.

The Bucks closed the regular season with the NBA’s best record behind one of the league’s top defenses. How does the Heat match up?

Besides being led by arguably the NBA’s best player in Antetokounmpo, the Bucks are also led by their elite defense. Milwaukee finished the regular season with the league’s fourth-best defensive rating.

With All-NBA caliber defenders like center Brook Lopez, guard Jrue Holiday and Antetokounmpo anchoring the unit, the Bucks play a style of defense that forces teams into a lot of inefficient midrange shots.

After allowing a high number of three-point attempts a few seasons ago, the Bucks changed some aspects of their defensive philosophy to limit three-point opportunities. Milwaukee’s opponents took just 33.7 percent of their shots from three-point range (fifth-lowest percentage in the NBA) and 28.7 percent of their shots at the rim (third-lowest percentage in the NBA) in the regular season, according to Cleaning the Glass.

That left opponents attempting 37.7 percent of their shots from midrange, which is the second-highest percentage in the league. And 12.8 percent of those shots are considered long midrange shots, which is the highest percentage in the NBA for what’s considered the least efficient shot in the sport.

The Bucks don’t force many turnovers (second-lowest opponent turnover rate in the NBA) but they also don’t foul much (second-lowest opponent free-throw rate in the NBA). The Bucks’ length, with the 7-1 Lopez and 7-0 Antetokounmpo hovering around the rim, will be a problem the Heat needs to solve.

It’s hard to win in the NBA when both the rim and three-point line are cut off.

How can the Heat pull off the upset and win this series over the Bucks?

The formula is simple, but will be hard to execute: Hit a high percentage of midrange shots, make contested threes, limit turnovers and find a way to slow Antetokounmpo and the Bucks’ three-point shooters.

While more teams have crowded Adebayo with extra defenders recently to take away his in-the-paint jumper, that midrange look may be there consistently for him in this series against Lopez’s drop coverage. Adebayo, who shot 48.9 percent on non-rim paint shots in the regular season, made 13 of 25 (52 percent) of those shots in the Heat’s two wins over the Bucks this season.

Herro has also been effective against drop coverage during his NBA career and will need to have some big scoring games in this series for the Heat to have a chance.

As for the Heat’s leading scorer, the Bucks are expected use Holiday on Jimmy Butler most of the time but could also throw Antetokounmpo’s length at him. Butler totaled 31 points on 12-of-24 shooting from the field with Holiday guarding him this regular season.

The Heat had success in slowing Antetokounmpo in past seasons by walling off the paint with a swarm of defenders, but the Heat’s personnel is different this season. If the Heat continues to start Max Strus at forward, who will take on the Antetokounmpo challenge? Adebayo and Butler are the two best options in the starting group and Caleb Martin is another option off the bench.

But even if the Heat sends help and is able to make things tough on Antetokounmpo, leaving the Bucks’ three-point shooters open is dangerous. Milwaukee attempted the fourth-most three-point attempts per game and made threes at the 10th-best rate (36.8 percent) in the regular season.

What should be the Heat’s biggest concern against the Bucks?

Offense. Not only do the Bucks feature one of the NBA’s best defenses, but the Heat enters the playoffs with one of the league’s worst offenses.

The Heat finished the regular season with the NBA’s sixth-worst offensive rating and eighth-worst half-court offense. The Bucks’ half-court defense was ranked third-best in the regular season.

Generating efficient half-court offense consistently will be tough against the Bucks, but it will be important to take some of the pressure off the Heat’s defense.

The Heat is 7-16 this season when finishing with a half-court offensive rating of worse than 90 points per 100 plays. Meanwhile, Miami is 21-6 when finishing with a half-court offensive rating of better than 100 points per 100 plays.