La Nina weather 70% likely to develop in Aug-Oct, says US forecaster

Rahul Paswan

July 11, 2024 at 11:53 a.m.·2 min read

By Rahul Paswan

(Reuters) - There is a 70% chance of the La Nina weather pattern, characterized by cold temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, developing during the August to October period, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday.

The current neutral phase between La Nina and El Nino weather patterns is expected to continue for several months, with a 79% chance of La Nina November through January, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT

La Nina, a climate pattern that begins with colder-than-normal ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is linked to both floods and drought, as well as an increase in the frequency of hurricanes in the Caribbean.

CONTEXT

The cycle between El Nino, La Nina, and a neutral phase typically lasts two to seven years.

Experts have said Latin America and the Caribbean should brace for the arrival of La Nina.

In rice- and palm oil-producing Southeast Asian countries, meanwhile, wet weather could boost yields, while a normal Indian monsoon could support production and farm incomes.

KEY QUOTES

"The transition to La Nina will favor at least normal rainfall across the main growing areas in India... The main areas to watch for crop and supply chain issues look to be across southeast Europe, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile," AccuWeather's lead international forecaster Jason Nicholls said.

"In our view, a transition to La Nina conditions, which the U.S. National Weather Service consider more likely than not to occur in July-September 2024, will support a rebound in rice production in Southeast Asia, areas of which had seen below-average rainfall during the now dissipated 2023-2024 El Nino event," analysts at BMI said in a note on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru; Editing by Rosalba O'Brien)

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