Heat defense has gone from mediocre to elite in two months: ‘That’s our ticket to winning’

The Miami Heat’s defense this season has been elite.

That could not be said two months ago when the Heat dropped its seventh straight game to fall to 24-23 on Jan. 29. The Heat held the NBA’s 13th-ranked defensive rating then, allowing 114.3 points per 100 possessions.

But Heat’s defense has gone from mediocre to elite in two months, entering Wednesday in sole possession of the NBA’s fifth-best defensive rating for the season (allowing 111.6 points per 100 possessions) after Tuesday night’s 109-99 grind-it-out victory over the New York Knicks at Kaseya Center. The Heat, which has won three straight games, made this big jump in a short amount of time by posting the league’s top defensive rating (allowing 107.1 points per 100 possessions) since Feb. 1 to go 18-10 after that seven-game skid in January.

“It’s been a goal all season to get to top five and stay top five,” Heat forward Caleb Martin said when told after Tuesday’s win that the defense has cracked the top five. “So it’s good that it’s starting to come around at the right time. I think that we always understand when it really comes down to it, that’s our ticket to winning the game, whether that’s in the playoffs or getting in a position to where we don’t have to worry about the play-in.”

That’s the Heat’s mission with just seven games left in its regular season: avoid the NBA’s play-in tournament, which features the seventh-through-10th-place teams competing for the final two playoff seeds in each conference. The seventh-place Heat (42-33) entered Wednesday 1.5 games ahead of the eighth-place Philadelphia 76ers (41-35) and just a half-game behind the sixth-place Indiana Pacers (43-33) in the Eastern Conference standings.

That makes the Heat’s next game especially important, when it hosts the 76ers on Thursday (7:30 p.m., Bally Sports Sun) in a battle of two East teams trying to avoid the play-in tourney. All-Star center Joel Embiid, who missed 29 straight games following left meniscus surgery, is expected to be available for the 76ers after making his return in Tuesday’s win over the Oklahoma City Thunder.

A Heat win would not only extend its lead over the 76ers in the East standings, but it would also clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker over the 76ers. However, a loss would even the four-game regular-season series between the two teams at 2-2 and the tiebreaker would then likely come down to conference record.

“It’s going to be a great game,” Heat center Bam Adebayo said. “The atmosphere is going to be great. We’re going to go out there, we’re going to play basketball and we’ll see where the chips fall.”

What happens for Miami on the defensive end will probably again be a major factor in determining the outcome of Thursday’s meaningful game, as the Heat is 13-1 this season when holding its opponent under 100 points. Miami is 29-32 when its opponent scores 100 or more points.

The Heat is also 26-8 this season when posting a defensive rating of fewer than 109 points allowed per 100 possessions and just 16-25 when its defensive rating is more than 109 points allowed per 100 possessions.

“That’s the way we’re going to have to win,” Martin said, referring to the Heat’s defense. “I think we’re understanding that more.”

How has the Heat turned what was a middling defense a few months ago into an elite one? Having Adebayo, a perennial NBA Defensive Player of the Year candidate, anchoring everything the Heat does on that end of the court helps.

With Adebayo on the court this season, the Heat has allowed just 109 points per 100 possessions for a defensive rating that would rank second-best in the NBA among teams. He also holds a team-best defensive estimated plus/minus of +2.8, which is in the NBA’s 98th percentile (top two percent).

Then there’s Heat coach Erik Spoelstra, who usually finds a way to coach his way to a top-10 defense nearly every season regardless of the personnel. Spoelstra is known for deploying a multitude of schemes to keep opposing offenses off balance, and he has turned to a press-zone defense often in recent weeks.

In Tuesday’s win over the Knicks, Spoelstra went with a defensive lineup of Terry Rozier, Martin, Jimmy Butler, Haywood Highsmith and Bam Adebayo to close the game. This group played the final 3:09 of the fourth quarter together, limiting the Knicks to just five points during that time to seal the win.

“There’s not a ton of advantage there with any guy you’re trying to go at,” Martin said of that lineup. “Just knowing who you have behind you and who’s on the back side, a lot of switchable guys, it’s definitely tough to find a matchup that you want. You just kind of got to pick your poison, especially when we’re locked in together. And the more reps we get together, it’s just going to continue to get better.”

But the Heat’s offense continues to be an issue that will need to improve to make a deep playoff run possible. While the Heat’s defense entered Wednesday as a top-five unit, it holds the NBA’s 21st-ranked offensive rating this season.

In Tuesday’s win over the Knicks, the Heat’s offense was carried by Rozier’s incredible shot-making. He scored a game-high 34 points on 8-of-11 shooting from three-point range.

Relying on Rozier to make eight threes every game is not sustainable. But relying on a defense that has established itself as one of the NBA’s best has proven to be an effective formula for the Heat over the years.

“That’s just our DNA,” Rozier said. “We’re trying to emphasize no matter if the ball is going in or not, we got to get stops on the other end.”

The Heat is on its way to finishing with a top-10 defensive rating for the eighth time in the last nine regular seasons.

But this would mark just the fourth time since 2010 that the Heat closes a regular season with a top-five defense. The Heat made deep playoff runs the previous three times — losing in the Eastern Conference finals in 2022 (fourth-best defensive rating in 2021-22), winning the NBA Finals in 2012 (fourth-best defensive rating in 2011-12) and losing in the NBA Finals in 2011 (fifth-best defensive rating in 2010-11).

“When you get stops, it creates easier points on offense,” Rozier said. “You can get out and run and stuff like that. We understand that. We just got to take care of our defense and make sure we’re making it tough on our opponents.”