Oscars Predictions: Best Picture – After Winning TIFF Audience Award, ‘American Fiction’ Is an Oscar Contender

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture

Paul Giamatti The Holdovers
Paul Giamatti The Holdovers

Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 20, 2023): “American Fiction,” Cord Jefferson’s blistering satire of race and media, captured the Toronto International Film Festival’s people’s choice award, which has raised its Oscar profile significantly.

The top prize has become one of the most vital predictors of awards season success. In past years, best picture winners such as Peter Farrelly’s “Green Book” (2018) and Chloe Zhao’s “Nomadland” (2020) made a winning stop at TIFF before getting Oscar glory. Other TIFF Audience Award recipients such as “The Fabelmans” (2022), “Belfast” (2021), “Jojo Rabbit” (2019), “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (2017) and “La La Land” (2016) are among the movies that went on to receive noms.

“The Holdovers” also gets a significant boost, after placing in the top three at TIFF.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

Listed producer credits are not final, and are subject to change. The Academy ultimately determines the official nominees.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

  1. Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
    Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan

  2. Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
    Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi

  3. Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone

  4. Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
    David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley, Robbie Brenner

  5. American Fiction” (MGM)
    Cord Jefferson, Jermaine Johnson, Nikos Karamigios, Ben LeClair

  6. The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
    Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson

  7. Past Lives” (A24)
    David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon

  8. The Zone of Interest” (A24)
    Ewa Puszczynska, James Wilson

  9. Origin” (Neon)
    Ava DuVernay, Paul Garnes

  10. Maestro” (Netflix)
    Fred Berner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Durning, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg

Next in Line

  1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
    Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg

  2. The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
    Quincy Jones, Scott Sanders, Steven Spielberg, Oprah Winfrey

  3. Ferrari” (Neon)
    Monika Bacardi, Thomas Hayslip, Andrea Iervolino, John Lesher, Michael Mann, Laura Rister, Thorsten Schumacher, Lars Sylvest, P.J. van Sandwijk, Gareth West

  4. Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
    Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion

  5. May December” (Netflix)
    Jessica Elbaum, Will Ferrell, Grant S. Johnson, Pamela Koffler, Tyler W. Konney, Sophie Mas, Natalie Portman, Christine Vachon

  6. The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios)
    Sarah Green, Brian Kavanaugh-Jones, Arnon Milchan

  7. The Iron Claw” (A24)
    Sean Durkin, Juliette Howell, Angus Lamont, Tessa Ross

  8. Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
    Ben Affleck, Madison Ainley, Jason Michael Berman, Matt Damon, David Ellison, Peter Guber, Jeff Robinov, Jesse Sisgold, Jon Weinbach

  9. Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
    Emerald Fennell, Josey McNamara, Tom Ackerley, Margot Robbie

  10. Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
    Craig Gillespie, Aaron Ryder, Teddy Schwarzman

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

  1. Rustin” (Netflix)
    Bruce Cohen, Tonia Davis

  2. All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Sarah Harvey

  3. Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics) **
    Alan Greisman, Hannah Leader, Rick Nicita, Robert Stillman, Meg Thomson

  4. Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
    Mark Huffam, Ridley Scott, Kevin J. Walsh

  5. The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)
    Jamie Foxx, Jenette Kahn, Celine Rattray, Adam Richman, Robert Shriver, Trudie Styler, Datari Turner

  6. American Symphony” (Netflix)
    Lauren Domino, Joedan Okun

  7. Fair Play” (Netflix)
    Leopold Hughes, Ben LeClair, Allan Mandelbaum, Tim White, Trevor White

  8. BlackBerry” (IFC Films)
    Fraser Ash, Niv Fichman, Kevin Krikst, Matthew Miller

  9. Priscilla” (A24)
    Sofia Coppola, Youree Henley, Lorenzo Mieli

  10. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.” (Lionsgate)
    Julie Ansell, James L. Brooks, Kelly Fremon Craig

Also In Contention

  1. Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)

  2. The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)

  3. Nyad” (Netflix)

  4. The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)

  5. Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)

  6. She Came to Me” (Vertical Entertainment)

  7. Asteroid City” (Focus Features)

  8. A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  9. The Teachers Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  10. The Royal Hotel” (Neon)

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**

  • A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios)

  • The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios)

  • Beau is Afraid” (A24)

  • Dream Scenario” (A24)

  • The Iron Claw” (A24)

  • Janet Planet” (A24) **

  • Past Lives” (A24)

  • Priscilla” (A24)

  • Showing Up” (A24)

  • Tuesday” (A24) **

  • When You Finish Saving the World” (A24)

  • You Hurt My Feelings” (A24)

  • The Zone of Interest” (A24)

  • Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)

  • The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)

  • Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios)

  • Foe” (Amazon MGM Studios)

  • Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)

  • Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)

  • Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films)

  • Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

  • Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)

  • The Pigeon Tunnel” (Apple Original Films)

  • Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” (Apple Original Films)

  • Across the River and Into the Trees” (Bleecker Street)

  • Golda” (Bleecker Street)

  • The Origin” (Bleecker Street)

  • Suzume” (Crunchyroll)

  • The YouTube Effect” (Drafthouse Films)

  • Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken” (DreamWorks Animation)

  • Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation)

  • Asteroid City” (Focus Features)

  • Every Body” (Focus Features)

  • The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

  • My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3” (Focus Features)

  • A Thousand and One” (Focus Features)

  • The Boy and the Heron” (GKids)

  • BlackBerry” (IFC Films)

  • Monica” (IFC Films)

  • R.M.N.” (IFC Films)

  • The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)

  • Migration” (Illumination)

  • Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)

  • The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination)

  • Evil Does Not Exist” (Janus Films)

  • Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)

  • The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate)

  • John Wick Chapter 4” (Lionsgate)

  • Joy Ride” (Lionsgate)

  • Baby Ruby” (Magnet Releasing)

  • Little Richard: I Am Everything” (Magnolia Pictures)

  • Master Gardener” (Magnolia Pictures)

  • The Stones and Brian Jones” (Magnolia Pictures)

  • Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania” (Marvel Studios)

  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)

  • The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)

  • Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)

  • The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)

  • Creed III” (MGM)

  • Landscape with Invisible Hand” (MGM)

  • American Fiction” (MGM)

  • The Eternal Memory” (MTV Documentary Films)

  • The Delinquents” (Mubi)

  • Fallen Leaves” (Mubi)

  • The Settlers” (Mubi)

  • Unclenching the Fists” (Mubi)

  • Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)

  • Eileen” (Neon)

  • Ferrari” (Neon)

  • How to Blow Up a Pipeline” (Neon)

  • La Chimera” (Neon)

  • Longlegs” (Neon)

  • Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon)

  • Origin” (Neon)

  • Perfect Days” (Neon)

  • Robot Dreams” (Neon)

  • The Royal Hotel” (Neon)

  • American Symphony” (Netflix)

  • Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget” (Netflix)

  • The Deepest Breath” (Netflix)

  • El Conde” (Netflix)

  • Fair Play” (Netflix)

  • The Killer” (Netflix)

  • Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)

  • Leo” (Netflix)

  • May December” (Netflix)

  • Maestro” (Netflix)

  • The Magician’s Elephant” (Netflix)

  • Miraculous: Ladybug & Cat Noir: The Movie” (Netflix)

  • The Monkey King” (Netflix)

  • Nimona” (Netflix)

  • Nyad” (Netflix)

  • Pain Hustlers” (Netflix)

  • Rebel Moon” (Netflix)

  • Reptile” (Netflix)

  • Rustin” (Netflix)

  • Society of the Snow” (Netflix)

  • Stamped from the Beginning” (Netflix)

  • About Dry Grasses” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Banel Et Adams” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • The Bastard” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Black Flies” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • The Breaking Ice” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • The Burti Flower” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Club Zero” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Daddio” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Ezra” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Finally Dawn” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Firebrand” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Four Daughters” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Goodbye Julia” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • In Restless Dreams: The Music of Paul Simon” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Hopeless” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • How to Have Sex” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • If Only I Could Hibernate” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Il Sol Dell’Avvenire” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Jeunesse” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • “L’Ete Dernier” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Le Regne Animal” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Lee” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Les Meutes” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Memory” (No U.S Distribution)

  • Monster” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • The Mother of All Lies” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • The New Boy” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • The Old Oak” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Omen” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • The Passion of Dodin Bouffant” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Rapito” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Rein a Perdre” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Rosalie” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • The Settlers” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Simple Comme Sylvain” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Terrestrial Verses” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Wildcat” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Untitled Diane Warren Documentary Project” (No U.S. Distribution)

  • Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures) **

  • Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)

  • PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie” (Paramount Pictures)

  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” (Paramount Pictures)

  • Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” (Paramount Pictures)

  • Please Don’t Destroy This Project” (Peacock)

  • Elemental” (Pixar)

  • Black Ice” (Roadside Attractions)

  • Camp Hideout” (Roadside Attractions)

  • Dreamin’ Wild” (Roadside Attractions)

  • The Last Rider” (Roadside Attractions)

  • Moving On” (Roadside Attractions)

  • The Pod Generation” (Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment)

  • Somewhere in Queens” (Roadside Attractions)

  • All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • Magazine Dreams” (Searchlight Pictures) **

  • Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures) **

  • Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • Theater Camp” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)

  • The Equalizer 3” (Sony Pictures)

  • No Hard Feelings” (Sony Pictures)

  • Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)

  • Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • The Miracle Club” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • Shadya” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • Shortcomings” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • The Teachers’ Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • They Shot the Piano Player” (Sony Pictures Classics)

  • Cocaine Bear” (Universal Pictures)

  • The Exorcist: Believer” (Universal Pictures)

  • Fast X” (Universal Pictures)

  • M3gan” (Universal Pictures)

  • Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

  • She Came to Me” (Vertical Entertainment)

  • Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” (Warner Bros.)

  • Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

  • Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)

  • The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

  • The Flash” (Warner Bros.)

  • Wonka” (Warner Bros.)

  • Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Walt Disney Pictures)

  • The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)

  • Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)

2022 category winner: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang (producers)

** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.

Oscars Predictions Categories


About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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