Will KU basketball cover massive spread vs. Eastern Illinois? Game keys & prediction

The No. 5-ranked University of Kansas men’s basketball team will play Eastern Illinois on Tuesday.

The Jayhawks (5-1) beat Tennessee to earn third place in the Maui Invitational on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Panthers dominated Eureka on Saturday.

KU coach Bill Self said he was pleased with the Jayhawks’ 2-1 trip to Hawaii. This is their first game since returning to Lawrence.

Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.

No. 5 Kansas vs. Eastern Illinois

When/where: 7:30 p.m. Central, Allen Fieldhouse (Lawrence)

TV/Streaming: ESPN+

Opponent’s record: 3-4

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 345

Betting line: Kansas is a 35-point favorite

All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.

Eastern Illinois Team Strengths

• Deep team: The Panthers have deep rotations, ranking No. 30 in the nation in bench minutes percentage (39.5).

• Old school play: Eastern Illinois loves to score inside the arc: 57.9% of their points come on 2-pointers, ranking No. 50 in the nation.

• Crashing the boards: The Panthers have an offensive rebounding rate of 30.8%. For reference, KU’s starting five has combined to grab 20.4% of available misses.

Eastern Illinois Team Weaknesses

• Offensive struggles: Eastern Illinois struggles with scoring efficiency, ranking No. 352 in the country (40.9%) in effective field goal percentage.

• Nothing easy inside: The Panthers might score most of their points inside the arc, but they aren’t very efficient. EIU ranks No. 358 in 2-point percentage (38.5).

• Defending the rim: Eastern Illinois’ defense struggles to defend 2-pointers, with opponents shooting 53.7%. That percentage ranks No. 324 in the country.

Eastern Illinois Name to Know

6-foot-7 Redshirt Sophmore Kooper Jacobi (No. 40)

+ Team leading scorer (11.1 points per game)

+ Consistent on the glass (team-leading 7.4 rebounds per game)

- Not much of a passer (0.4 APG)

- Inefficient scorer (43.2% on field goals, 25.0% from 3)

- Doesn’t get to the line (14 free-throw attempts in seven games)

Tale of the Tape

If EIU’s Kyndal Davis gets the ball, there’s a decent chance he’s taking it to the rack. Davis is shooting 72.7% on field goals at the rim. On this play, Davis corralled the steal and passed it to his teammate, who found a streaking Davis for the fast-break dunk.

As noted earlier, Eastern Illinois loves to score within the arc. So instead of trying to cover corners on breaks, it is probably more prudent that the Jayhawks form a wall around the paint and force the Panthers to shoot from distance whenever possible.

via GIPHY

EIU’s big man, Jermaine Hamlin, has some post skills, as shown on this play. In the highlight, Hamlin created space for himself and canned a hook shot over an Illinois defender who recovered too late.

Hunter Dickinson will likely get the assignment here, so he needs to ensure he doesn’t bite on Hamlin’s fakes or foul him in the process.

Game prediction

This game isn’t really a concern for Kansas.

Eastern Illinois isn’t very good on either side of the ball. It’ll likely be a blowout, but here’s what Kansas fans should pay attention to instead.

1. How do the freshmen and newcomers look?

Self spoke about the sample size being too small to draw conclusions on Monday, but they should get an extended run in this game. How they play in the next month or two will help shape who Self trusts come March.

2. How does KU’s perimeter shooting look?

Kansas doesn’t take a ton of 3-pointers, ranking No. 258 in 3-point attempts per game. Although the Jayhawks shoot 40.6% from deep, they aren’t a team that relies on much of their scoring from deep, and the 3-point volume may be a concern all season.

But this game should provide KU with open looks, and it’ll be important for KU to show it can make them.

Kansas should roll to an easy victory here.

Kansas 83, Eastern Illinois 60

Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Eastern Illinois (+35)

Shreyas’ season record: 4-1

Shreyas’ record against the spread: 4-1

KU player to watch: Johnny Furphy

The Australia native has looked solid in about 15 minutes a game, shooting 36.8% from deep and 53.8% from the floor. He’s been impressive all around, contributing in a number of different areas for this KU team.

He should get extended play vs. Eastern Illinois, so if he can play well, he could earn more rotation minutes as Self figures out his bench rotation. Plus, if he increases his 3-point attempts (currently 3.2 per game), then he could help solve the matter of KU’s shot volume from the outside.