The Road Ahead Uncertain for NDP

It’s like one of those days when brilliant sunshine alternates with thundershowers; you’re wandering outside, enjoying the fine weather and feeling optimistic, and then suddenly find yourself in a downpour, half-soaked and running for shelter.

That’s very much what the federal New Democratic Party is facing. By the evening of the May 2 election, the news for long-time NDP supporters was very good indeed. The party had gone from having 37 seats in the Commons to having 103 and Official Opposition status. The New Democrats had won 30 per cent of the popular vote. Their popular leader, Jack Layton, who had roared back from prostate cancer and a recent hip operation, conducted a stunning campaign, and, most significantly, wrested Quebec out of the hands of the sovereigntist Bloc Québécois.

Did The Globe and Mail stoke latent Canadian nationalism through its coverage of Nycole Turmel's affiliation with the Bloc? Read one expert's view here.

Yet, it’s hard to imagine a bigger setback than the one the NDP faces now; on Monday, August 22nd Jack Layton lost his battle with cancer, passing away peacefully at his Toronto home surrounded by family and friends.

And now the New Democrats face a Conservative majority government with which they share few values, and whose modus operandi – let’s not mince words here – is essentially “attack, smear, and destroy all opposition without mercy.” In short, Parliament will be a tough slog for the New Democrats, especially given the fact that 57 NDP members of Parliament are rookies, most lacking any legislative experience.

The NDP faces several challenges this fall. Among the most important is that the Conservatives’ impending “law and order” omnibus bill will have provisions allowing governments to easily access Canadians’ web-browsing histories. The NDP will have to convince the Canadian public that it is not “soft on crime” (expect to hear that phrase ad nauseum over the next few months), but is instead standing up for our basic privacy rights.

The New Democrats are also going to have to deal with the reality of the end of vote subsidies; the Conservatives are determined to end the system, as they have a distinct advantage in fundraising among their own constituencies. In fact, in the middle of writing this article, I received a fundraising phone call from the NDP, anticipating this development.

Deep party fractures threaten the NDP's ability to fulfill its role as an effective Official Opposition. Read more here.

Still, I’m told the NDP caucus is feeling fairly cocky. The New Democrats are quite proud of how they conducted themselves during the NDP filibuster in the brief legislative session in June that dealt with back-to-work legislation directed against striking postal workers. Moreover, they are looking around at their colleagues and are impressed with what they see – a heady collection of youthful energy, on one hand, and solid experience, on the other.

The caucus is a thoroughly diverse group, including not just the usual lawyer and union types, but also small-business owners, people who work in the building trades, musicians, university professors, high-school teachers, actors, IT people, journalists, economists, artists, public servants, HR professionals, a criminologist, a meteorologist, a former diplomat, an agronomist, a carpenter, a nurse, a real-estate agent, a doctor, and, not surprisingly, a gamut of environmental and community activists.

Of course, the individuals who received the most attention in the days after the election were the students who ran just so they could show the NDP flag in various ridings across Quebec, and, surprisingly enough, found themselves elected to the Parliament of Canada. But while they may be inexperienced, these young MPs can bring solid pressure to bear on education issues and sexual-health concerns, and, since they have the majority of their lives still ahead of them, they have the potential to bring some badly needed moral authority to debates over Canada’s long-term debt and environmental legacy.

The fact that the NDP has such a considerable number of young MPs, as well as 40 female MPs, will likely help firm up its already-strong support among women voters and young people. In the May 2 election, these two demographics largely eluded the Conservatives, who, thanks to the vagaries of our electoral system, obtained majority-government status with less than 40 per cent of the popular vote – and, in fact, gained 23 seats and achieved a majority government with only a two per cent increase in their popular vote.

It is perhaps too early to tell how the NDP will perform in Parliament, under intense media and public scrutiny. The caucus is largely unknown a fact made even more acute by the loss of Jack. On the other hand, the Harper government, and its aversion to democratic process and fair play, is very well known. Undoubtedly, at this very moment, there are multiple investigations into rookie NDP caucus members. Searches of Facebook pages, student newspapers, etc., will probably reveal a lot of silly nonsense, but, in today’s media climate, a risqué photo or a dalliance with Marxist or sovereigntist groups will generate a few days’ worth of outrageous headlines, and will be one more reason for cabinet ministers to avoid debating real issues on the floor of the Commons, and to instead simply denounce the Honourable Member in question as a traitor.

The Mark Newsroom weighs is on the Tory-NDP fight over separatist affiliations here.

Even if the NDP performs extremely well in Parliament, filling Hansard with brilliant defences of progressive Canadian values, there is no getting around the fact that a Harper majority government will give its concerns short shrift, to say the least. The NDP is going to have to look beyond Parliament if it wants to be truly effective as Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition.

This will entail a dedicated program of reaching out not just to supporters, but also to advocacy groups and ordinary Canadians who don’t usually vote NDP. The New Democrats will have to become sponsors of public debates, information sessions, and civic literacy programs. This means more than simply rallying public opinion, as important as that is. The NDP will have to show Canadians that it is truly listening to their concerns. It must demonstrate that it is prepared to do more than follow old patterns of political leadership; it must help Canadians discover their own political clout. This is the only way the NDP can seriously look to form a government in 2015.