Pollster warns only one election question to be answered: ‘How big is the Tory loss?’

A leading pollster has warned that defeat for the Tories in the general election next week is now unavoidable and the only question remaining is how much Rishi Sunak’s party loses by.

The assessment by Techne UK’s chief executive Michela Morizzo - Italy’s equivalent of Professor Sir John Curtice - comes as her company’s tracker poll for The Independent shows that Labour goo into the final seven-day stretch with a 22 point lead over the Tories.

Labour are on 41 per cent (down one) with the Tories languishing on 19 per cent for a third week in a row and Reform UK just two points behind still on 17 per cent. The Lib Dems are on 12 per cent and Greens on 5 per cent meaning that the five main parties almost completely unchanged from last week.

It means that the final onslaught unleashed by Rishi Sunak in the head-to-head debate on Wednesday attacking Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer on tax and immigration had almost no impact,, the same as most of his tactics throughout a problematic campaign.

Instead, the Tories continue to be dogged by their own self inflicted wounds particularly the gambling scandal and before that Mr Sunak leaving the D-Day commemorations early.

Ms Morizzo now believes that there is nothing he can do to turn things around in such a small space of time.

She told The Independent: “With less than one full week before the British electorate go to the general election ballot boxes our regular tracker poll of Westminster voting intentions confirms what we have known now for sometime. There continues to be no closing of any gap between Labour and Conservatives continuing at a 22 per cent Labour lead.

“If this wasn’t bad enough though for the Conservatives the steady rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK throughout the campaign to its position now 17 percent points of national vote - a rise of four to five polling points across the last four weeks will further squeeze and damage the Conservatives already faltering chances.

Rishi Sunak has been mentioned in barely 1% of the Conservatives’ online adverts (Phil Noble/PA) (PA Wire)
Rishi Sunak has been mentioned in barely 1% of the Conservatives’ online adverts (Phil Noble/PA) (PA Wire)

“There can be no doubt that the data shows clearly it is now too late to save the Conservatives - the election is lost for them, the only question is how great this loss will ultimately be. Abstention rate and Reform UK voters will make the difference!”

To underline the point, Electoral Calculus predicts that if this poll was the result of an election Labour would have a majority of 268, the Lib Dems would be the official oppposition with 75 seats, the Tories stranded in third with 48 seats and Reform on a stunning 19 seats.

The breakdown of the data continues to make depressing reading for the Tories. For a third week in a row Leave voters from 2016 are more likely to vote Reform than Conservative by 28 per cent to 22 percent.

Less than four in 10 (38 per cent) of the Tory voters from 2019 have stuck with the party now, while Labour leads in every age, education and socio-economic category.

In a sign that voters are despondent about the choices as many as a third (33 per cent) may not vote with 24 per cent deciding not to cast their vote and another 9 per cent uncertain.