How Joe Biden's debate debacle could change Trump's VP pick calculus

After winnowing his list of potential running mates down to three, former President Donald Trump has said he knows which person he plans to pick.

But GOP consultants and some Republicans close to their party's presumptive 2024 White House nominee say President Joe Biden’s poor debate performance last week should trigger a reevaluation of Trump's VP selection process.

After all, Biden’s debate disaster is prompting calls for him to step aside, and if that happens Trump’s VP pick could be especially important when facing voters in November.

The incumbent Democratic presidential campaign and White House insist Biden isn't going anywhere. But some GOP insiders told USA TODAY that they believe it would help Trump to have a younger and more diverse running mate if the 81-year-old Biden gets replaced by Vice President Kamala Harris or someone else. Such a historic late-inning shakeup would upend Trump's current campaign strategy while underscoring the value in the Republican picking as a No. 2 someone like Cuban American U.S. Sen Marco Rubio, or the 39-year-old U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance.

"I do think it changes it," said a Republican close to the Trump campaign who discussed potential running mates with the former president before the debate. "It's probably more beneficial to the Marcos and J.D.s of the world."

Before the debate, Trump had narrowed the VP contenders down to Rubio, Vance and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, the Republican said, adding the debate isn't likely to change that, although "it wouldn't shock me if he was holding something in his back pocket."

All eyes on Rubio, Vance and Burgum

Shortly before Thursday's debate, Trump ally David Bossie - who helped run his 2016 campaign and is heavily involved in the 2024 effort as co-chair of the Republican National Convention - also confirmed that Trump has been focused on Rubio, Vance and Burgum.

"That's pretty solid," Bossie told USA TODAY when asked about reports identifying the final three contenders, adding: “You just never know, but those are three incredible picks for three different reasons."

Two other Trump campaign officials who are close to the VP selection process said they do not think the prospect of a new Democratic candidate replacing Biden would influence Trump's decision in any way. These sources said Trump would pick the person he thinks is best and that he's already made his mind up - it's really just a matter of the timing for the announcement.

Trump said at a campaign stop in Philadelphia before the debate that he knows who his running mate will be, and the individual would be at the debate. Rubio, Burgum, Vance and others who have been in the mix for VP, such as U.S. Reps Byron Donalds and Elise Stefanik, were all in Atlanta for a watch party and then to work reporters from the post-debate spin room.

“I think in his mind he knows exactly who the next vice president nominee is going to be and on his timeframe he’s going to share that with us," Corey Lewandowski, who served as Trump's campaign manager for part of the 2016 race and is now helping with the Republican convention, said on the spin room floor shortly before the debate.

Biden's poor debate performance may have changed the VP calculation for Trump though, or at least some allies and political experts believe it should.

"The likelihood of Biden staying on the ticket is certainly debatable and if it isn't going to be Biden it's going to be someone considerably younger than President Trump, so I think it argues to diversity, youth," as key factors in the selection, the Republican close to the Trump campaign told USA TODAY.

With Biden weakened by his debate performance, Trump may feel more emboldened to go with his heart and pick the person he likes best, even if that individual doesn't add much to the ticket. Some Trump allies hope that's the case.

“The weakness of the debate should give president Trump even more latitude to go with his gut," said Matt Schlapp, the head of the American Conservative Union.

Trump just needs to “pick a good partner, pick somebody who will be a good lieutenant, pick somebody whose going to be as loyal everyday as possible," added Schlapp, a longtime Trump supporter who previously ran the George W. Bush White House's political operation.

GOP consultant Alex Conant also said he believes that Trump may feel emboldened to pick somebody he likes "instead of somebody he needs." Yet the campaign also should be considering the possibility that Biden isn't the nominee, he said.

"If Biden remains the nominee, Trump just needs a VP pick that won't change the race's trajectory," Conant said. "But if Biden is replaced by a younger ticket, the whole dynamics of the race change."

GOP consultant Jamie Miller, the former executive director of the Republican Party of Florida, said that if Biden isn't the Democratic nominee it makes it more important for Trump to have a running mate who can bring in new voters.

“If they switch horses then I think the Trump campaign would say: Hey, who do we have on the ballot who expands the electorate for us?" Miller said.

Trump has talked about unveiling his running mate at the Republican National Convention, which kicks off on July 15, and may not know if Biden is out of the race by then. He could announce the pick at any time before then, but presidential campaign veterans say it would make sense for Trump to wait as long as possible to ensure Biden's poor debate performance and the ensuing handwringing among Democrats remains the focus of the race.

"I wouldn't be surprised if Trump pushes back his VP announcement," Conant said. "When your opposition is self imploding, there's no reason to make your own headlines."

Contributing: David Jackson

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Biden debate debacle should change Trump VP race, some in GOP say