2 of 3 Triangle, NC, counties at ‘very high’ fire danger risk. How to stay safe.
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What should I know? Two thirds of North Carolina is “abnormally dry” right now.
What should I share with family and friends? Dry conditions have put some Triangle counties at severe risk for fires.
Durham and Orange counties are at “very high” fire-danger risk, while Wake County is at “moderate” risk, according to the North Carolina Climate Office.
Here’s what that means for residents of the Triangle.
What do the levels of risk mean?
The state climate office uses five levels of fire risk, ranging from “low” to “extreme.” “Very high” is the second-most-severe ranking, where fires “start easily from all causes and immediately after ignition, spread rapidly,” according to the office’s website.
“Moderate” fire risk is the second-lowest level, where fire can start from accidental causes but the number of fire starts is low.
“Once you have an ignition source, how likely is it (for) a fire to start, to spread and stick around?” said Adam Terando, a U.S. Geological Survey research ecologist based in Raleigh. “That’s where the real risk factors come in.”
Scientists evaluate fire risk based on weather, humidity, topography and vegetation conditions in an area.
This risk is especially tied to outdoor fires, but hot and dry conditions can raise the risk in residential areas as well.
“When you mix houses in with vegetation, there is a threat that a fire could move from vegetation to a structure,” said Cary Fire Department Deputy Chief Michael Martin said. “That’s something we do everything in our power to prevent.”
What can I do to stay safe?
The State Forest Service is discouraging all outdoor burning, Wake County Ranger Cory Sharp said. Members of the public should also avoid personal fireworks use and go to an organized fireworks display as the Fourth of July nears.
Extra diligence is key, especially for outdoor activities like bonfires and barbecues.
“Make sure there’s a water hose or a shovel or something,” Martin said. “You monitor that fire until you know that the embers are cool. That’s not just for now, that’s for all throughout the year.”
Practice fire safety inside the home as well.
If a fire does start, Martin said the No. 1 priority is getting to a safe place.
“Fires outside can change in an instant,” he said. “Depending on wind, how dry it is, it can spread very fast. So call 911. Get us on the way.”
Trying to put out a fire is fine, but only if you’re safely away from it, Martin said. If it’s growing very large, starting to block an escape path or jumping to a deck or siding, move out of the way.
How are firefighters responding?
Fire departments prepare for emergencies year round, but the heat requires more caution. Because of the protective gear they wear, firefighters can overheat or become dehydrated. In extreme heat, the Cary Fire Department tries to send more personnel to fires to give individual firefighters more breaks, Martin said.
For the forest service, which deals more with rural, outdoor fires, the main change is increased awareness, Sharp said.
“We identify certain times of the year when we know there’s going to be an increase in outside fires,” he said.
Why is there increased fire risk?
Heat indexes in the Triangle will hover between 100 and 105 degrees Fahrenheit this week, forecasters predict.
About two-thirds of the state is “abnormally dry,” according to the National Integrated Drought Information System.
That indicates more severe drought could emerge, though tropical storms brewing could change that, State Climate Office Director Kathie Dello told The News & Observer in an email.
Between June 1 and June 20, 2024, there were 237 wildfires, according to the forest service. For that same period in 2023, there were 208 wildfires, and in the 2022 period, 346 wildfires.
As summers get hotter, higher fire risk may become more routine, Terando said. Consistently higher temperatures can lead to a “thirstier atmosphere,” he said, exacerbating water scarcity and dry vegetation.
Ultimately, these weather and climate conditions and their associated fire risk hinge on greenhouse gas emissions, he said.
“It’s all dependent on what are humans doing now,” Terando said.
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