Greatview Aseptic Packaging Company Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
Greatview Aseptic Packaging Company Limited (HKG:468) came out with its annual results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasts think of the company following this report. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of CN¥2.7b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 12% to hit CN¥0.25 per share. The analyst typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analyst has changed their mind on Greatview Aseptic Packaging after the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for Greatview Aseptic Packaging
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Greatview Aseptic Packaging from sole analyst is for revenues of CN¥2.94b in 2020 which, if met, would be a meaningful 8.6% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 5.4% to CN¥0.24 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analyst had been modelling revenues of CN¥2.95b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.30 in 2020. The analyst seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.
The average price target fell 14% to CN¥4.02, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Greatview Aseptic Packaging's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 8.6% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.3%p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Greatview Aseptic Packaging is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analyst downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analyst seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Greatview Aseptic Packaging's future valuation.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2022, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Greatview Aseptic Packaging that you need to be mindful of.
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