NCAA Tournament analysis with bracket tips + upset picks through 2024 Final Four
There had been speculation that Iowa State could jump to a No. 1 seed for the first time in program history after scoring a resounding victory over top-ranked Houston in Saturday’s Big 12 tournament championship game.
The Cyclones settled for a No. 2 as one of eight Big 12 programs in this year’s NCAA field. The Big 12 joins the SEC atop the list of conferences with the most teams selected.
This year’s top overall seed is defending champion Connecticut. The Huskies are joined on the 1-line by Purdue, Houston and North Carolina.
Upset winners in conference tournaments played havoc with the bubble teams. North Carolina State of the ACC, Oregon from the Pac-12, Duquesne of the Atlantic-10 and Drake of the Missouri Valley Conference likely wouldn’t have received bids had each not won its respective league tournament.
That pushed out teams like Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Indiana State and Pittsburgh, identified by the selection committee as the first four out.
So, who wins it all this year? Which favorites get knocked out early?
Here’s a breakdown of each region, with our Final Four prediction:
EAST
Connecticut did what the other No. 1 seeds couldn’t do: win the conference tournament. The Huskies have won 21 of 22 and are favored to become the first program to repeat at national champs since Florida in 2007.
UConn has the strength to repeat, but in the past 23 tournaments, only once has the final top-ranked team — the Huskies will become the final No. 1 ranked team in the AP poll Monday — won the national championship.
Omaha will be rocking if second seeded Iowa State faces 10th-seeded Drake in the second round.
Morehead State guard Riley Minix, who averages 21 points and 10 rebounds, is among this region’s unheralded stars.
Bracket tip: Not so fast, Huskies. The last six NCAA champions didn’t get past the second round.
Upset special: In a matchup of teams having magical seasons, Drake, the 10th seed, gets past seventh-seeded Washington State
Regional final: Iowa State reaches the Final Four for the first time since the 1944 national semifinals by defeating UConn.
SOUTH
The conference tournaments weren’t kind to the favorites in the South. Not until you reach the 11th seed, North Carolina State, do you find a league-tourney champ.
The region includes several feisty double-digit seeds. No. 12 James Madison is riding a 13-game winning streak. Oakland, the No. 14 seed, looks for its second NCAA victory under coach Greg Kampe, who is in his 40th season.
Who says the selection committee doesn’t have a sense of humor? They matched Nebraska against Texas A&M on the week Cornhuskers athletic director Trev Alberts stunned the university by announcing he was leaving ... for Texas A&M.
Bracket tip: Seventh-seeded Florida will open against either Boise State or Colorado, but the Gators were dealt a tough blow when center Micah Handlogten suffered a fractured leg during Sunday’s title game at the SEC tournament.
Upset special: James Madison keeps it rolling by taking down fifth-seeded Wisconsin.
Prediction: Houston over Kentucky.
MIDWEST
When Saint Peter’s was last seen in the NCAA Tournament, the Peacocks were a No. 15 seed about to take on an SEC power.
That was 2021, and you remember what happened: Saint Peter’s started a magical run to the Elite Eight by beating Kentucky.
This year? The Peacocks are once again a No. 15 seed, but this time the opponent is Tennessee.
Top-seeded Purdue is the mystery team among the top seeds. The Boilermakers rampaged through the Big Ten, have the nation’s top player in Zach Edey and have absolutely no NCAA Tournament luck. That same Saint Peter’s team took out Purdue, too.
It was worse last year, when the Boilermakers became the second No. 1 seed to lose its opener. Will Purdue respond the way Virginia did when the Cavaliers became the first team to lose to a No. 16? Virginia won the championship the next season.
Bracket tip: Since the bracket expanded to 64 teams in 1985, No. 9 seeds have a slight edge over No. 8s. In this region, TCU is the No. 9, Utah State the No. 8.
Upset special: Oregon, the No. 11 seed, takes down sixth-seeded South Carolina.
Regional final: Tennessee over Purdue.
WEST
Long Beach State determined it was time for a change. Don Monson, coach for the past 17 seasons, is out as soon as the 49ers’ season concludes.
That’s taking longer than expected.
By winning the Big West Tournament as the fourth seed, Long Beach State is in the NCAA field for the first time since 2012. Monson is unlikely to keep his job even after the NCAA tourney, which for LBSU begins with a battle against second-seeded Arizona.
But it’s a great story, and don’t count out a Monson-coached team. He took Gonzaga to the Elite Eight in 1999.
Bracket tip: The 12-over-5 upset didn’t happen last season, but in the previous three tournaments, a No. 12 seed had defeated a No. 5 at least twice. This region presents a strong possibility, with Grand Canyon over Saint Mary’s.
Upset special: No. 13 Charleston rides a 12-game winning streak into its battle with No. 4 Alabama. The Cougars are a deep team with great balance, and they pull off the stunner.
Regional final: Arizona over North Carolina, and the Wildcats make the short trip to Glendale for the Final Four.
Speaking of the Final Four ...
National champion: Houston over Arizona.
