Hialeah was a tie in ’16. Can Trump do better vs Biden? Six Miami-Dade cities to watch

Joe Biden can dream of having as good a night in Hialeah as Hillary Clinton enjoyed four years ago.

Clinton lost Florida but in Hialeah, the Democratic nominee managed to hold Donald Trump to a virtual tie in a city at the heart of Miami-Dade County’s Cuban-American population, a vast improvement over the nine-point loss Barack Obama suffered in Hialeah four years earlier.

Despite the tiny margin — 48.8% to 48.7%, according to a Miami Herald analysis of precinct data — Trump eked out a narrow win in Florida and an upset victory in the Electoral College. The victor in Florida, Trump overcame a standout showing by Clinton in Miami-Dade, which she won by 30 points and 290,000 votes.

“Miami-Dade and Broward came in higher than we had hoped,” said Craig Smith, a Democratic political consultant now living in Plantation, who was the first to call former President Bill Clinton on Election night with news that Florida was going for Trump. Smith recalled seeing the initial presidential numbers from Miami-Dade and concluding: “Oh, we’ve got some margin to play with.”

Four years later, Smith and strategists from both campaigns expect Trump to find a more welcoming electorate in Miami-Dade, and a chance to moderate Biden’s expected win in the blue-leaning county in numbers big enough to keep Florida in the GOP column once again.

With Florida hinging in part on Trump’s ability to limit the size of Biden’s Miami-Dade win, much of the battle will unfold in cities across the state’s most populous county. Here are six places to watch:

1: Can Biden outperform Clinton in the suburbs? Widening the win in Palmetto Bay would be a start

An October poll by Bendixen & Amandi International found Biden ahead of Trump in Miami-Dade by 20 points, a margin closer to the 24-point win Obama secured in the county in 2012 with Biden on the ticket. Obama won Florida that year, and the Biden strategy hopes to recreate that Sunshine State coalition with a healthy margin in diverse Miami-Dade, and a better showing with white voters in areas Trump dominated in 2016.

Expanding the margin in places like Palmetto Bay could hint at broader Biden strength with white suburban voters. Clinton took 55% of the vote there to Trump’s 41%.

The bayside village of about 25,000 people has one of Miami-Dade’s narrowest gaps between Democratic and Republican registration, with 37% Democratic and 35% Republican. And with 47% of its voters identifying as white and non-Hispanic, Palmetto Bay represents the kind of suburban area that’s key to a Biden Florida strategy that assumes he’ll fall short of Clinton’s numbers in Miami-Dade.

“One of the reasons Biden has a small but stubborn lead in Florida is because he’s improving on Hillary Clinton’s numbers with white voters across the state,” said Fernand Amandi, a partner at the Coconut Grove polling firm.

Will Miami-Dade deflate that advantage? Amandi and other Democrats have been raising alarms about the Republican turnout edge in Miami-Dade’s pre-Election Day period. As of Friday morning, 57% of the county’s Democrats had voted early or by mail, compared to 64% of the county’s Republicans.

2: A Democratic edge with independents? Watch the margins in Doral

Trump’s status as job provider in the city of Doral — before the pandemic, his Trump National golf resort was the municipality’s third-largest employer, behind Carnival Cruise Lines and Univision — didn’t help him much with votes. Clinton took 68% of the vote in Doral in 2016, more than doubling Trump’s 28% share.

Independent voters dominate in the city, where 46% of the electorate has no party affiliation. That’s the highest share among Miami-Dade’s 34 municipalities if you leave out tiny Indian Creek Village and its 60 voters. Precinct data show Clinton faring well with independents. In the 37 precincts where independents make up at least 40% of registered voters, she won 68% of the vote.

If Biden can cross 70% in Doral, that could be a sign he’s out-pacing Clinton with Florida’s independents, a key factor in 2020.

3: In Miami Lakes, a barometer of GOP enthusiasm for Trump’s second term

Hialeah’s more affluent neighbor also has a large Cuban-American population, and it’s Miami-Dade’s most Republican municipality. With 45% of the town’s voters registered as Republicans, Miami Lakes provided Trump a wide margin in 2016 with 55% of votes to Clinton’s 42%.

The numbers show the underlying strength of Republicans in the western suburbs of Miami-Dade. Miami Lakes was founded by the Graham family, which includes former Democratic Gov. Bob Graham. But in fact, Trump’s best precinct in Miami-Dade was the Bob Graham Education Center, where he earned a net 747 votes over Clinton.

Even so, the numbers probably should have been better for the Republican nominee. Of the six Republican county commissioners in office at the time, only Bruno Barreiro campaigned with Trump. The county’s Republican mayor, Carlos Gimenez, announced during his reelection run he was voting for Clinton.

What a difference four years can make. Republican commissioners routinely sign up to greet Trump when Air Force One lands at Miami International Airport, and Gimenez sought and won Trump’s endorsement for his congressional run in Florida’s 26th District.

“There’s real enthusiasm in Miami Lakes,” said Marili Cancio, a lawyer and an adviser to the Latinos for Trump 2020 campaign. “We’re seeing a lot of younger Cuban-Americans. We’ve seen them in caravans. We’ve seen them in flotillas.”

Republican enthusiasm will only get Trump so far: Democrats account for 41% of the county’s 1.5 million voters, and Republicans 27%. Of the 34 cities across Miami-Dade, Democrats outnumber Republicans in 23 of them.

Dario Moreno, a veteran pollster who also teaches at Florida International University’s Cuban Research Institute, said he expects Trump to benefit from turnout efforts by Republican county mayoral candidate Esteban “Steve” Bovo Jr. The Cuban-American county commissioner represents the Hialeah and Miami Lakes area, has touted his support of Trump, and is “mobilizing the same voters that Trump is,” Moreno said.

Bovo, a county commissioner, represents one of the only commission districts that Trump won in 2016. Trump took 51% of the vote in Bovo’s District 13 in the Hialeah area, and Javier Souto’s District 10 in the Westchester area by the same margin.

4: The size of Biden’s Miami Gardens lead will test whether Trump gained with Black voters

Polls show Trump performing better with non-white voters nationwide in 2020 than he did in 2016. That could lead to less of a wipe out for the president in Miami Gardens, the largest city in the Southeast with a majority of Black residents and a Democratic stronghold in Miami-Dade. Trump’s campaign is working to bring down the Democratic margin in a city where Clinton took 91% of the vote in 2016.

“They’re trying to find out what’s there,” said Darnell Roberts, an organizer for Democrats in Miami-Dade. “I’ve seen Blacks for Trump signs sprinkled around Miami Gardens. That’s new.”

Roberts is deputy field director for a well-funded party campaign operation that’s working for Biden and also for Bovo’s Democratic rival in the officially non-partisan county mayoral race, Daniella Levine Cava. Just as Bovo’s canvassing may boost Trump’s numbers in 2016, Roberts said he’s seeing Levine Cava as a local boost for Democrats in the southern part of the county, where she’s a commissioner.

Turnout in Black suburban neighborhoods like Richmond Heights and Perrine will help determine Biden’s Miami-Dade cushion.

“We’re talking about the Democratic ticket from top to bottom,” he said. “It helps.”

5: Did Biden’s Haitian-American strategy work? Watch the spread in North Miami

In a city where over 30% of residents are Haitian-American — by far the largest share in the county — North Miami offers one of the best barometers for whether Biden’s campaign has done enough to court Haitian-American voters. Clinton won 83% of the vote there.

Roberts, the Democratic organizer, said he has seen reports that are “a little concerning” in North Miami, where Creole outreach is vital for the Haitian-American vote. “Sometimes the language barrier does a disservice to the party,” he said.

The Haitian-American vote is a target for the Biden campaign. The former vice president toured Miami’s Little Haiti neighborhood in early October. His running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris, a Jamaican-American and Indian-American from California, appeared on WNMA 1210’s “Caribbean Riddims” radio show shortly after she joined the Democratic ticket in September. Obama held a drive-in Biden rally in North Miami on Oct. 24.

While campaigning in Little Haiti in 2016, Trump promised Haitians he would be their “greatest champion,” trying to capitalize on Haitians’ disappointment in Clinton and her husband, the former president, over their controversial involvement in Haiti after the country’s devastating 2010 earthquake.

But Trump has ended several immigration-related programs that helped Haitians and pushed for an end to Temporary Protected Status, which allows about 50,000 Haitians to work and live legally in the United States. And of course Haiti was one of the countries Trump reportedly referred to as “shithole countries” during a January 2018 meeting.

“I do believe that Biden will get more than 85%” in North Miami, said City Councilman Alix Desulme, who is Haitian-American. “This president has not shown any kindness not only toward Haitians, but toward immigrants.”

Desulme said Republicans have been looking to prevent some Haitian-Americans from voting for Biden by contacting his constituents through calls and WhatsApp blasts, with a focus on cultural issues like abortion. He added that language barriers for Haitian Creole speakers can sometimes make voting a challenge. But he said he and others in the community are working to make North Miami a blowout victory for Biden.

“We know Biden respects the [Haitian] community and stood with the community after the earthquakes in 2010,” Desulme said, referring to Biden’s tenure as vice president. “We are all crossing our fingers and working hard.”

6: Did the “socialist” attack stick? The Biden Hialeah vote may have the answer

Trump has tried to brand Biden a socialist in disguise for pushing a progressive agenda, and Gimenez has tried the same tack with his congressional opponent, freshman Democrat Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

The attacks have become a punchline for Biden, a former senator from Delaware. “Do I look like a radical socialist?” Biden asked a Pittsburgh audience in August. “Really?”

Political consultants in the Miami area predict the Trump socialist slogan will translate to a stronger Miami-Dade showing, and that’s likely to help boost his margin in Hialeah.

“Is calling Biden a socialist effective, especially with older Hispanics?” asked Pedro Diaz, a Miami political consultant with a majority of Democratic clients this year. “Absolutely.”

At least some of the credit for Trump’s improvement in Miami-Dade comes from a foreign policy calibrated to appeal to Cuban-American Republicans, including rolling back Obama’s opening of the Cuban market and a hard-line approach to Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

“I’ll be looking at Hialeah,” said pollster Moreno,who expects Trump to win Hialeah by as much as 20 points. “It will tell us whether this hard-line Latin American policy paid off. If he performs at 55% to 45% [in Hialeah], then he didn’t buy much.”

Every elected official in Hialeah is a registered Republican, although the seats are nonpartisan. Out of Hialeah’s approximately 110,000 registered voters, 40% are Republicans and 26% are Democrats. Another 33% have no party affiliation.

But even with Republicans in the registration lead, pockets of the city lean Democratic.

Clinton dominated in parts of Hialeah, including in some of the city’s northernmost precincts. At the American Senior High School precinct, for example, Clinton took 74% of the vote with about a 450-vote margin.

“I want to believe that Hialeah is Republican country. I hate to say it, but I don’t think that’s 100% true,” said Hialeah Councilman Jesus Tundidor, noting that Republicans hold power in the city in part because more Republicans show up to vote in odd-year, municipal elections.

The 2016 presidential election was a reminder of how things can go wrong in a presidential year.

“Trump barely won Hialeah,” Tundidor said. “To me, it was very concerning.”

McClatchy staff writer Ben Wieder contributed to this report.