The five most pivotal games on the 2024 Kentucky football schedule

Is it possible there is more optimism for Kentucky’s 2024 football prospects among national pundits than within the commonwealth?

Earlier this month, ESPN.com’s Mark Schlabach ranked UK No. 23 in the Worldwide Leader’s Way-Too-Early college football Top 25 rankings. This even though the Wildcats are scheduled to play in the coming season against the teams ranked No. 1 (Georgia), No. 4 (Texas), No. 6 (Mississippi), No. 16 (Tennessee) and No. 21 (Louisville) in the same ESPN rankings.

Here in Kentucky, perhaps Wildcats backers are deflated by the back-to-back 7-6 seasons UK has produced when more was expected — and the too-often-sloppy play that led to those disappointing campaigns.

Maybe UK fans are worried by the “new and improved SEC” that begins in 2024 with the arrivals of Oklahoma and Texas and the end of the East and West Divisions.

Perhaps there is a Big Blue Nation “hangover” left from UK’s 38-35 come-from-ahead loss to Clemson in the Gator Bowl in the most recent time we saw Mark Stoops and troops in action.

Whatever the explanation, I do not sense within our state the same level of anticipation for the 2024 Kentucky football season that existed for the 2022 and 2023 UK seasons.

For Stoops and UK to defy local skepticism and produce a more successful season than the past two against what is considered a more difficult schedule, here are the five pivotal games whose outcomes will likely determine the Wildcats’ fate in 2024:

5. At Tennessee, Nov. 2, in Knoxville. Apparently, this year’s meeting between border rivals UK and UT will be the final one for the longtime antagonists as annual opponents. On his Oct. 23 radio show, Mark Stoops was asked about the future of the Kentucky-Tennessee series in light of SEC schedule alterations resulting from league expansion and the dissolution of divisions.

At the 27:28 mark of his show (which is still available on the UK Athletics app) Stoops said that “regardless of whether (the future SEC schedule format) is nine or eight (games) or whatever, we will not play (Tennessee) every year.”

In a rivalry thoroughly dominated by the Rocky Toppers (UT is 36-3 vs. UK since 1985), it would electrify the BBN if Kentucky could go out of the annual rivalry with a rare squeezing of the Big Orange.

4. Auburn, Oct. 26, at Kroger Field. A big reason UK has disappointed its fans in each of the past two seasons is because the Wildcats have not protected Kroger Field against Southeastern Conference foes.

UK has gone 1-3 in league home games in each of 2022 and 2023. To have any chance of going above seven wins in 2024, Kentucky probably needs to go at least 3-1 in SEC home games.

Given that likely national-championship favorite Georgia is one of UK’s SEC home games in 2024, that makes winning the other three SEC contests at Kroger Field vital.

Auburn, 6-7 last season in Hugh Freeze’s debut as head coach, will be expecting to make a big jump in year two of its head coaching regime.

For Kentucky to break through vs. the Tigers, it will have to defy history. Auburn has beaten UK in 18 of the past 19 meetings. Kentucky has not beaten the Tigers in Lexington since 1966.

3. At Florida, Oct. 19, in Gainesville. UK will take a three-game winning streak over the Gators into Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

In what shapes up as a crucial season for third-year Florida head man Billy Napier (11-14 in two seasons), the Gators face a brutal schedule that includes three non-league games vs. in-state power conference foes — Miami (ACC), Central Florida (Big 12) and Florida State (ACC).

Successes against Florida and Louisville have been the redemptive factors of the past two UK seasons. To get above seven wins in 2024, UK probably needs to extend its recent mastery of UF to four in a row.

2. Louisville, Nov. 30, at Kroger Field. Kentucky’s 38-31 upset of then-No. 9 Louisville in last year’s regular season finale took some shine off of Jeff Brohm’s otherwise stellar debut season (10-4) as head man at his alma mater.

A coach who “feels” the Governor’s Cup rivalry down to his toes, Brohm will redouble his efforts to break through and end UK’s five-game win streak in the series. If Kentucky can back up last season’s win with another defeat of a Brohm-coached U of L, the Wildcats will have thoroughly demoralized the Cardinals fan base.

1. South Carolina, Sept. 7, at Kroger Field. Kentucky’s mistake-filled performance in a 17-14 loss to an eminently mediocre Gamecocks team last season in the Wildcats’ final road game was one of the most disappointing UK showings of the Mark Stoops coaching era.

With the Kentucky-South Carolina game moving to Week 2 in 2024, the game assumes major implications in “setting the tone” for the UK season.

Simply put, South Carolina is a game the Cats have to win.

2024 Kentucky football schedule

Home games in all capital letters. Kickoff times and broadcast networks to be announced later.

Aug. 31: SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

Sept. 7: SOUTH CAROLINA

Sept. 14: GEORGIA

Sept. 21: OHIO

Sept. 28: At Ole Miss

Oct. 5: Open date

Oct. 12: VANDERBILT

Oct. 19: At Florida

Oct. 26: AUBURN

Nov. 2: At Tennessee

Nov. 9: Open date

Nov. 16: MURRAY STATE

Nov. 23: At Texas

Nov. 30: LOUISVILLE

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