Manitoba flood: Officials express 'cautious optimism' about 2nd crest

Manitoba flood officials are breathing easier today as the first crest on the Assibiniboine River is nearly in Winnipeg and the dikes have held.

"How I'd describe where we're at today, I'd say is probably a sense of cautious optimism," Emergency Measures Minister Steve Ashton said.

Communities along the swollen river went from unprepared to ready in just four days, as a result of a quick mobilization, he said, noting there's no way the province would have been ready without the 500 members of the Canadian Armed Forces, who may soon see their deployment reduced.

"I want to put on the record again, they were there for us. Thank you to the military, you did it again," Ashton said.

The worries are not completely over, however, because a second crest on the Assiniboine has started rising in western Manitoba.

The provincial government and military members are working with municipalities along the Assiniboine and are on standby in case anything, like a breach, happens.

The military's Aurora aircraft actually detected several leaks in the dikes during the night and crews were immediately dispatched to fix them, provincial officials said on Thursday.

The first crest of the river reached the Portage Diversion Wednesday night with a peak flow of 52,100 cubic feet per second (cfs) — 34,100 cfs through the Portage Diversion while 18,000 cfs remained on the river towards Winnipeg.

That 52,100 cfs is like 35 Olympic-sized swimming pools going by each minute. On average, the flow rate of the river is only 1,600 cfs.

​Kam Blight, reeve of the Rural Municipality of Portage la Prairie, said there have been no issues with leaks in his RM but the concern now is if any strong winds come along, whipping the water and putting more strain on the dikes.

​The biggest worry is in the Delta Beach area, which is vulnerable to winds and waves from Lake Manitoba. Levels on the lake are rising due to the water from the Portage Diversion being emptied into it.

The diversion is a 29-kilometre channel that redirects floodwaters from the Assiniboine north to Lake Manitoba.

Despite the water coming in, the RM has lifted its mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders for Delta Beach properties located along the diversion.

The second crest is moving into the province as run-off from tributaries along the Assiniboine in both Saskatchewan and Manitoba flow into the river.

That crest is expected to reach St. Lazare, ​located near the Saskatchewan border at the forks of the Assiniboine and Qu'Appell rivers, on Thursday or Friday.

[PHOTOGALLERY]Many homes in the community are protected by a dike, which stands four feet higher than the 2011 flood level, but some are located outside the dike.

Of those, nine are experiencing flooding or seepage and three have been damaged by floodwaters from the first crest, the province said.

Provincial officials said Wednesday the water levels from the second crest will be lower than the first but last for a few days.

On Thursday, however, they changed their stance, saying the second crest will likely be above first peak but below 2011 levels.

"The forecast is for nothing like we saw in 2011" but there are concerns now for the Lake Manitoba and Lake St. Martin areas, Ashton said, echoing Blight's remarks.

It should reach Brandon on the weekend and in Winnipeg about four days later.

St. Lazare has been dealing with high water on both the Assiniboine and Qu'Appelle Rivers since June 30 and only on Wednesday night did the province send in sandbags to help.

"They came out yesterday [Tuesday] and it was so nice to see all the help that came out. I don't know offhand who organized it, but it was really nice to see volunteers from town come and sandbag to help," said Giselle Fouillard, whose home is surrounded by water.

Many people in the area have expressed anger on social media, saying they’ve been forgotten by the province.

But CAO Ricky Fouillard said the village didn't ask for help from the province until Wednesday.

Up until then, village officials figured they could handle the flood water on their own, he said.

They were keeping track of the water coming in from Saskatchewan and the overland flooding, and they were making sandbags for the community, but it just became too much, Fouillard said.

Owen Jessop, who lost his home to flooding in 2011, rebuilt on a pad raised about two metres higher than his old home. He is surrounded by water again, and the level is nearly up to his pad.

He and others in the community are waiting for information from the province about how high the water will get. But he’s not even sure what to make of any information they get.

“ I don't know what to believe anymore, I just believe what [I see]. I go out and look at my wall of my shop — my own personal gauge — that's what I believe," he said.

The flooding has been caused by torrential rains during the Canada Day weekend in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

Fifty municipalities and communities across Manitoba, mainly in the southwest and Interlake regions, have declared a state of local emergency since June 28, and 729 people have been forced from their homes and communities due to flooding in the province this year.

Combined with states of local emergency in Saskatchewan, there have been more than 110 municipalities under that banner, while the Manitoba government has declared a provincial state of emergency.

In addition to the Canadian Armed Forces, more than 330 staff from Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation, 20 staff from other government departments, 115 provincial department volunteers, ‎120 Manitoba Hydro volunteers and 75 redeployed forest firefighters from across the province are supporting the flood-fighting efforts in Manitoba.

Staff from the Alberta Emergency Management Agency are also providing assistance.