Penn State football bold predictions: How will the Nittany Lions fare in the 2024 season?
Penn State can officially turn its eyes to the 2024 season after the 2023 season ended Monday night with current Big Ten school Michigan defeating future Big Ten school Washington to win the national title, 34-13.
The Nittany Lions will not face the Wolverines this year, but will face the Huskies.
Let’s take a look at five bold predictions for the season, including one involving a national title game participant, and one national prediction.
Penn State has two players surpass 1,000 rushing yards
I don’t know that any offensive position will be more positively impacted by offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s arrival than the running backs. That bodes very well for Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton. The tandem has approached 2,000 combined yards in the last two years but didn’t get over the hump in either season. This year, I think both blow past it. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is closer to 1,200 yards each rather than just 1,000. Kotelnicki’s offense is likely to emphasize the running game and should create space for both Allen and Singleton to operate in. In fact, Singleton especially should benefit from the wide zone concepts Kotelnicki runs, with the running back running outside until a lane opens up to burst downfield and break off a big gain. While this may not seem bold to some, it’s a stark contrast to the backfield that didn’t have either back eclipse the 1,000 yard mark in 2023.
The Nittany Lions finally defeat the Buckeyes...
Penn State was in great position to upset Ohio State in 2023, but a miserable offensive performance made it nearly impossible. That shouldn’t be the case with Kotelnicki at the controls in 2024, and the defense should still be one of the best in the country. On the other side of the matchup, Ohio State should be better at quarterback with former Kansas State QB Will Howard replacing Kyle McCord, who is off to Syracuse, but losing Marvin Harrison Jr. at wide receiver should really hurt the offense. Former Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins should be elite out of the backfield, but there are enough questions about the unit that it may take a step back. The biggest factor in the matchup? This year it’s in Beaver Stadium, and that could be what flips it into Penn State’s favor for the first time since 2016.
...but still lose two games
This isn’t about the quality of Penn State’s team next year but more about the schedule. The program has several difficult road matchups — heading to USC, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Purdue and West Virginia — in a conference that is one of the two clear best in college football. Since these are bold predictions, I’ll say the Nittany Lions lose their first game of the year to a good but not great USC team just before the bye, and follow it with a second straight loss against Wisconsin in Madison after the bye. The Trojans should have an elite offense again and can’t possibly be worse on defense this year, while the Badgers are heading into a second year under head coach Luke Fickell and should be greatly improved. Those losses may seem like a massive problem for the program, but this is a new college football world and two losses may be the norm for even elite teams.
Penn State hosts a College Football Playoff game
Which takes us here. Despite those two losses, I still think the Nittany Lions will finish in the five to eight range in the final College Football Playoff rankings, giving them a playoff game at Beaver Stadium. There is a lot at play here, but I still don’t think they will be able to win the Big Ten, leaving the Nittany Lions outside of the top four in all likelihood. Two losses should be few enough to get in and stay outside the bottom four teams — even if it’s at No. 8 — with more losses coming across the board next year in the top two conferences in college football. The Big Ten and SEC are going to be well-represented next year in the first 12-team playoff, and I think there’s a very real chance that seven teams come from those two conferences.
A three-loss team makes the playoff
The groundwork for this was laid by the College Football Playoff selection committee this season when it included one-loss Alabama over undefeated Florida State. Yes, the injury to FSU quarterback Jordan Travis had a massive impact on that, but it’s clear that the Big Ten and SEC are separating themselves from the rest of the conferences — so clear that Florida State has begun the process to leave the ACC. So, if a team like Washington or Ohio State, or LSU or Alabama has three losses and an ACC or Big 12 team like FSU or Kansas State has two losses, I tend to think the committee will defer to the stronger conference. And I think this year’s choice to leave an ACC team like Florida State out will become the norm rather than an outlier.
